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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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Just now, HarveyLeonardFan said:

How can you call it a successful forecaster? Millions of people were driving from one end of Florida to the other like chickens with their heads cut off.

What does that have to do with the forecast? That has to do with people not listening to and/or understanding the forecast.

Both coasts were always a threat for hurricane conditions. NHC at no time stated otherwise.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What does that have to do with the forecast? That has to do with people not listening to and/or understanding the forecast.

Both coasts were always a threat for hurricane conditions. NHC at no time stated otherwise.

We're you impressed with the 0 foot storm surge values in fort Lauderdale and parts of the Palm beaches when 5-10 feet was predicted?

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Just now, HarveyLeonardFan said:

We're you impressed with the 0 foot storm surge values in fort Lauderdale and parts of the Palm beaches when 5-10 feet was predicted?

Again you misinterpret what NHC actually does. They are not predicting the expected surge, they are forecasting the maximum potential surge (10% exceedence level).

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I can tell you right now, the number one thing that will come out of this service assessment is that there is too much focus on the centerline of the NHC forecast track. That is a more than fair criticism, and there is plenty of blame to go around from public, to media, to NHC themselves. This map issued at 2 AM Friday morning at a glance says MIA is in trouble.

59b75da5aa388_download(1).png.bf9949865fdf2276da2963154d4a70cb.png

The reality? MIA and APF were about equally likely to experience hurricane force winds as of that 2 AM Friday issuance. 

download.png.9326373cba360b49d6db387b86efe6e2.png

The second thing to come out of the service assessment will be communication. Because anyone who evacuated the east coast for the west either wasn't listening or wasn't being told the whole story.

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Despite my criticism nhc provides a great service and even though I liked Neil Frank and Bob sheets in 1985 Gloria and 1991 Bob none of us civilians could access their data or discussions.

Times sure have changed. Within one minute during a hurricane anywhere in America we're able to access coverage from just about all the local television affiliates in the affected areas. Great coverage, great access.

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7 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

If people don't listen, or understand the forecast nhc needs to appoint a director who has the communication skills to make them understand. I'm not just busting on them for a bad forecast. Bob sheets and Neil Frank were better communicators. The nhc needs a strong leader.

Go and talk to your reps about that one. The NHC probably should have a director appointed by the time hurricane season comes around. Not that Rappaport isn't capable, but he's doing the job of two people at the moment. They have three pretty high level vacancies during their busiest time of year. 

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It's outrageous there are multiple high level vacancies but in a republican controlled government destined to prove that big government is a bad thing no one should be surprised.

ole Rick Scott all of a sudden loves big government especially since it's a ticket to try and win a 2018 Senate seat a race in which he's the clear under dog.

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3 hours ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

It's outrageous there are multiple high level vacancies but in a republican controlled government destined to prove that big government is a bad thing no one should be surprised.

ole Rick Scott all of a sudden loves big government especially since it's a ticket to try and win a 2018 Senate seat a race in which he's the clear under dog.

make NHC Great Again.

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5 hours ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

If people don't listen, or understand the forecast nhc needs to appoint a director who has the communication skills to make them understand. I'm not just busting on them for a bad forecast. Bob sheets and Neil Frank were better communicators. The nhc needs a strong leader.

You can't make someone understand something.  You can communicate something several ways but can't make someone understand something.  That's up to the individual.  You can't put someone not thinking on the NHC. 

5 hours ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

It's outrageous there are multiple high level vacancies but in a republican controlled government destined to prove that big government is a bad thing no one should be surprised.

ole Rick Scott all of a sudden loves big government especially since it's a ticket to try and win a 2018 Senate seat a race in which he's the clear under dog.

lol - NHC positions are not political appointments.  They are jobs that people need to apply for and no one is applying, how is that Congresses or the Executive branches problem?  You can't fill a position if you don't have a qualified applicant.

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6 hours ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

It's outrageous there are multiple high level vacancies but in a republican controlled government destined to prove that big government is a bad thing no one should be surprised.

ole Rick Scott all of a sudden loves big government especially since it's a ticket to try and win a 2018 Senate seat a race in which he's the clear under dog.

How hammered were you last night?

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6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I can tell you right now, the number one thing that will come out of this service assessment is that there is too much focus on the centerline of the NHC forecast track. That is a more than fair criticism, and there is plenty of blame to go around from public, to media, to NHC themselves. This map issued at 2 AM Friday morning at a glance says MIA is in trouble.

