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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85
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Just now, eyewall said:

Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize.

Wait the GFS's idea of a 931mb storm emerging off Cuba isn't correct? lol completely agree. Going to have a limited window over FL straights, but in very good conditions. 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090406_159_9101_149.png

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize.

Absolutely, and of course, a weakened Irma will certainly be steered by lower level currents...which may end up ejecting her even further westward into the GOM....but still way too early to know the exact synoptic nuances ATT of her surrounding environment at that time.

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Just now, forecasterjack said:

Wait the GFS's idea of a 931mb storm emerging off Cuba isn't correct? lol completely agree. Going to have a limited window over FL straights, but in very good conditions. 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090406_159_9101_149.png

It has to be complete nonsense. Proof you can't believe GFS intensity.

No way ot runs across Cuba like that and is a 931. More like a badly damaged tropical storm.

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Just now, Mdecoy said:

It has to be complete nonsense. Proof you can't believe GFS intensity.

No way ot runs across Cuba like that and is a 931. More like a badly damaged tropical storm.

100% agreed, though Ike back in 08 ran pretty much the length of Cuba and emerged intact enough to cause trouble. Still definitely not a 931! 

Ike_2008_track.png

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16 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I think if Irma takes the 6Z GFS track over Cuba like that it will essentially be destroyed, we will be tracking a tropical storm on the other end and it will be a big yawn.

 

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize.

It really depends on how much interaction with Cuba there is and where the hurricane emerges after. The Euro raises the pressure to 950 over Cuba but is back near 930 a few days later just east of Florida. 

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So, it looks to me, like the Pacific wave break is in progress today? I haven't seen that mentioned in a while. I feel like we need that to run it's course in order to have a clearer picture on modeling. So maybe by tomorrow we can start eliminating a bit of uncertainty? I'll be interested in model trends today.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

 

It really depends on how much interaction with Cuba there is and where the hurricane emerges after. The Euro raises the pressure to 950 over Cuba but is back near 930 a few days later just east of Florida. 

Other than land interaction, it's in nearly an ideal environment for strengthening. zero dry air, hardly any shear, dominant ULAC. Don't think the euro's drop down to 930 post Cuba is too unreasonable given the environment. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090400_162_15844_449.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090400_162_15844_454.png

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6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

It has to be complete nonsense. Proof you can't believe GFS intensity.

No way ot runs across Cuba like that and is a 931. More like a badly damaged tropical storm.

Something happened to the GFS post upgrade.

6h
The issue is more with the intensity and wind field. GFS has has several runs this season of sub-870 mb storms.
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Usually the better intact a storm is when hitting cuba like that, the worse shape its in when it reemerges. Especially if its a large size...and it just doesnt get its act back together. Ike was like that i believe..was supposed to get to cat 4 or 5 again over the Gulf and couldnt do it.

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

So, it looks to me, like the Pacific wave break is in progress today? I haven't seen that mentioned in a while. I feel like we need that to run it's course in order to have a clearer picture on modeling. So maybe by tomorrow we can start eliminating a bit of uncertainty? I'll be interested in model trends today.

Himawari WV shows the wavebreak process already well underway. Sanvu is ET, GOA low developed, W US high developed, E US low now developing https://weather.us/satellite/australia-americas/satellite-water-vapor-goes-old/20170904-0900z.html

us_sat-en-087-0_2017_09_04_09_00_1397_329.png

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Just wanted to put in a quick plug for this site: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/precipitable-water-in/20170911-1800z.html you can get all the full res ECMWF stuff for free! That link shows PWAT forecasts by the ECMWF which highlights some of the upper level features that will mess with Irma's track. You can check out all the other parameters via the menus to the left of the image. You can also create custom domains. Click the image to zoom in or click near the edge to pan. Enjoy!

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10 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

Other than land interaction, it's in nearly an ideal environment for strengthening. zero dry air, hardly any shear, dominant ULAC. Don't think the euro's drop down to 930 post Cuba is too unreasonable given the environment. 

 

 

The Euro just skims the North Coast rather than the longer duration Ike passage in 2008. Still too far out to know the exact amount of land interaction.

ecmwf_cyclone_atlantic_41.thumb.png.32076e8c95df189dddbd8b8de2f42525.png

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The Euro just skims the North Coast rather than the longer duration Ike passage in 2008. Still too far out to know the exact amount of land interaction.

ecmwf_cyclone_atlantic_41.thumb.png.32076e8c95df189dddbd8b8de2f42525.png

 

 

 

Yeah look at that, suuuuuper close. Wonder if differences in friction between land/sea will cause any fluctuations in track if the eye is half onshore and half off a la ECMWF: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-221-n/windspeed-barbs/20170909-2100z.html

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090400_141_9236_227.png

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2 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

Yeah look at that, suuuuuper close. Wonder if differences in friction between land/sea will cause any fluctuations in track if the eye is half onshore and half off a la ECMWF: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-221-n/windspeed-barbs/20170909-2100z.html

 

 

The Euro has a 20 mb rise over the North Coast followed by a 30 mb fall just east of Florida.

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Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro has a 20 mb rise over the North Coast followed by a 30 mb fall just east of Florida.

yep indeed, I found 23 rise and 24 fall

930: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/764-w-221-n/sea-level-pressure/20170908-2100z.html

up to 953: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-221-n/sea-level-pressure/20170909-1500z.html

and right back down to 929: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/787-w-261-n/sea-level-pressure/20170911-0600z.html

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