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Major Hurricane Irma

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1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Somewhat less bad for MIA, but exposes most of the peninsula to hurricane winds/gust, and some areas on the SW coast will wake up to a surprise and be scrambling.

They already should've been.  Respect the cone as has been said.

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Given how it's performed so far (as has been documented multiple times in this thread) you're probably wrong

Yes, but it's not a pinpoint accuracy, and the Euro could be just 25 miles too west, which would be well within its error range but still make a massive difference in impact (Miami vs SW Fla coast).
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4 minutes ago, jacindc said:

You know this is basically what the Euro showed at 12z, right?

Looks a tick West and the NHC track is further East.  If they weight this Euro they will need to adjust, and that will be a surprise.  I can tell you down here a lot of people think it's an east coast deal.

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6 minutes ago, jacindc said:

Another I-75 runner heading northwest. I bow to the Euro most of the time, but that movement just seems off.

May not play out just like that, but there's no reason it can't happen if the steering pattern is just right.  It would be pretty unlucky to get a run all the way up the peninsula just with the relatively narrow width.

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Just now, TPAwx said:

Looks a tick West and the NHC track is further East.  If theynweight this Euro they will need to adjust, and that will be a surprise.  I can tell you down here a lot of people think it's an east coast deal.

100% can confirm the people down here thinking it is a east coast thing. I think it is about 75/25% of people taking it seriously. I will say that I would be a lot more skeptical about the west shift had all the models shifted a little bit because of a wobble, the fact that this shift doesn't appear to be because of something like that makes me more confident in it. I still think at this point the best possible outcome is it going right up the gut this certainly makes me a lot more nervous it is going to go up the western side. I just hope for the gulf coast we don't end up getting a second landfall if it exits Florida west before it gets to the panhandle.

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Bad run for the keys, Marco Island, and Naples... especially with the Euro. Would love to know if anyone can extrapolate the approximate max winds for Naples on this run as I don't have access to Euro surface maps. 

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2 minutes ago, Dcwx said:

Bad run for the keys, Marco Island, and Naples... especially with the Euro. Would love to know if anyone can extrapolate the approximate max winds for Naples on this run as I don't have access to Euro surface maps. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170908-0900z.html

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2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

100% can confirm the people down here thinking it is a east coast thing. I think it is about 75/25% of people taking it seriously. I will say that I would be a lot more skeptical about the west shift had all the models shifted a little bit because of a wobble, the fact that this shift doesn't appear to be because of something like that makes me more confident in it. I still think at this point the best possible outcome is it going right up the gut this certainly makes me a lot more nervous it is going to go up the western side. I just hope for the gulf coast we don't end up getting a second landfall if it exits Florida west before it gets to the panhandle.

Yep.  And just checked my peak wind gusts.  Now up to mid 90s and it was around low 80s 12z run.  In and of itself this will catch a lot of people off guard on the Gulf Coast.

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And our KTBW radar is down. Oh this will be fun in central florida if this verifies. I prefer to see the lower 3rd of the storm on radar. 

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4 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

100% can confirm the people down here thinking it is a east coast thing. I think it is about 75/25% of people taking it seriously. I will say that I would be a lot more skeptical about the west shift had all the models shifted a little bit because of a wobble, the fact that this shift doesn't appear to be because of something like that makes me more confident in it. I still think at this point the best possible outcome is it going right up the gut this certainly makes me a lot more nervous it is going to go up the western side. I just hope for the gulf coast we don't end up getting a second landfall if it exits Florida west before it gets to the panhandle.

Second this.  In Tampa we "know" we will feel the storm but feel we won't be subject to destructive winds / surge like Miami and up East based on the enphasis these last few days on the weather reporting on tv locally.  Perhaps why we have been relatively civil with our gas and water purchases.  I have uninsured property in Miami and also relatives there but despite my biases I feel the west coast is in far better position to weather a serious storm like Irma than Miami will ever be.  

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its headed about due west over the past several hours.....don't doubt the euro, too much.

Wobbled over the last hour west, but over the last 5 hours it has gone from 21.2N to 21.6N.

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They already should've been.  Respect the cone as has been said.

"They" are actual people with lives and distractions that don't read weather forums all day or follow the NHC Atlantic Ops feed on twitter.

Pretty easy to say that from a distance.

Big issue, at least in TB, is the long term exemption from major hurricane direct hits.  People don't have it top of mind, the emphasis so far has been on Miami risk, and local TV mets have been hesitant to talk in specifics regarding weekend impacts (rightfully so, with the margin of error at this stage).  People here surged into Publix this week to buy stuff, and many of the gas stations are low or tapped out.  But otherwise the assumption has been that it will be more impactful to the Atlantic Coast.

Two consecutive Euro runs like this are a bit disconcerting,  I'm relieved the GFS scenario may not play out for MIA, but def concerned about the awareness and response here on the Gulf Coast.

Anyway, the cone works out bad for TB me and tons of other people are SOL.  Heading north now and hope you guys can keep up the good work and help spread the word as things solidify.

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If this stays over water and heads north into the gulf of mexico towards the panhandle, it could be catastrophic for Tampa, where a lot of people from the Southeast part of Florida evacuated to.

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1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Recent weakening has been an expansion of the overall storm. Inner parts are probably strengthening again. It's so round and healthy.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

She lost next to nothing.

 

------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 73.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in
forward speed.  A turn toward the northwest is expected by late
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to
move westward away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the
southeastern Bahamas this morning.  The core of the hurricane will
then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the
next day or two, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).

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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle.  A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi
wide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening.  The
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in
the outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the
125-130 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 135 kt.

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
environment for the next 36-48 h.  The intensity guidance shows a
slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at
least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida.  After
landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to
land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind
field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large
area.  There are two caveats to the intensity forecast.  First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes.  Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14.  Irma should
maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves
along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge.  After that
time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break
and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward.  There
remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,
with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and
the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side.  The ECMWF, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best
agreement with those models.  Overall, the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments
at 36 and 48 h.

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