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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 minute ago, jasons said:

Thank you for pointing this out. There have been so many comparisons to Andrew, it's starting to get nauseating. South Florida is nothing like it was in 1992, and Irma has little in common with Andrew. All those hi-rises are going to be a big problem & that's not being talked about much, anywhere...

Risk analysts are constantly talking about them the insurance world just doesn't have a large a voice in weather until after it hits.

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9 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Can someone please let me know why the NAM run can be thrown out so quickly? It's being fed the same data as all the other models...or am I totally off?

From my very little knowledge, since all models are programmed to some extent differently, they handle the same data in different ways.

 

Just in general, the NAM is known for handling things rather poorly, especially in the tropics.

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17 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Just read an article that in the Miami/FFL area there are a total of twenty four construction crains currently in the air. None of these crains will be removed as it takes up to two weeks. This is not good as none will survive the high winds and will immediately become very heavy destructive missles

Tampa is booming and there are several large cranes downtown.  The wind forecast product on forecasterjack 's excellent site suggests peak gusts in the 80s, so should not be a problem here.  Miami is going to have an unimaginable number and variety of objects turning into projectiles and ramming devices, with all the boats, cranes and other stuff in any large metroplex 

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You shouldn't really throw out any models this close to the event

You can throw out the NAM, it's not equipped to handle tropical systems. It also tends to over deepen strong convection which can cause all sorts of convective feedback issues. Plus it's the long range NAM. I could see giving it some weight if we were inside of 24hrs. 

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Can someone please let me know why the NAM run can be thrown out so quickly? It's being fed the same data as all the other models...or am I totally off?


It shouldn't be. Weenies like to toss it because it has a pretty bad track record but as pointed out, every once in a while it scores a coup. Rarely but does happen. The rest of the 0z suite should tell the tale.
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You can throw out the NAM, it's not equipped to handle tropical systems. It also tends to over deepen strong convection which can cause all sorts of convective feedback issues. Plus it's the long range NAM. I could see giving it some weight if we were inside of 24hrs. 

That's not what is causing this track. It's how the nam is handling the trough.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Can someone please let me know why the NAM run can be thrown out so quickly? It's being fed the same data as all the other models...or am I totally off?

It doesn't handle tropical cyclones very well. Already, its forecast 3z position was approximately 45 miles NNW of Irma's actual 3z position.

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2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

And down another 1mb to 919mb. During an ERC with an open inner eyewall. Wow.

The energy of the storm seems to be going more toward expanding the wind field rather than intensifying the core. That's how it can drop 1mb and show weaker maximum winds. 

Sandy was 945mb when it came ashore in Atlantic City, NJ with 80mph max winds. If it was a regular-sized hurricane it would've been a strong Cat 3. The massive amount of energy was dispersed over a huge area.

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

That's not what is causing this track. It's how the nam is handling the trough.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

I see that it's deepening the trough big time and hauling it North. I guess it's within the realm of possibilities, but we all know how the long range NAM loves to over amplify troughs.

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The energy of the storm seems to be going more toward expanding the wind field rather than intensifying the core. That's how it can drop 1mb and show weaker maximum winds. 

Sandy was 945mb when it came ashore in Atlantic City, NJ with 80mph max winds. If it was a regular-sized hurricane it would've been a strong Cat 3. The massive amount of energy was dispersed over a huge area.

It actually fits somewhat with my theory from last night.

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2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Tampa is booming and there are several large cranes downtown.  The wind forecast product on forecasterjack 's excellent site suggests peak gusts in the 80s, so should not be a problem here.  Miami is going to have an unimaginable number and variety of objects turning into projectiles and ramming devices, with all the boats, cranes and other stuff in any large metroplex 

Agree and I think it is being discounted. You look at the destruction in St Maarten, if the bad runs hit Miami I feel it will be worse than St Maarten. The amount of structures that are practically on top of each other is enormous. The amount of objects that can become flying missles are much higher in Miami than St Maarten. When all of that debris gets flung around it will continually destruct other structures. This is basically a high rated tornadoe. I may be wrong but those tornadoes only travel for a few miles. This has the potential to be a highly rated tornadoe with a wingspan of 50 plus miles that will travel for miles. 

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3 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Agree and I think it is being discounted. You look at the destruction in St Maarten, if the bad runs hit Miami I feel it will be worse than St Maarten. The amount of structures that are practically on top of each other is enormous. The amount of objects that can become flying missles are much higher in Miami than St Maarten. When all of that debris gets flung around it will continually destruct other structures. This is basically a high rated tornadoe. I may be wrong but those tornadoes only travel for a few miles. This has the potential to be a highly rated tornadoe with a wingspan of 50 plus miles that will travel for miles. 

To the space faring community, something like this sounds like Kessler Syndrome: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

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6 minutes ago, ny10019 said:

hate to think of what will happen near Lake Okeechobee, too. Not a lot of talk about that, but somewhat similar to the Okeechobee Hurricane back in the 20's (albeit now they have better levee systems) I suspect there will still be quite a surge there also.  

The track is nearly identical to 5 pm for landfall near the bottom center of the FL peninsula (25-35 miles SW of Miami) up through about the Orlando area and then the track has been shifted quite a bit westward from that towards central GA rather than coastal GA.  Being pulled more westward by the upper level low combo with the trough approaching the east coast?  

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Alright..enough is enough with responses that consist of just a few words long. If that is all you can come up with its NOT worth posting...or worth people's time reading...period. If certain individuals can't stop babbling like this then they are going to be getting a timeout. 

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25 minutes ago, jasons said:

Thank you for pointing this out. There have been so many comparisons to Andrew, it's starting to get nauseating. South Florida is nothing like it was in 1992, and Irma has little in common with Andrew. All those hi-rises are going to be a big problem & that's not being talked about much, anywhere...

I agree about the cranes. Just look back at 57th street during sandy and those were cat 1 winds. I disagree about the high rises. They are incredibly well built. I suspect some window blow outs like Houston had during 1983s cat 3 Alicia. But overall they should fair well. I think this is a surge monster. 

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RGEM not doing the full NAM shuffle although a slight hint of an eastward tick, 48h position appears to be consistent with earlier more than current NHC track and about 100 miles south-southeast of MIA, change from 36h suggests track at that point is either NW or NNW. Basically the RGEM extrapolated is a direct hit on s.e. FL. 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

The track is nearly identical to 5 pm for landfall near the bottom center of the FL peninsula (25-35 miles SW of Miami) up through about the Orlando area and then the track has been shifted quite a bit westward from that towards central GA rather than coastal GA.  Being pulled more westward by the upper level low combo with the trough approaching the east coast?  

I'm not saying the track reminds me of the Okeechobee Hurricane, but if we get a strong cat 4 or 5 going up through the middle of the state, that's another large area of water that is prone to storm surge. I was just tossing it out there that I haven't seen a lot of discussion about the possible *added* disaster that will cause on top of the coastal communities.

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16 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Agree and I think it is being discounted. You look at the destruction in St Maarten, if the bad runs hit Miami I feel it will be worse than St Maarten. The amount of structures that are practically on top of each other is enormous. The amount of objects that can become flying missles are much higher in Miami than St Maarten. When all of that debris gets flung around it will continually destruct other structures. This is basically a high rated tornadoe. I may be wrong but those tornadoes only travel for a few miles. This has the potential to be a highly rated tornadoe with a wingspan of 50 plus miles that will travel for miles. 

That would be highly unusual. Very few hurricanes have those kind of winds over that wide of an area. Not saying it won't happen, but it would be nearly unprecedented as far as I'm aware. Again, just talking about E-F3 to E-F4 winds over that wide a swath.

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