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Major Hurricane Irma

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2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Does anyone have a link to the latest Irma stats? ie eye wall size, max winds, etc/

thanks

 

New vortex message should be coming out soon.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this

11L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.dbfa6c24896c89091e1722dd2ec34cfe.png

 

Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days.

There's definitely been a west trend today. I guess for MIA's sake we can hope for a continued west trend that then makes it a west FL coast threat. There's really no good outcome here-maybe this can get buried into Cuba for a time somehow and weaken. 

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5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Does anyone have a link to the latest Irma stats? ie eye wall size, max winds, etc/

thanks

 

The 8 pm Public Advisory is out -

 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 072354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017

...IRMA PUMMELING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning east of Cabo Frances Viejo and the Tropical Storm
Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border
with Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress
of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1
North, longitude 71.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern
Bahamas this evening. The core of the hurricane will then move
between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day
or two.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 919 mb (27.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight.
Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the
southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by
tonight or early Friday.  Hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late
Friday and Saturday.  Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday evening:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...
additional 1 to 2 inches
Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches
Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches
Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should
start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States
later today and tonight.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

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it's not impossible to see a slight shift back east tonight/tomorrow. that's why the nhc doesn't make drastic shifts with each update

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38 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

They were hit directly by Charley in 2004 and I don't recall it being a big problem.

http://allears.net/news/hurricane.htm

Found this article stating that many attractions opened the next day.

 

I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. 

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this

11L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.dbfa6c24896c89091e1722dd2ec34cfe.png

 

Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days.

Plenty of potential western coast tracks showing up now.  Interesting how they are pretty much a NNW through the state instead of N or NNE now (capture by the cutoff I assume).

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Further west track increases chance of more interaction with Cuba/possible weakening. Downside is unless it gets far enough West into the Gulf, the eastern eyewall could just rake the cities on SW FL coast on a NNW track without much weakening.

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The timing and duration of the northern turn and then the timing of the westward bend is so critical.  It just seems like a very difficult track to forecast.  So far, it's been on a general westward motion with degrees of more northern and southern jogs.  

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6 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Looks to me like in the last couple frames the eye is shrinking as well. Maybe I'm just losing my mind but I swear that's what it looks like. 

I noticed that too....Should soon see with next vortex message.

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30 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Seems like you can see the physical size actually increasing right now on the animated loop. Also, Turks and Caicos are taking one on the chin right now.

 

 

It's the first piece of land , that's tasted IRMA's true surge.   Even all the islands hit yesterday...were either a direct hit or only got brushed on the south or west end.  

Just to the right of a hurricane = worst surge.   wouldn't be surprised if their seeing a 20 to 25 foot surge.   Think about how long this waters been gathering up on it's right side...about a week now. 

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I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. 



Charley had a very small wind field and I-4 was kind of the dividing line between who got damage and who didn't. I was on the 'got damage' side.

Oddly, Hurricane Erin in '95 is the only central Fl hurricane that really impacted the parks. Sea World didn't open day after until 2 because it took us that long to remove over 100 downed trees and shredded roofing from the ski stadium.

Back to lurking...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Storm looks like it's almost moving due west now. 

Almost...still gaining latitude..just slowly. 

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3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Not look good as in structure, or in tragedy?

Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening.

that looks very very saucy

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2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Just eyeballing the 18z GEFS ensembles compared to the 18Z GFS the OP looks to be on the left of that guidance prior to the N turn.

Honestly, I think the ensembles lose a bit of value for S FL at this point. 12z GFS probably the east boundary, 12z UK the West. Won't know for sure the track until that turn begins.

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9 minutes ago, Hazey said:

The Turks and Caicos islands just went through the RFQ. Wonder how they faired. Yikes.

Yeah, looks like it will be pretty bad.  I spent the day on Grand Turk while on a cruise.  All, low lying ground with no where to hide.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening.

That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before.

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1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

 

That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before.

Irma is just moving into the warmest waters it's encountered too

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 8.38.04 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

24 hr ago

It's useful in a sense. Looks like most of these models were slightly too far NE with the center yesterday compared to where it is now. 

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guys and gals, not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but we've had a couple of X-class and a couple of M-class solar flares over the last 36 hours (one of which was an X-9). I know this won't directly affect Irma itself. But we've been apparently been wavering between a G-2 and G-4 geomagnetic storm over the last few hours, and may do so for another 24-48 hours. this type of geomagnetic storm may affect satellites and their data, as well as some radio transmissions.

hopefully this doesn't degrade any data we will be getting on Irma (and Jose and Katia) from up top for the next few days, when we need it the most.

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