Dunkman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 First pass through the northern eyewall Kermit found 130kt FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: You mean 12z, right? Yes 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Northeast trough looks to be lifting a tad faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 944mb on the drop with 10kt at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Though 108...the NE low is lifting out a little quicker on past couple of GFS runs and the Atlantic ridge is hair weaker....thus further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 904mb at 114 .. staying N of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro turned it N at ~80W..interesting to see how close/over 80W GFS takes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: 904mb at 114 .. staying N of Cuba 900mb on hires fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: 904mb at 114 .. staying N of Cuba Yep...even with it trickling north it's only slightly north of where Euro has it day 5. Worst case scenario for FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Starting to gain latitude at 120.. might miss FL this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Scratch that.. watch out Miami! 892mb at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Euro turned it N at ~80W..interesting to see how close/over 80W GFS takes it. That's really the benchmark for south Florida. Cross that and it becomes difficult to find a way around major impact, barring a Cuba shredder scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Starting to gain latitude at 120.. might miss FL this time... Nope, plows right into Miami at 132 as a monster only thing this run did was limit the interaction with the islands, far worse case scenario in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just a little housekeeping, center latitude this fix was 16.68N after being 16.72N the 2 previous fixes. Could just be a bit of a wobble obviously but there's still a bit of south in Irma's movement for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Dunkman said: Just a little housekeeping, center latitude this fix was 16.68N after being 16.72N the 2 previous fixes. Could just be a bit of a wobble obviously but there's still a bit of south in Irma's movement for the time being. Yeah you can notice it on satellite, it is still 260-265 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Dear Lord, hopefully manually ingested data at 0Z yields a different result. 18Z is a catastrophe in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This is not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Believe I saw those waters north of Cuba, right before FL, are extremely warm, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: This is not a good run. That is a friggin' nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 A bit faster/further north but still destroys S Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I wonder what storm surge in Miami would look like verbatim this run? I know there was a map earlier that had 40+ foot seas just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: This is not a good run. And 144 has the center approaching Lake Okechobbee. What a catastrophe of a run for southern and south central Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said: Believe I saw those waters north of Cuba, right before FL, are extremely warm, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks slightly west of 12z at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Cmon man, 917 over Lake Okee, no way we don't want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: A bit faster/further north but still destroys S Florida Yeah, the faster ended up being much more significant than the "north-er." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Worse still, Irma will reemerge off the coast of Fla as a major and head for the Carolinas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Eastern third of FLA gets absolutely mauled this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It appears as if she rides inland longer on the 18z than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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