Major Hurricane Irma

[WishingForWarmWeather]

I feel it prudent to remind everyone that NAM is really horrible at handling tropical systems and shouldn't really be used except as an interesting data point. 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I think you missed my point. The reason the NAM trended so far east is it really slowed the trough down thus allowing it to capture Irma and pull her north. This is under 42 hours and the NAM is excellent at capturing things like a trough slowing down or energy phasing in. 

If it's so excellent, then we will see other guidance fall in line toward an off the Florida coast track in the next cycle or two.

[Random Chaos]

Microwave looks like ERC is most of the way through, maybe a couple hours left:

[Bostonseminole]

looks like Inagua in the bahamas is next

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, delijoe said:

So you think this is believable? Any chance of a bad initialization?  Florida is basically completely spared on this run.

one things for certain - the GFS the Euro even the Canadian and all the other specialized hurricane models will not have a huge shift in track at 0Z - the NAM ingested some bad data obviously.......

[JoshM]

Just now, Hoosier said:

If it's so excellent, then we will see other guidance fall in line toward an off the Florida coast track in the next cycle or two.

I think we've all been NAM'd plenty of times.

[yoda]

The NAM is just being looked at because of h5.  That's it.  It's fine to be checked, and yes we already know it's not a tropical model.  But it can be useful for early movements at the h5 level

[jm1220]

Just now, Hoosier said:

If it's so excellent, then we will see other guidance fall in line toward an off the Florida coast track in the next cycle or two.

It would also be a horrendous fail on the Euro's part, since it's been verifying the best with Irma so far. It's interesting to look at but likely nonsense.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Just now, Random Chaos said:

Microwave looks like ERC is most of the way through, maybe a couple hours left:

This hurricane is the most efficient I've seen in maintaining intensity while barreling through ERCs. I cannot think of another that did so. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

I feel it prudent to remind everyone that NAM is really horrible at handling tropical systems and shouldn't really be used except as an interesting data point. 

and interesting is stretching it ...

[Ralph Wiggum]

I feel it prudent to remind everyone that NAM is really horrible at handling tropical systems and shouldn't really be used except as an interesting data point. 

We say the same with how it handles winter storms in the NE until it gets that 1 annual huge win and we praise the hell out of it.

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[Coopdog]

Just read an article that in the Miami/FFL area there are a total of twenty four construction crains currently in the air. None of these crains will be removed as it takes up to two weeks. This is not good as none will survive the high winds and will immediately become very heavy destructive missles

[Dcwx]

Still going to hug the Euro until something scores better on this storm. 

[NYC10023]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

We say the same with how it handles winter storms in the NE until it gets that 1 annual huge win and we praise the hell out of it.

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Gah. I almost choked on my water thinking of the NAM/EURO talk in the winter months.

 

[delijoe]

Just now, yoda said:

The NAM is just being looked at because of h5.  That's it.  It's fine to be checked, and yes we already know it's not a tropical model.  But it can be useful for early movements at the h5 level

Just from following winter storms, doesn’t the NAM have a bias in terms of phasing?  The 500mb NE trof does look stronger on the NAM then on other models unless I’m reading it wrong.

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, Coopdog said:

Just read an article that in the Miami/FFL area thee are a total of twenty four construction crains currently in the air. None of these drains will be removed as it takes up to two weeks. This is not good as none will survive the high winds and will immediately become very heavy destructive misses. 

They can anchor them, but that's about it. That's the risk with building during hurricane season, but no one got time to only build off season. 

[NavarreDon]

11:00 pm 165 MPH 920 MB WNW 16......ERC and it still remains a 5! Cone shifted W day 4-5

[AlaskaETC]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

The NAM is just being looked at because of h5.  That's it.  It's fine to be checked, and yes we already know it's not a tropical model.  But it can be useful for early movements at the h5 level

Yes, but it is not meant to handle tropical systems/hurricanes. It's not reliable accurately depicting how those two areas interact.

