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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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Just now, psv88 said:

Yea no hint of nw movement yet. The east coast should be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Worst case scenario clearly avoided 

If it doesn't actually come onshore it's unlikely it loses more than maybe 15-20 mph so it would still be a Cat 4 or high end 3.  What people MAY be overestimating though is how much it will strengthen once it gets away from Cuba.  It probably has 24 hours at most and it may be beaten up just enough it would need more than that to ramp back up 

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Cuban landfall isn't sold yet. Still has a pretty decent window to gain some latitude. Not sure why the past 20 posts seem so absolute on a Cuban landfall, given almost no guidance brings the eye actually on shore. Although guidance has been wrong in the past.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea no hint of nw movement yet. The east coast should be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Worst case scenario clearly avoided 

Not yet.  Looking a little better though.  Can almost rule out a track east of Miami.

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Worst case scenario clearly avoided 

As the hurricane hasn't even made landfall yet, this could be one of the more irresponsible posts I've read throughout this entire 240 page thread.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea no hint of nw movement yet. The east coast should be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Worst case scenario clearly avoided 

As much as I would like to believe that with my house in Boca i am not quite ready to breath that sigh of relief yet. Last year I was in Boca for Matthew and I remember being spared the predicted 80 -100mph winds by a 2-3 hour wobble to the N as opposed to the otherwise NW direction that very afternoon.  It is not going to take much of a back east track to put the east coast right back in the full cross hairs.

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6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea no hint of nw movement yet. The east coast should be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Worst case scenario clearly avoided 

Just way way way to early to keep saying this.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Look at the radar bro. I call it as I see it.

You need a weenie tag and a 5 post limit. Anyway, cloud tops are indeed showing some cooling over the last hour after warming earlier this morning. We'll have to see at what point Cuba becomes a hindrance to the circulation versus helping it to 'tighten' up. Regardless of the landfall point, it seems fairly likely the Keys are going to get a nasty surge. Somewhat surprised chasers are sitting out there. 

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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Irma has been moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), but the hurricane should resume a
west-northwest motion later today.  A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday.  On the forecast track, the eye of Irma
should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central
Bahamas for the rest of today and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

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