the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Unimpressive recon pass in the NE eyewall. Might need to be lowered some more, although still barely a cat 5. lol cat 5 winds during an ERC is unimpressive now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Dry air. A storm with a well established CDO and core like Irma is much less prone to dry air intrusion, plus there really isn't any sign of it on WV. Come on people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Def possible. The conditions present should at least maintain it or slow weakening. Who thinks it will make landfall as a cat 5 in FL? It has way better odds than most hurricanes, that's for sure. Only a few US landfalls as cat 5 with 2 of them in Florida, so it's a bit tough to call for it with high confidence, but can't say it would be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 It isn't modeled to really start deepening until Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Breathtaking. https://imgur.com/myffqQa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 People who want to pass off facts without data/links to back it will be suspended from posting. Step up your game folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: yea there is http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/h5-mloop-wv.html Core is holding up well i agree with you on that but looking at WV and other products its pretty clear that there is some dry air in the system and that its weakened some which recon data is verifying Fluctuations in convective intensity in the CDO ≠ dry air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: It isn't modeled to really start deepening until Saturday. Once she hits about 78W and we start seeing the trajectory take on more of a N component is when we will really know if Irma is going to make one last strong attempt at reintensification as she approaches LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: yea there is http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/h5-mloop-wv.html Core is holding up well i agree with you on that but looking at WV and other products its pretty clear that there is some dry air in the system and that its weakened some which recon data is verifying that's about as moist an envelope as you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Insane amount of nitpicking about this storm. Like it was actually going to maintain 185 mph winds endlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Anyone have a link to the hurricane hunter live updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 ERC likely the cause of eliptical eye: Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:26ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 18Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 0:55:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°09'N 72°03'W (21.15N 72.05W)B. Center Fix Location: 63 statute miles (101 km) to the WSW (249°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,395m (7,858ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SW (220°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 306° at 107kts (From the NW at ~ 123.1mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 921mb (27.20 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,027m (9,931ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level center at 23:38:30ZMaximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 140kts (~ 161.1mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 0:59:30ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 215° at 7kts (From the SW at 8mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, tacoman25 said: Is it possible for a hurricane that's been so powerful for so long to sort of run itself out of steam, so to speak? Current theoretical Max Winds and Min Pressure for Irma from http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Judging by the last recon pass the Turks and Caicos should "only" be experiencing category 2 winds. Which, yeah that's really bad, but not something they aren't familiar with. The surge and waves are another matter entirely and that's definitely the real threat. However, at least they aren't also dealing wiht 175mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: yea there is http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/h5-mloop-wv.html Core is holding up well i agree with you on that but looking at WV and other products its pretty clear that there is some dry air in the system and that its weakened some which recon data is verifying It's pretty clear that dry air is not the issue really, as even seen on that loop. Core organization is likely the main issue right now, given the recently posted MW pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Saw this posted elsewhere a few hours ago, but did anyone here notice Irma is almost exactly where the NHC had her forecast, from the Tuesday 11AM advisory (#26)? I mean right on the line. That's over 48 hours ago, and they nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Insane amount of nitpicking about this storm. Like it was actually going to maintain 185 mph winds endlessly. Thats the point really, minor changes in the environment should serve to bring speeds down from 185mph which is exactly what's happening. Such a storm is extremely rare and fragile really because of all the factors that have to align to be at 185mph. We'll see if it gets there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Look at the size compared to Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Insane amount of nitpicking about this storm. Like it was actually going to maintain 185 mph winds endlessly. seriously, I'm shocked that she has remained a category 5 for so long. isn't she breaking/close to breaking some records in regard for intensity for such a long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Once she hits about 78W and we start seeing the trajectory take on more of a N component is when we will really know if Irma is going to make one last strong attempt at reintensification as she approaches LF. ...re-intensification from a high-end 4/low-end 5 back to flirting with basin/global records. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Current theoretical Max Winds and Min Pressure for Irma from http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html Yikes @ Florida Straits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Current theoretical Max Winds and Min Pressure for Irma from http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html Irma is actually at the theoretical max for her current position. Can't really be disappointed at that from a performance perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm honestly not sure why Irma isn't exploding now. Not really land interaction at the moment. Little to no shear. Very warm waters. I do see the clouds warming somewhat. But eye still looks great. Based on its current trajectory looks like it could graze Cuba. Wondering when it will start going more N than W Irma is pretty damn near the theoretical maximum for hurricanes in that part of the world. There's no where left to explode to. The fact that it's maintaining the strength it is for so long is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Realistically if landfall is in SF then Irma will likely be a high end Cat 4 or 5. I think she will rapidly reintensify as all guidance shows in the straits. She may be a 4 through tonight and tomorrow before she gains strength on Saturday unless the center crosses into Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: Current theoretical Max Winds and Min Pressure for Irma from http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html And this is the problem even if it hits Cuba. It might not be a high end 4/5 at landfall, but it certainly would be likely strengthening no matter where it goes after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yikes @ Florida Straights! Which is why NHC says Irma may strengthen as it approaches tip of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Anyone have a link to the hurricane hunter live updates? This is the link I use. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: It has way better odds than most hurricanes, that's for sure. Only a few US landfalls as cat 5 with 2 of them in Florida, so it's a bit tough to call for it with high confidence, but can't say it would be surprising. Was it the Labor Day Hurricane and Andrew? I think Andrew was last cat 5 landfall in the US if I'm not mistaken. It has ample warm water to fuel it but increasing shear will offset that some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 So what is the recon showing for surface winds right now? Has it dropped again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Ummm....no. LEK is correct: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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