BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Anyway, it should still at the very least be interesting to see how 0z plays out. (EDIT) I had a hunch...let's see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: How are the GEFS ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: One thing that does look likely is that the environment looks conducive for several days for strengthening. This might hit strong Cat 4 or 5 at some point when it's close to the Bahamas or Lesser Antilles. At midlatitudes I would be very cautious of applying the pressure rule to wind speed, especially with expanding TCs. Wasn't Sandy either 940mb or sub940mb off the S NJ coast? Cat 5's are extremely rare, but I could see a Cat 4 in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure. The 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: At midlatitudes I would be very cautious of applying the pressure rule to wind speed, especially with expanding TCs. Wasn't Sandy either 940mb or sub940mb off the S NJ coast? Cat 5's are extremely rare, but I could see a Cat 4 in that area. Sandy also never got above a Cat 3 if we're looking at wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 closer to Puerto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro looks even further SW than its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: Sandy also never got above a Cat 3 if we're looking at wind speeds. Yep, and barely to Cat 3 before it hit Cuba. It was around 90mph when it was getting close to NJ around 940mb (might have been 938). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hour 120, a little faster, a little further south, and a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 144 nails the Bahamas, little stronger than 12Z and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 00z Euro and GFS are pretty similar overall at 144 hours, including with handling the all important trough. As far as Irma, Euro continues to place it farther southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 If that trough lifts out any quicker this would have nothing to pull it north. It is very close to continuing right into Florida with this setup on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 EURO is farther S...S trend gaining steam? (CMC/EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: If that trough lifts out any quicker this would have nothing to pull it north. It is very close to continuing right into Florida with this setup on this run. Heading for a Miami heart attack run... maybe even more than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 156, raking the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 162, deepening and still raking the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Heading for a Miami heart attack run... maybe even more than last night. Looks like it might be starting to turn at 168 but by that point it would need to go NNE to miss the US at some capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 ouch... probably going to wind up a bit north of Miami but that trough isn't picking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 168 position nearly identical, a tad weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 We may be looking at a repeat of Matthew on this run should it turn northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: 168 position nearly identical, a tad weaker No. Much further south. Raking the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Morris said: No. Much further south. Raking the Bahamas. Further south than 12z. Identical to yesterday 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 174, still heading for Florida and raking the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 192, going out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Heads NNW at 180. Still raking the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 192, going out to sea? Yeah, due north at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 192, going out to sea? Ridge building east much faster than 12z, so it may cut back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 192, going out to sea? Either that, or a jog northward into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Still NNW at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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