[Jaguars]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yup... too bad is the NAM... but it actually moves it far enough east that the FL east coast only gets brushed by Irma.  Laughable, but still

NAM likely OTL

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just want to note for kicks and giggles, the NAM was holding on to the similar track it shows currently the longest of any model up until about 36 hours or so ago. You can go back on tt thru the archived data. Not saying its right, just noting. Also, remember when the Euro was in it's wheelhouse at 120 hrs and was the last global to hang onto the far East extreme solution. Its weird....we see this in the winter quite a bit then within 72 hours they go back to those solutions for whatever reason. For now Im tossing the NAM due to the extreme shift BUT this feels like a winter time deja vu as if we've been down this road before.

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[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

165 MPH 920 MB WNW 16

losing like no pressure and only 5 mph on winds during an ERC legend.

[snowlover91]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If it's so excellent, then we will see other guidance fall in line toward an off the Florida coast track in the next cycle or two.

I’m not saying it’s right or that other models will shift towards it’s solution. My point is that the NAM does a good job of handling 500mb patterns inside of 48 hours and this was a big change for it. Either it had some initialization/data issues, or something significant has changed in the environment that models didn’t previously account for. This is the first time the nam has shown this scenario and it’s not at 84 hours. I’m not convinced but it can’t be thrown out either just because it’s the NAM. The trough movement was much different. 

[KPITSnow]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just want to note for kicks and giggles, the NAM was holding on to the similar track it shows currently the longest of any model up until about 36 hours or so ago. You can go back on tt thru the archived data. Not saying its right, just noting. Also, remember when the Euro was in it's wheelhouse at 120 hrs and was the last global to hang onto the far East extreme solution. Its weird....we see this in the winter quite a bit then within 72 hours they go back to those solutions for whatever reason. For now Im tossing the NAM due to the extreme shift BUT this feels like a winter time deja vu as if we've been down this road before.

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DIdn't the 0z hurricane models already come out, and show absolutely nothing to support the NAM?

 

I would trust those over the NAM right now.

[NavarreDon]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward
around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the
Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward
around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the
Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Venice.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I’m not saying it’s right or that other models will shift towards it’s solution. My point is that the NAM does a good job of handling 500mb patterns inside of 48 hours and this was a big change for it. Either it had some initialization/data issues, or something significant has changed in the environment that models didn’t previously account for. This is the first time the nam has shown this scenario and it’s not at 84 hours. I’m not convinced but it can’t be thrown out either just because it’s the NAM. The trough movement was much different. 

It isnt the first time the NAM has shown this. Go back about 36 hrs ago on tt.....was the hi res model that held onto farthest East solution for a bit then started caving to globals. We know its a hiccup but interesting nonetheless.

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[Morris]

165 mph. There was definitely some temporary weakening. It might also be weaker than that at the moment.

[TPAwx]

Would rather see more clown in the sewer pics than hear dissertations on the NAM.  And I hate clowns.  Should be clear by now that the NHC has a firm handle on this, with the Euro performing best as typical.

[olafminesaw]

Why would thy issue warnings before extending watches? Or are those coming too.

[jasons]

11 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Just read an article that in the Miami/FFL area there are a total of twenty four construction crains currently in the air. None of these crains will be removed as it takes up to two weeks. This is not good as none will survive the high winds and will immediately become very heavy destructive missles

Thank you for pointing this out. There have been so many comparisons to Andrew, it's starting to get nauseating. South Florida is nothing like it was in 1992, and Irma has little in common with Andrew. All those hi-rises are going to be a big problem & that's not being talked about much, anywhere...

[78Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

I feel it prudent to remind everyone that NAM is really horrible at handling tropical systems and shouldn't really be used except as an interesting data point. 

At the 03z NHC position of Irma, the NAM is already north of that.  Extrapolate that out and it presents a significant error by the time it gets near the FL straits.