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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region.

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Well if you weigh the various solutions over the last few days the mean points to Southeast Florida. That's why I'm picking this spot. That could change if things shift around some more.

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

What % chance do you give of Irma NOT making a US landfall?

I'm at around 15% chance right now, but trending higher based off the latest runs...

Probably around that or 10.  It's really tough for a system that gets west of 75W below 24N not to hit the US.  The kicking mechanism has to be perfectly timed and also strong 

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3 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

What % chance do you give of Irma NOT making a US landfall?

I'm at around 15% chance right now, but trending higher based off the latest runs...

50%...thinking it pulls a Matthew and laughs at the US.

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The trend is your friend.  With so many models trending more and more east, they are picking up on something.  

 

Let's hope this thing recurves and doesn't even touch Hatteras!

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

50%...thinking it pulls a Matthew and laughs at the US.

First off, based off what? 

 

Second off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths.

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It's pathetic how people live and die by every model suite. Yesterday everyone was sure this was going to strike Cuba, and now today you have people pre-maturely jumping on the OTS train, even though none of the guidance shows this except for the awful GGEM. 

As the ULL moves out of New England, high pressure builds in behind it which forces the NNW movement. The strength of this high will determine how far up the coast Irma can make it before landfall.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

First off, based off what? 

 

Seconf off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths.

Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run.  Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast.  

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This storm reminds me of Floyd.   S FL emptied out and the storm turned.  I remember driving on I-95 and Miami was empty.   

 

The trend is your friend...

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run.  Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast.  

Doesn't climo also argue though that a storm in this position almost always makes a US landfall?

 

At the very least, if it gets off the north coast of Cuba, there aren't many escape options. It might not bit FL directly, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't impact the Carolinas or north east.

 

With only a few members of different ensembles showing an OTS solution I would say that 50% number is highly unlikely.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trough over the US is being modeled stronger and strong each run which is resulting in the guidance tugging Irma a bit east each run.  Climo also argues against a TC running parallel to the FL coast.  

I can see it missing Florida, I don't see how it misses the Carolina's. Not only do you have the upper high building overhead as the ULL pulls out but you also have another trough digging into the upper mid-west which eventually captures the system. That secondary trough eventually knocks down the ridge over New England, but Irma is well inland at that point. That same ridge is responsible for why the Northeast stays so dry despite an up the coast track. Maybe that trough will trend deeper and that could open the door for a more Northeasterly track after landfall.

 

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3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Doesn't climo also argue though that a storm in this position almost always makes a US landfall?

 

At the very least, if it gets off the north coast of Cuba, there aren't many escape options. It might not bit FL directly, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't impact the Carolinas or north east.

 

With only a few members of different ensembles showing an OTS solution I would say that 50% number is highly unlikely.

Ian did some GIS analysis pre-Sandy and found that once a TC crosses 78W the odds of a US landfall are greater than 60% so that's my benchmark.  If Irma turns after 78W then I'm wrong, meh.  If Irma turns right east of 78W then I'm right, meh.

 

EDIT:  Correction 78 for 76

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ian did some GIS analysis pre-Sandy and found that once a TC crosses 76W the odds of a US landfall are greater than 60% so that's my benchmark.  If Irma turns after 76W then I'm wrong, meh.  If Irma turns right easter of 76W then I'm right, meh.

I would like to see if it crosses 75W south of 25N what the chances are.  I'm guessing close to 85-90

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would like to see if it crosses 75W south of 25N what the chances are.  I'm guessing close to 85-90

I edited my post because I posted 76W instead of 78W as it should be.  Apologies.

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9 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

This storm reminds me of Floyd.   S FL emptied out and the storm turned.  I remember driving on I-95 and Miami was empty.   

 

The trend is your friend...

Irma is reminding me ALOT of Floyd. Thought I was the only one. 

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7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Are the 12z hurricane models out yet? I thought they always come out super early. 

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Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models.  From  there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far.

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20 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

First off, based off what? 

 

Second off, Matthew did eventually make landfall, and ended up causing 47 us deaths.

And near catastrophic flooding for Eastern NC.

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6 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models.  From  there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far.

WOW,

Absolutely catastrophic run for my parents in Daniel Island (Charleston). Hope this doesn't come to fruition. That track would be terrible with the amount of forcing and lift to generate heavy rains against the blue ridge, shear in the atmosphere, etc.. i.e. NW NC and SW VA as well

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2 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said:


I'm new to this so forgive my ignorance - is North Carolina susceptible to flooding? Why?

Throw 10"+ rain in a day at most places and they will be prone to flooding. 

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It's not going to go OTS unless the northeast trough ends up much stronger, stays around longer, and extends much further SW. 

The furthest north this may go is SC/NC border but probably closer to GA/SC. 

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