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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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And it's going to take the ride right up I-95 this run, look how far inland the strong winds make it. As a reminder these are 10m winds, not 850mb.

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Picking up forward speed now, looks destined for Savannah. 

59b01be649c77.png

 

Look how that ridge builds over the Western Atlantic and shoves this West.

59b01c173daed.png

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That run is close to worst case -- SE coast of FL gets the eyewall, but the storm doesn't lose any punch so when it strike further north it's still a beast.

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3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Just crawling up Florida's east coast. This is a terrible, terrible run for anyone in the Gold Coast.

Model convergence time as the GFS went right to the 0z Euro and EPS mean.

0_es3.png.7b51ef8e43f3166e7ae7923a8bfb2186.png

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Even Orlando would likely experience Hurricane force wind gusts if this verified. The track also keeps the core offshore enough that Irma should be able to sustain itself longer.

59b01ccfc67c1.png

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The upper level jet streak tugging on Irma at hour 96 is more potent on this run. The entry is about 80-90 kts at 200mb on the 12Z cycle instead of 70-80 kts on the 6Z cycle. The low over Missouri is further north and closes off faster.

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5 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Pretty big shift west from the last run . 

The shift was actually quite small (about 0.5° longitude) and well within the envelope of uncertainty on a run-to-run basis. Bottom line: Florida to South Carolina remain at the highest risk of U.S. landfall.

365f1a7c-db5a-4336-9807-9564d3a54e9a.gif

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29 minutes ago, beanskip said:

And through 24 -- NHC guys will be cussing up a storm if the 12z runs go west. I know I would be.

 

Why? That run was basically exactly what their forecast showed.

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By the time the ridge breaks down it's too late. Second LF near the GA/SC border as a powerful hurricane.

I am assuming that LF occurs initially somewhere in SE FL, but it's very hard to tell.

59b01d4117058.png

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

By the time the ridge breaks down it's too late. Second LF near the GA/SC border as a powerful hurricane.

I am assuming that LF occurs initially somewhere in SE FL, but it's very hard to tell.

59b01d4117058.png

I don't think it ever landfalls there, it just skirts the east coast of Florida.

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2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . 

Yea, I agree with you. In the context of the effects on the MIA/FLL area, it was a sizeable shift west in that it negated any thoughts of an "east trend." I was hoping to see another shift east, but it was not to be. 

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1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . 

Fair enough. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and then the Euro.

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1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . 

still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift

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Live in an independent/assisted senior facility well inland in Stuart FL. If Irma is forecast to hit here as a Cat Five 150 people will have to evacuate by bus to Tarpon Springs. Roads will be gridlocked and I'm afraid the risks for 150 seniors being stuck on a bus are far greater than staying in this very sturdily-built 3-story building. (See Rita/Houston). So it's not just the forecast of where Irma's going but how intense it will be when/if it gets here that's critically important to us. This board is a Godsend in that regard; keep up the great work. [Just to share one of many such stories playing out in SFL; now back to lurking]

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Fair enough. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and then the Euro.

Yeah, the 6z GEFS had quite the spread only 48 hour out.

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2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift

It looks like its about 50 miles further west. Which is the difference between hurricane and non-hurricane conditions for SE FL. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

It looks like its about 50 miles further west. Which is the difference between hurricane and non-hurricane conditions for SE FL. 

Oh i dont disagree with that.  Just like my two phantom 24-36" blizzard warnings here in CNJ the past 3 years...few miles can make a big difference

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Much greater impact for the coast however

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh108_trend.gif

Absolutelt. This would be catastrophic for the entire southeasr coast of Florida (very expensive and vulnerable real estate, of course).

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