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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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 It appears that the models leaning towards a Carolina landfall move Irma right along which will at least keep rainfall in the hills lower than if she was crawling and or stalling.  Silver lining I guess. 

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42 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models.  From  there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far.

Most of those models have the storm going in right around Tybee/HHI. Hugo came in at McClellanville, farther N. That would be a WCS for the Charleston area. The immediate Charleston area didn't get the worst effects from Hurricane Hugo, instead the areas between the landfall and Myrtle Beach got it. 

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Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

Saint Barths...which has better construction than Saint Marteen

yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim.

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim.

Not surprising..Saint Marteen Dutch side is poorer than the French side...would expect bad news from the West part of the island.

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33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

When Irene hit New England / E NY everybody was prepared for heavy wind and rain but the way it played out was 8-12" of rain over the course of a day w/o much wind of note.  It really just seemed like a really rainy day but bullet dodged. Wrong. The rain pouring out of the hills turned streams to rivers and rivers to violent churning lakes of water.  The destruction was catastrophic and somehow many were caught of guard by the flooding.  The rain sneaks up on you and then it's too late for those in flood prone areas who took it for granted. 

I had a metric sh*t ton of rain in Irene and enough wind to bring a tree down on my house. The creek below us that's rarely more than a muddy trickle was a raging beast 5-6 feet deep and it took out all sorts of backyard stuff that people didn't even consider to be at risk. The only other time I've seen it like that here was Foyd in 1999 when we got 14 inches of rain in an afternoon. That was insanity! A fair portion of my backyard ended up in my front yard but it was ok because the neighbors yard washed into mine to replace what would have been lost :o

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32 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... 

 

Because you don't significantly move a probability cone 72-84 hours out ... just based on the few model runs we see here ... and some degree of apparent model consensus just in the past 9 hours. These cones take other things into consideration including meteorological experience, judgement, climatology, and other models that we don't necessarily review in detail here. Imagine if they moved the cone eastwards, and at 12z ... a couple of major models or ensemble means shifted back west. You have to realize that the cone is an overall probability, and that further ... its position potentially affects millions of people and evacuation orders. 

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8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim.

Maho Beach:

 

 

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Unfortunately with St. Martin in the eye, those areas that had offshore winds will now flip around to onshore as the system moves West. That puts Philipsburg and Maho Beach into the onshore flow.

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13 minutes ago, hickory said:

Looking at pictures of the island it seems to have some elevation to it, but not too sure if this is the best plan. 

https://twitter.com/richardbranson/status/905415713225146368

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Just a PSA - depending on what Spaghetti Plot you are looking at and what models they include, keep in mind there are a TON of models that are based off the GFS - including HWRF and HMON, etc. etc. It can give a false impression of model consensus because the models derived from the GFS move with the GFS.


The GFS has actually performed quite poorly with Irma, actually even worse than the Canadian, actually. 

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Having experienced Andrew's eye wall for 4 hours, these videos are giving me flashbacks...the worst is when the winds shift around and what you thought was your good hunker down spot becomes not so good...

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50 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:


I see. Thanks for the detailed info. I'm in Atlanta, so I've never had to deal with any kind of flooding, and new to following wx in general. Shout out to everyone for being so helpful here.


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Ivan crossed near Atlanta in 2004.  I lived in Alpharetta at the time.  Big Creek (so called; normally you can jump over it) flooded big time.  I believe we got close to a foot of rain over about a 12-15 hour period

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5 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Just a PSA - depending on what Spaghetti Plot you are looking at and what models they include, keep in mind there are a TON of models that are based off the GFS - including HWRF and HMON, etc. etc. It can give a false impression of model consensus because the models derived from the GFS move with the GFS.


The GFS has actually performed quite poorly with Irma, actually even worse than the Canadian, actually. 

The Euro has beating everything including the official.

 

mae.png.78a875b6915ab072357d1344fa8bcc69.png

 

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8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This thread is moving really fast, so my apologies if this has been covered, but St. Thomas and St. John's in the USVI really look like they are going to take a nasty hit.  

I have a friend who lives in Charlotte Amalie and we were chatting around midnight local time last night and we both agreed at the time that it looked like the eye would pass north of St. Thomas. Looking at satellite and radar right now, that no longer seems to be the case. I haven't been able to reach her to get an update, but I'm pretty sure she is too busy making final preparations to be chatting with friends and family at the moment. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has beating everything including the official.

 

 

 

It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). 

It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. 

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It's getting to the Point where some of the consensus models don't matter because the Euro is so dominant (I really wish the Euro ensemble mean was on that chart, though). 

It's so good it's getting boring - witness the immense resistance in this thread to Euro dominance. 


please. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:


emoji849.pngemoji849.pngemoji849.pngplease. Euro has gone from OTS to gulf to Cuba to east coast of FL.


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LOL. Euro has been terrible past hour 72. Yes, it's scoring well inside of that but it's been the worst model by far outside of that. Very erratic with thousand mile shifts each run.

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