59b75da5aa388_download(1).png.bf9949865fdf2276da2963154d4a70cb.png

The reality? MIA and APF were about equally likely to experience hurricane force winds as of that 2 AM Friday issuance. 

download.png.9326373cba360b49d6db387b86efe6e2.png

The second thing to come out of the service assessment will be communication. Because anyone who evacuated the east coast for the west either wasn't listening or wasn't being told the whole story.

Even the cone is a mess. Everyone wants to know if it's going to hit them or not. I get the cone, but the public does not. I feel like we go through this every year. All we can do is communicate as best as possible....but in the end...the national media claiming "the biggest storm ever in the Atlantic." will cause panic ans scare the sh*t out of everyone. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the cone is a mess. Everyone wants to know if it's going to hit them or not. I get the cone, but the public does not. I feel like we go through this every year. All we can do is communicate as best as possible....but in the end...the national media claiming "the biggest storm ever in the Atlantic." will cause panic ans scare the sh*t out of everyone. 

Well and now the stories of people who rode the storm out are coming. Like the folks in the Keys that are happy they stayed because they didn't die and were able to save their boats. Except they forgot that without power they can't cook all their food, and now are in danger of running out before the roads are open.

You don't just evacuate because of the imminent threat to your life, you can evacuate because the area may not be immediately habitable after the storm.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Well and now the stories of people who rode the storm out are coming. Like the folks in the Keys that are happy they stayed because they didn't die and were able to save their boats. Except they forgot that without power they can't cook all their food, and now are in danger of running out before the roads are open.

You don't just evacuate because of the imminent threat to your life, you can evacuate because the area may not be immediately habitable after the storm.

Cannot say this enough. I told a family member riding it out on St Thomas that he may want to get out. Yeah ok....you survived the storm, but good luck with the infrastructure after. I don't know how he's doing...but you bet your arse I would not be there unless I had a 12 gauge with me. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Cannot say this enough. I told a family member riding it out on St Thomas that he may want to get out. Yeah ok....you survived the storm, but good luck with the infrastructure after. I don't know how he's doing...but you bet your arse I would not be there unless I had a 12 gauge with me. 

Forecast for today at EYW 89/80. No thanks with all that standing floodwater around and no AC. No ice to keep food cold.

And it sounds like they won't be able to open up the road past MM74 until at least tomorrow.

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2 hours ago, MetHerb said:

You can't make someone understand something.  You can communicate something several ways but can't make someone understand something.  That's up to the individual.  You can't put someone not thinking on the NHC. 

lol - NHC positions are not political appointments.  They are jobs that people need to apply for and no one is applying, how is that Congresses or the Executive branches problem?  You can't fill a position if you don't have a qualified applicant.

I can guarantee you there are people applying for the director position on USA Jobs, but wheels move very slowly at NWS/NOAA like any other government agencies and NWS already have troubles filling vacancies. They want to make sure they're hiring the right person through a rigorous process.  It is what it is...

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With dews 65-70 Thursday into early next week..you feel for anyone that uninstalled. Reinstalls coming 

lol. Are you  serious? Dews and warmth in mid Sept are not the same uncomfortable level as in June, July and August.

#hypefail

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the cone is a mess. Everyone wants to know if it's going to hit them or not. I get the cone, but the public does not. I feel like we go through this every year. All we can do is communicate as best as possible....but in the end...the national media claiming "the biggest storm ever in the Atlantic." will cause panic ans scare the sh*t out of everyone. 

I have always looked at the cone as only as good as that particular forecast / advisory time period and will almost, undoubtedly change at the next  advisory.   Plus it shows a range of the track with the center not necessarily through the center of the cone. 

Thst is what I see.

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Curious...when you have a situation such as tomorrow where one model (in this case the GFS) is several degrees warmer than another model (in this case the NAM)?  Looking at bufkit soundings for Waterbury, CT it looks like the GFS is mixing much higher than the NAM is tomorrow which would explain the warmer sfc temps from the GFS.  What are some signals/clues anyone who forecasts highs/lows looks at which may guide which direction to go?  I was looking at projected cloud cover, direction/intensity of sfc winds, temps at 925mb and 850mb.

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