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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:
2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:
There are only about 500k  people in Miami....
 

Miami metro is about 5.5 million. No idea at what elevation.

Miami is 6.5 feet ASL

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cloud tops warming right now, maybe she'll weaken quite a bit and there's always the potential for land interaction from Cuba.

There's always something to be optimistic about, remember how Lili rapidly fell apart prior to landfall. 

prayers for lili 2

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6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Interesting fact: 5,000,000+ people in MIA live 10 feet below sea level. 

Considering the IKE just posted and the current favored track that is very concerning. 

As someone said above though, that's probably too high a number.

 

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

LOL saw it on a newscast. they quickly corrected it. Added too many zeros. 

5 million probably live 10 ft above sea level in the Miami Metro.  I can't see people in Florida living 10 ft below sea level unless they're already under a lake. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Need this to shift another 30 miles west..maybe 40 and have it just go up the gut of florida.  Probably best chance to minimize destruction.  Keeps it dead middle between Glades City/Naples and the east coast cities and weakens it enough by the time it gets to ORL maybe it's just a strong 2 

The way I see it and not likely, the last Hail Mary we have at avoiding the prefect track generally clustered on the 0Z hurricane models map above if somehow by miracle Irma can track over Cuba enough to weaken it some then make LF near the Everglades and swamps.....slim but that's about our last shot. 

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cloud tops warming right now, maybe she'll weaken quite a bit and there's always the potential for land interaction from Cuba. It could still shift further west and minimize the damage.

There's always something to be optimistic about, remember how Lili rapidly fell apart prior to landfall. 

Unless the other half of the eyewall in that microwave pass I posted earlier doesn't exist, this is not going to be a Lili repeat barring an extended stall over Cuba (and even that might be a stretch given some of the projections for rapid strengthening in earlier model runs that did stall it for Cuba for a considerable amount of time).

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6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The Euro basically did that and still would be extremely destructive.

What a time it is when we are looking for scenarios that are still 7 or 8 on the destructive scale instead of 10.

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We have made all necessary preparations for Irma's approach. And we now will watch and wait for Irma's Sunday arrival and departure. We decided we can do more in the long run by staying here, even if the path of the storm will be very close. I anticipate the eye to pass off to our east, and this will be better for us. But my thoughts go out to everyone who will be greatly impacted by this particular hurricane, no matter where 'she' decides to go. 

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I'm honestly not sure why Irma isn't exploding now. Not really land interaction at the moment. Little to no shear. Very warm waters. I do see the clouds warming somewhat. But eye still looks great. Based on its current trajectory looks like it could graze Cuba. Wondering when it will start going more N than W

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm honestly not sure why Irma isn't exploding now. Not really land interaction at the moment. Little to no shear. Very warm waters. I do see the clouds warming somewhat. But eye still looks great. Based on its current trajectory looks like it could graze Cuba. Wondering when it will start going more N than W

A possible ERC right now.. give it some time.  I'm positive it's going to be roaring back up soon.

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm honestly not sure why Irma isn't exploding now. Not really land interaction at the moment. Little to no shear. Very warm waters. I do see the clouds warming somewhat. But eye still looks great. Based on its current trajectory looks like it could graze Cuba. Wondering when it will start going more N than W

DJKN_evW4AI6M7L.jpg

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm honestly not sure why Irma isn't exploding now. Not really land interaction at the moment. Little to no shear. Very warm waters. I do see the clouds warming somewhat. But eye still looks great. Based on its current trajectory looks like it could graze Cuba. Wondering when it will start going more N than W

Is it possible there is an upper limit to how powerful a hurricane can get where it is at? Maybe Irma has hit that limit.

 

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3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Is it possible there is an upper limit to how powerful a hurricane can get where it is at? Maybe Irma has hit that limit.

At its current strength, it is going to be below that theoretical limit in the waters it is moving towards.

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Just now, Wannabehippie said:

Is it possible there is an upper limit to how powerful a hurricane can get where it is at? Maybe Irma has hit that limit.

 

Or it's just going through an ERC and will be strengthening once it's complete.

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I know we're focusing on Miami and FL at the moment, and for good reason.  But am I crazy in thinking a situation is setting up where people in GA and SC are going to seriously underestimate the storm surge?  Assuming the latest models were accurate and the core barely stays on land after landfall or briefly gets back over water before a second one, what would the expect surge impacts on the GA and SC coasts be?  One would expect it to significantly weaken to at least a Cat 1 hurricane by the time the core got that far N right?  But given the storm's previous power and likely even more massive windfield, won't that drive in a surge normally only seen from a direct hit from a larger storm?

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm honestly not sure why Irma isn't exploding now. Not really land interaction at the moment. Little to no shear. Very warm waters. I do see the clouds warming somewhat. But eye still looks great. Based on its current trajectory looks like it could graze Cuba. Wondering when it will start going more N than W

Is it possible for a hurricane that's been so powerful for so long to sort of run itself out of steam, so to speak? 

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Just now, Wannabehippie said:

Is it possible there is an upper limit to how powerful a hurricane can get where it is at? Maybe Irma has hit that limit.

 

Def possible. The conditions present should at least maintain it or slow weakening. Who thinks it will make landfall as a cat 5 in FL?

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2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Is it possible there is an upper limit to how powerful a hurricane can get where it is at? Maybe Irma has hit that limit.

 

A bit of dry air at the moment, perhaps some minor interactions from Hispanola and Cuba, had some outflow issues earlier AND not it's tough to maintain that crazy intensity with even a couple of minor issues.  The eye still looks impressive and TCHP increases steadily over the next 24hours.

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1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said:

A bit of dry air at the moment, perhaps some minor interactions from Hispanola and Cuba, had some outflow issues earlier AND not it's tough to maintain that crazy intensity with even a couple of minor issues.  The eye still looks impressive and TCHP increases steadily over the next 24hours.

I'm thinking it has better chance of ramping up in the coming day in even warmer water but shear also increases by Sat. Hard to say

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Def possible. The conditions present should at least maintain it or slow weakening. Who thinks it will make landfall as a cat 5 in FL?

I'm not sure we see anymore spikes in max winds but steady to very slow cutting back of core winds as the field expands in overall size is more likely. I can see it dropping in pressure again though and certainly can see it as a lower-end Cat 5 at LF. Definitely possible. 

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3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Dry air. 

A storm with a well established CDO and core like Irma is much less prone to dry air intrusion, plus there really isn't any sign of it on WV. Come on people.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Def possible. The conditions present should at least maintain it or slow weakening. Who thinks it will make landfall as a cat 5 in FL?

It has way better odds than most hurricanes, that's for sure.  Only a few US landfalls as cat 5 with 2 of them in Florida, so it's a bit tough to call for it with high confidence, but can't say it would be surprising.

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