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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Will this be the warmest Oct on record for anyplace? 

It's gonna' be right up there considering there is no significant stretches of cool weather modeled out through day 10.

I had to go into metro west area for work on Wednesday and I couldn't believe how some of the community gardens I saw were still in full production mode including tomatoes still growing!  

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Tom12309

Tom12309

Posted
Posted

I listen to internet radio from the south bay area and their traffic reported on a road closing because of a house fire overnight that morphed into a 200+ acre wildfire with at least four structures consumed and whole neighborhoods evacuated, air tankers and dozens of ground apparatus in the fight in Boulder Creek.   Thursday afternoon it was 320 acres and 30% contained but some people were being let back in.  Kind of a different world.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's gonna' be right up there considering there is no significant stretches of cool weather modeled out through day 10.

I had to go into metro west area for work on Wednesday and I couldn't believe how some of the community gardens I saw were still in full production mode including tomatoes still growing!  

Yep. We green. But, it's turning.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I took a peak. Kind of reminds me a bit of the Osippee downslope event. Completely different wx occurred obviously, but that profile probably wasn't too far off to help take a strong mtn top wind ans accelerate it downward. COMET has a good module on mtn wave and downslope winds. I'd be fascinated if your WFO ever ran a case study on that. It still blows my mind.  The locals keep talking about it. What's also interesting is that it caused damage at my friends place on Squam (downwind from Red Hill) and also in the higher hills around Center Harbor. Yet nothing where we are on the Center Harbor/Moultonboro line. 

I have a pin in that event myself. If I ever get some free time I would like to start digging into some of these interesting local events around here. I still have a wake low case study I want to do that had MISM1 gusting to 50 knots behind a departing MCS one morning in like 2013. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I have a pin in that event myself. If I ever get some free time I would like to start digging into some of these interesting local events around here. I still have a wake low case study I want to do that had MISM1 gusting to 50 knots behind a departing MCS one morning in like 2013. 

Get to work. Not like you're building a house or anything.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Bosart's map discussion of the event was pretty fascinating. Those 2 km simulations accurately showing a 65 mph wind max on the downstream slopes in Sonoma County were impressive. Conditions were just perfect for that to occur. Move the inversion 50 mb either way and it probably doesn't get as extreme as it did.

Would love to see that. Link?

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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Posted
3 hours ago, Tom12309 said:

I listen to internet radio from the south bay area and their traffic reported on a road closing because of a house fire overnight that morphed into a 200+ acre wildfire with at least four structures consumed and whole neighborhoods evacuated, air tankers and dozens of ground apparatus in the fight in Boulder Creek.   Thursday afternoon it was 320 acres and 30% contained but some people were being let back in.  Kind of a different world.  

I had this idea several years ago for homes out west to put fire sensors around the perimeter of the property and if there is a fire to pump water from underground storage tanks of captured rainwater through sprinklers on the roof and around the house.  Everything is doable except for the rainwater capture.  In many western states you have no right to capture rainfall.  While it might not save every house, if the dousing was done at the right time, it would prevent a lot of the damage that we are seeing but I guess it makes more sense to burn everything than sequester a few thousand gallons of rain water to help prevent it.

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SteveVa

SteveVa

Posted
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42 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I had this idea several years ago for homes out west to put fire sensors around the perimeter of the property and if there is a fire to pump water from underground storage tanks of captured rainwater through sprinklers on the roof and around the house.  Everything is doable except for the rainwater capture.  In many western states you have no right to capture rainfall.  While it might not save every house, if the dousing was done at the right time, it would prevent a lot of the damage that we are seeing but I guess it makes more sense to burn everything than sequester a few thousand gallons of rain water to help prevent it.

I've lived in a Mediterranean country for quite some time - this works. Every summer I have seen hundreds, if not thousands, of homes saved by constantly drenching them. Yard and garden will burn down, but the house will be spared. 

To be fair most houses in that part of the world are concrete/cinder block. Maybe that explains why we very rarely hear about casualties and structure damages resulting from wildfires from that region. Of course, the notable exception is Portugal recently.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, rimetree said:

This is pretty interesting: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/. In NH, I was somewhat surprised to see Rockingham Cty second from bottom for 1-day record, but in 4th place for 3-day record (2015). That was a pretty amazing period.

Looks like fake news to me. 16.2" on the 28th and 26.0" on the 29th? West Hampstead coop only has 23.1 total from those two days. Me thinks someone on CoCoRaHS listed their storm total (26.0") on the 29th, but forgot to subtract the 16.2" that fell the day before. 

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Why NCEI (nee NCDC) would use that data for extremes is beyond me. Too inconsistent/incorrect for records in my opinion.

It appears we also QCed that out of our own LCO that day, but NCEI must be downloading that data directly from CoCoRaHS and not the local WFOs.

And they used MWN to show the Coos county extremes. i am no expert, but i am pretty sure snowfall at 6k elevation is not representative of the entire county. I am not doubting that MWN had the highest values, but that should have been QC'd out in my non-pro met opinion.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Just now, SJonesWX said:

And they used MWN to show the Coos county extremes. i am no expert, but i am pretty sure snowfall at 6k elevation is not representative of the entire county. I am not doubting that MWN had the highest values, but that should have been QC'd out in my non-pro met opinion.

That's a little harder to remove since they are a reporting obs/coop station. I agree it's not representative, but it's not bad data either. I think their "lower elevation" record in Coos is around 50" in 3 days.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

That's a little harder to remove since they are a reporting obs/coop station. I agree it's not representative, but it's not bad data either. I think their "lower elevation" record in Coos is around 50" in 3 days.

Berlin reported 56" from the Nov. 1943 paste bomb.  Once there's that much snow, 56 is "around 50".

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Feels weird whenever I take a quick check at MEX guidance, see the dates and temps, and get more of a feeling like it's a cool shot in August instead of reality in October. 

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/20/2017  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  39  72| 42  76| 46  70| 55  68| 55  67| 45  60| 37  65| 41 33 56
 TMP  44  56| 46  59| 52  61| 58  61| 58  57| 48  49| 42  54| 45      
 DPT  40  48| 45  48| 51  57| 58  61| 56  54| 45  40| 37  43| 42      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  CL| CL      
 WND   4   5|  1   5|  2   6|  3   9|  9   6|  3  10| 12  14|  5      
 P12   3   0|  4   3|  4  10| 36  74| 83  53| 52  35| 23   9| 18 21 20
 P24       3|      4|     13|     80|    100|     60|     23|       31
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   4|  4   4|  3   1|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      3|      5|      4|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1  18| 20   1|  1   1|  1   0|  1      
 T24        |  0    |  0    |  2    | 32    |  2    |  1    |  2      
 PZP   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2      
 PSN   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  2   3| 11   1|  0      
 PRS   0   0|  1   1|  1   1|  1   1|  1   1|  2   2|  0   0|  1      
 TYP   R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|
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