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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85
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1 minute ago, WildFlower said:

I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here.  Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc..   Please???  AND Thank you!!!

As said multiple times earlier,  don't pay attention to the modeled wind speeds, their gonna be off. 

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4 minutes ago, WildFlower said:

I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here.  Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc..   Please???  AND Thank you!!!   I must be misunderstanding something??

That's an MSLP map, not a wind speed map?

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3 minutes ago, WildFlower said:

yes it is... sorry kind of easy to misunderstand with IRMA threatening to blow the front door and roof from your home.  Thanks for clearing my blondish moment  ^_^

FWIW, the Euro 'gusts' product is showing gusts probably 120-130, takes the center of the eye just to the west of Boynton Beach.

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28 minutes ago, delijoe said:

What are the differences that are causing this 50-75 mile difference in track?

From what I can tell, through 48 hours the euro is just faster and farther south with the track, so at 72 hours it has made it farther west before the turn arrives.  Also, this run, the euro slides the northeast trough eastward quicker, which appears to allow Irma's north turn to be a bit less sharp than what the GFS is showing.

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10 minutes ago, JoMo said:

FWIW, the Euro 'gusts' product is showing gusts probably 120-130, takes the center of the eye just to the west of Boynton Beach.

Much appreciate your FWIW... the "gusts" you mention are much more in line with my expectations of "gusts".  I'll be more careful and double check what I "think" I'm seeing before I post.  Still praying for something unexpected to occur to knock her block off before SO FL approach.  Peace

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29 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

From what I can tell, through 48 hours the euro is just faster and farther south with the track, so at 72 hours it has made it farther west before the turn arrives.  

Simple enough, but the southeast Florida pass can be further simplified to the first part of what you originally stated, which is quoted above. To say it slightly differently, the further south track has a more west component so it travels further west over the same amount of time and feels the trough--which is coming in from the north--later. As a result she recurves later and makes LF in/near Miami. The GEFS clusters clearly show this as well.

Gven the euro's far superior verification scores for the short term track thus far, I'm hedging strongly in favor of a LF in southeast Fla. and won't begin to question this forecast until/if Irma's short term movement deviates notably north of the 0z euro's track over the next 48 hrs.

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Simple enough, but the southeast Florida pass can be further simplified to the first part of what you originally stated, which is quoted above. To say it slightly differently, the further south track has a more west component so it travels further west over the same amount of time and feels the trough--which is coming in from the north--later. As a result she recurves later and makes LF in/near Miami. The GEFS clusters clearly show this as well.

Gven the euro's far superior verification scores for the short term track thus far, I'm hedging strongly in favor of a LF in southeast Fla. and won't begin to question this forecast until/if Irma's short term movement deviates notably north of the 0z euro's track over the next 48 hrs.

Even though the model spread amongst the 4 major global models (Euro, UK, CMC, and GFS) was more than it was at 12Z, given that the Euro solution didn't really change from 12Z to 0Z, maintaining that probably catastrophic track right up the SE FL coast, and given the superior Euro verification scores in the 3-4 day timeframe, I'm thinking there's no way the NHC changes their forecast track at 5 am.  i..e., that's a long way of saying I agree with you, lol.  

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1 minute ago, MDScot said:

 

Per Google "The aerial images from the NH90 helicopter above St.Maarten. Huge ravage is clearly visible"

Huge ravage is a good way to express what this storm is doing. 

 

Thanks! BBC had posted that tweet and a brief description of what it was, but not a translation. This is what BBC said: "The Dutch navy has posted a video taken from a helicopter above Saint Martin which shows widespread damage on the island.They also said that the island's airport is unreachable, and they are prioritising deliveries of help and supplies.Saint Martin is divided between the Netherlands and France."

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I did notice. IR showed the eye briefly occluding, and 248nm radar shows an inner/outer eyewall. I suspect the poor eye appearance is due to an ERC. Storm is probably weaker than 180mph, but with the ERC several hours in and the eye clearing, should be strengthening again. I suspect we will see it back to 185mph sometime during this morning's recon.

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2 minutes ago, delijoe said:

I don't get it.... 0z Monday on the Euro the center is over Vero Beach.  On the GFS it's about 100 miles ENE of that.

Shouldn't these models be in closer agreement this close in...

Not really. It's a major hurricane after all. Very un-predictable systems usually.

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3 minutes ago, delijoe said:

I don't get it.... 0z Monday on the Euro the center is over Vero Beach.  On the GFS it's about 100 miles ENE of that.

Shouldn't these models be in closer agreement this close in...

You're quibblling over 100 miles 3.5 days out?  I'd say that's fair agreement in all honesty given the complexity.  The eventual location will be dependent on track to that area and then the shape, location, and strength of the trough over the NE.  

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2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

You're quibblling over 100 miles 3.5 days out?  I'd say that's fair agreement in all honesty given the complexity.  The eventual location will be dependent on track to that area and then the shape, location, and strength of the trough over the NE.  

The problem is this 100 miles is the difference between total devastation of the Florida east coast and dodging a bullet.  If the eyewall misses the coast it'll make a huge difference in damage and lives... and hopefully before it reaches SC it weakens enough that it won't be nearly as devastating...

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Just now, delijoe said:

The problem is this 100 miles is the difference between total devastation of the Florida east coast and dodging a bullet.  If the eyewall misses the coast it'll make a huge difference in damage and lives... and hopefully before it reaches SC it weakens enough that it won't be nearly as devastating...

You cannot expect better agreement given the complexity.  Both sets of solutions (and others) are possible given the players on the field.  You may not know if it'll hit MIA until it does or does not.  Unfortunately, planning for Irma will be a PITA.

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