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Fall 2017 Banter Thread


WeatherFeen2000
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To date, New York City (Central Park) has had no minimum temperatures below 50°.  Since 1869, only nine previous years saw the first sub-50° reading after October 10. A number of those winters saw average to above average snowfall.

The relevant nine winters are below:

1898-99: 55.9” snowfall
1909-10: 27.2” snowfall
1910-11: 25.2” snowfall
1955-56: 33.5” snowfall
1969-70: 25.6” snowfall
1995-96: 75.6” snowfall
2002-03: 49.3” snowfall
2005-06: 40.0” snowfall
2007-08: 11.9” snowfall

At this time, it is premature to reach firm conclusions about the upcoming winter.

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38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, New York City (Central Park) has had no minimum temperatures below 50°.  Since 1869, only nine previous years saw the first sub-50° reading after October 10. A number of those winters saw average to above average snowfall.

The relevant nine winters are below:

1898-99: 55.9” snowfall
1909-10: 27.2” snowfall
1910-11: 25.2” snowfall
1955-56: 33.5” snowfall
1969-70: 25.6” snowfall
1995-96: 75.6” snowfall
2002-03: 49.3” snowfall
2005-06: 40.0” snowfall
2007-08: 11.9” snowfall

At this time, it is premature to reach firm conclusions about the upcoming winter.

 

 

Since we may get past Oct. 17 w/o 50degs., what is the record date?  For 32degs. I believe that date is during the last 10 days of December.

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12 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

How was that winter for central park? 

40.0" snow, including 9.7" in December. February 11-12, 2006 saw 26.9" snow fall at Central Park, which was the Park's biggest snowfall on record until 27.5" fell on January 22-24, 2016.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

40.0" snow, including 9.7" in December. February 11-12, 2006 saw 26.9" snow fall at Central Park, which was the Park's biggest snowfall on record until 27.5" fell on January 22-24, 2016.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

Yeah I remember now, that was an amazing winter with amazing snowpack for almost 7 weeks if I'm not mistaken 

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8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Yeah I remember now, that was an amazing winter with amazing snowpack for almost 7 weeks if I'm not mistaken 

Nope, there wasn't much snowcover. The Feb 11-12 storm disappeared in a few days, and January and March both torched. There was a small period in mid-December with snow on the ground but nothing noteworthy.

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6 hours ago, nzucker said:

Nope, there wasn't much snowcover. The Feb 11-12 storm disappeared in a few days, and January and March both torched. There was a small period in mid-December with snow on the ground but nothing noteworthy.

yeah it was a big torch-I remember some mets saying the cold was coming in January, but it never showed up.  We were lucky to get the Feb Blizzard that year.   Hit on a Saturday too.

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Abnormally warm weather is over. Winter settled north of the arctic line on the northern hemisphere as of a few hours ago. Places like Noril'sk and Barrow won't see above freezing temperatures as of a few hours ago until spring time at least.

 

I saw a flock of Canadian geese today going south that usually means snow is coming soon. I think this winter may be late but it will be strong!

 

Remember, meteorological fall began September 1st. That day we had the coolest shot of air thus far this autumn. So fall already arrived during  technical summer. We had temps in the 40's around September 1st in most places except Central Park which I'm critical of the reading. I think we may get some interesting weather phenomena this upcoming winter where snow to warmth happens a lot. We may get a foot of snow and than the next day is warm and above normal freezing, quick melting snow systems.

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55 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Abnormally warm weather is over. Winter settled north of the arctic line on the northern hemisphere as of a few hours ago. Places like Noril'sk and Barrow won't see above freezing temperatures as of a few hours ago until spring time at least.

 

I saw a flock of Canadian geese today going south that usually means snow is coming soon. I think this winter may be late but it will be strong!

 

Remember, meteorological fall began September 1st. That day we had the coolest shot of air thus far this autumn. So fall already arrived during  technical summer. We had temps in the 40's around September 1st in most places except Central Park which I'm critical of the reading. I think we may get some interesting weather phenomena this upcoming winter where snow to warmth happens a lot. We may get a foot of snow and than the next day is warm and above normal freezing, quick melting snow systems.

Monday night looks pretty cold for the metro, my forecast low is 36.  Tuesday also looks seasonable, which is chilly compared to what we've been experiencing.  This is only a blip in the pattern though.  The weekend will be AN, with Sunday potentially making a run for 80 in spots.  After the cool down it looks to warm back up as well, and the long range GFS (I know I know) seems to support this.

As has been the trend since 2015, expect temps to over-perform and cold shots to be transient.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

FB_IMG_1507812077021.jpg

A lot of people will just see the headline and relay it around to friends.  The article never suggests below avg temps or above avg snowfall for the mid Atlantic or NE.   The only graphic in the article shows plain rain along I95 right up to NYC.  Only “brutal” is the hype!

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Check out how big the margin was in Miami for the new record number of 80 degree minimums. I guess this may make some of the LGA area posters jealous.;)

Miami has had 70 days at or above 80 for lows. Previous record was 45 days in 2010

they beat it by 25 days?  WOW

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I am not sold on a warm pattern lasting through Halloween. I personally think we get a period of below normal lasting more than a few days. 

How about those Yankees! I am a Phillies fan, but my grandmother who I was very close to used to root for the Yankees. So I have never minded them. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Check out how big the margin was in Miami for the new record number of 80 degree minimums. I guess this may make some of the LGA area posters jealous.;)

Miami has had 70 days at or above 80 for lows. Previous record was 45 days in 2010

the 2015/16 el nino set the baseline higher. whenever we get another summer 2010 pattern we're going to blow those records out of the water 

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46 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I am not sold on a warm pattern lasting through Halloween. I personally think we get a period of below normal lasting more than a few days

No matter how you look at it the fall feel just began today. Even if we get the 80 this weekend it will be a short lived and from here on out the decline just begins. November looks to start brutal according to GFS

 

IMG_2138.PNG

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