Major Hurricane Irma

[ncforecaster89]

Looking forward to the 00z model runs, given they will be ingested with the critical upper atmospheric data from the G-IV flights as well as the central USA.  The runs should give us a much better idea where Irma may end up in 5-7 days; albeit, no forecast will be 100% at even 48 hours out, much less these lead times.   

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just now, Wow said:

If the southern motion has indeed ended for good, possible we could see a continuation of a northern trend in the next couple of runs.  0z especially important with latest data ingested.

Excited to see the 18z models, but really really excited for the 00z models. Does the data collected get ingested into all models (foreign models as well), or just the American models?

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I would wager the UKMET, especially, is wrong. The southern movement component of Irma has ceased. Might come back, but for the meantime, it's gone. A possible adjustment north might be reasonable at 0z. IMO. 

Agreed. I just don't see it verifying at all with no similar guidance from the GFS or Euro. 

[ncforecaster89]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Excited to see the 18z models, but really really excited for the 00z models. Does the data collected get ingested into all models (foreign models as well), or just the American models?

All of the models.   

[Subtropics]

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

If the southern motion has indeed ended for good, possible we could see a continuation of a northern trend in the next couple of runs.  0z especially important with latest data ingested.

DT was saying this yesterday. Fully expects a correction north and east once the storm starts moving WNW

[friedmators]

Can someone post the Euro Ensemble map?


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[ncforecaster89]

5 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

DT was saying this yesterday. Fully expects a correction north and east once the storm starts moving WNW

Of course,  with all things being equal,  I'd always place a greater probability on a more N track as an intense hurricane is looking for any weakness to escape the first chance it gets.  

 

Edit:  But, all things aren't always equal.   Tropical meteorology is a complex and inexact science.  

[andyhb]

Anyone declaring an "all clear" for any area aside from the Yucatan for this storm that far out is not a very credible source of information.

[StormFollowerUSA]

Flordia Governor Rick Scott as declared a state of emergency. 

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Hurricane-Irma-Watches-Caribbean-South-Florida-442673363.html

 

[Jackstraw]

I think the TUTT to the NW is still a key player in the near term.  I think its helping the Atlantic ridge to strengthen while at the same time keeping the ridge orientation on a more east west axis by giving the ridge some space to build into.  As it weakens and lifts/dissipates the Atlantic ridge will begin to expand north into that space allowing the storm to gain some latitude.  However if you look at the water vapor loop there are a couple of players that have popped up that may be accounting for the models trending even farther west.  There is a small mid level ridge that has formed just east of Fl that the TUTT is enhancing.  There is also some upper level cyclonic flow beginning to develop in the central Caribbean.  That weak ULL may be enough to tug Irma a little more west so it ducks under that ridge east of Fl.  Neither of those features were shown in the models 36 hours ago or so that I saw.   

   Just my 2 cents I've been wrong before

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

7 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Can someone post the Euro Ensemble map?


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[Hoosier]

I don't understand the idea that we have to see an eastward correction simply when WNW motion begins.  Seems like simpleton thinking.  There's a difference between anticipated WNW motion and WNW motion that happens prematurely and then gets more and more off course.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, weatherboy80 said:

How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest!

The UKMET in the past had a left of track or south bias with hurricanes moving WNW in that area.

[jburns]

3 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

When you can not even see your state on the Euro Ensemble map you might want to hold off giving the all-clear.

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't understand the idea that we have to see an eastward correction simply when WNW motion begins.  Seems like simpleton thinking.  There's a difference between anticipated WNW motion and WNW motion that happens prematurely and then gets more and more off course.

Yeah, if the WNW motion starts early then I would expect an adjustment but the models are predicting a WNW movement in a day or so.

[Wow]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't understand the idea that we have to see an eastward correction simply when WNW motion begins.  Seems like simpleton thinking.  There's a difference between anticipated WNW motion and WNW motion that happens prematurely and then gets more and more off course.

Because a number of models continue the WSW motion for too long.  When they initialize further north next run with a due west trajectory, they're more likely trek further north.

[Stebo]

Just now, Wow said:

Because a number of models continue the WSW motion for too long.  When they initialize further north next run with a due west trajectory, they're more likely trek further north.

In the case of those models, UKMET for example, there would be a correction. The GFS and Euro I believe stop the WSW motion this evening so any adjustment would/should be very minimal with them.

[Wow]

And on cue, GFS is further north so far...

[DopplerWx]

yep, gfs already north thru 42. 

[Subtropics]

GFS touch north, and trough is noticeably stronger

[bdgwx]

46 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

There wouldn't be much left of Irma if it followed the UK track. Just saying. That depiction of a powerful cyclone at hour 168 after that track is complete fiction. Its shredded remains would likely continue on into the gulf because it would be too shallow to be pulled north.

I think this is a great point. If it dives too far south and interacts too much with Cuba the weakening could cause the upper level steering flow to interact less. That could easily take Irma right into the central GOM like what the 12Z FIM shows. I think we're moving into a period where D5 forecasts have less confidence now than in days prior.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Because a number of models continue the WSW motion for too long.  When they initialize further north next run with a due west trajectory, they're more likely trek further north.

Not quite what I'm saying.  I'm saying IF the upcoming turn to the WNW happens on schedule, why would it automatically lead to an eastward adjustment on models at that point? 

[Wow]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Not quite what I'm saying.  I'm saying IF the upcoming turn to the WNW happens on schedule, why would it automatically lead to an eastward adjustment on models at that point? 

Ah, not quite sure then.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

Definitely further north at hr 57. Trough over GL digging more as well.

[Buddy1987]

938 at 72. Let's see how far GFS goes on pressure this run.

Edit: 14mb in 6 hours time lol. 

[Wow]

Position is close to its 18z position at 78

[Hoosier]

Irma looks a tick faster this run.

[beanskip]

Also a bit faster this run, than 12z.

[MJO812]

GFS is a tick north of 12z so far

[packfan98]

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Position is close to its 18z position at 78

 

Just now, Snow88 said:

GFS is a tick north of 18z so far

You mean 12z, right?