Major Hurricane Irma

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see the Matthew track FL hugger then OTS solutions are slowly starting to pop up again in more ensembles and other spaghetti plots. With these relatively large shifts East we are seeing on op models past 12-18 hrs is it safe to say a possible hugger then OTS solution is back on the table to some degree?

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I'm not sure because the system is so far south I think it may only briefly get picked up with a NE turn and then ridging may build back and cause it to resume north motion again.

[bristolri_wx]

After landfall the trend has been farther east as well.  Is this something to worry about for Mid Atlantic and New England getting stronger "remnants"...?

[mempho]

I think the station's anemometer is broken.

While I would expect surge to be limited there, it could also be underwater.

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[TellicoWx]

Red Cross is already pre-staging personnel in Floridaand Georgia, got an email earlier from the office here in Knoxville 

[jojo762]

Don't think anyone posted it, but pretty much all 06Z Hurricane guidance shifted east as well. Including a rather dramatic shift east for the HWRF.

[mfgmfg]

9761115/BARA9 started reporting pressure again, must just not have worked under 921mb. 8.625ft/2.629m above MLLW surge when the winds blew from the south

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Red Cross is already pre-staging personnel in Floridaand Georgia, got an email earlier from the office here in Knoxville 

Glad preparations are underway.

Emotions are going to be running high with a potential impact of this magnitude, so lets just try to remain mindful of that throughout this ordeal in order to maximize the rate of efficiency with which information can be conveyed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Don't think anyone posted it, but pretty much all 06Z Hurricane guidance shifted east as well. Including a rather dramatic shift east for the HWRF.

Post those, please.

Thnx.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm not sure because the system is so far south I think it may only briefly get picked up with a NE turn and then ridging may build back and cause it to resume north motion again.

 

Thanks for the reply. Im seeing on some guidance and it is clear on the Euro there is a strong trof swinging thru the midwest and NE after 144 that is coming thru earlier and stronger with each run. Im wondering how big a player this will be with Irma. I suppose if there was something that was going to save the US that feature could be our last hope. As always timing is everything but a faster trof and/or slower Irma could time things perfectly.....maybe. GEFS are precariously close now to showing this scenario with several member apparently reflecting what I am throwing out there. Its a long shot but slowly gaining some support. I mean, frankly we went from a potential Gulf system traversing Cuba to a SC/NC hit in what? 12-18 hours? I guess anything is possible right? I would be on high alert still from Key West to OBX obviously but just noting some changes I am seeing.

 

 

 

 

 

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Post those, please.

thnx.

 

[CoastalWx]

That little bump W from the WNW motion models have after hr 72 is so important for SE FL purposes. What a nail biter for Miami. 

[bobbutts]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

 

So looks like the favored track is FL scare and SC hit.  I wonder if this is the start of a trend E or an over-correction from the western tracks we saw earlier.  High stakes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

 

These match my thoughts very well now.

Gun-to-head, Miami dodges a bullet....at least somewhat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That little bump W from the WNW motion models have after hr 72 is so important for SE FL purposes. What a nail biter for Miami. 

They need to prepare for what Barbuda is experiencing......but at present, I'm 60/40 in favor of Irma remaining just far enough east.

[jojo762]

Just now, bobbutts said:

So looks like the favored track is FL scare and SC hit.  I wonder if this is the start of a trend E or an over-correction from the western tracks we saw earlier.  High stakes.

Should have a more concise view in 36-48 hours, if not sooner. Nonetheless the difference between a FL landfall and almost anywhere else along the SE coast is mounumental as far as potential losses/damages go. 

[Windspeed]

Meanwhile, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin/Sint Maarteen and Anguilla are in Irma's crosshairs and will end up inside the eye besides interaction with the eyewall if Irma continues on its current heading. Around 85k combined population estimate. Hope they are ready.

 

Anguilla has very low topography. But Martin/Maarten and Saint-Barthélemy are eroding volcanic edifices of ridges and valleys, the highest points being 1,391ft/424m and 938ft/286m.

 

It'll probably be a bit breezy up on Paradise Point this morning.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

These match my thoughts very well now.

Gun-to-head, Miami dodges a bullet....at least somewhat. 

Thinking the same. Gut feeling MIA avoids a catastrophe/direct hit. Impact zone farther N up coast with a possible coastal grazer nailbiter still a slim possibility.

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[mempho]

So looks like the favored track is FL scare and SC hit.  I wonder if this is the start of a trend E or an over-correction from the western tracks we saw earlier.  High stakes.

Well, that would certainly be quite a scare. Also, a couple of years ago, we were having a family vacation on Hilton Head when TS Andrea hit. A treat for a family that loved storms. If this verifies, so sad...

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[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thinking the same. Gut feeling MIA avoids a catastrophe/direct hit. Impact zone farther N up coast with a possible coastal grazer nailbiter still a slim possibility.

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I'd give this about a 10% shot of missing the US....60% shot of missing FL.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These match my thoughts very well now.

Gun-to-head, Miami dodges a bullet....at least somewhat. 

Mine as well, my thoughts have been between Fl/GA line up to the outer banks. The OTS solution is still on the table as well imo, but the southern part of my area is a bad outcome not much to really weaken it except itself. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The EURO does show some weakening prior to SC LF.

[USCG RS]

I'd give this about a 10% shot of missing the US....60% shot of missing FL.

I still believe this comes N and something like what the models originally were showing are in the cards. Hurricanes, especially strong ones, tend to follow the path of least resistance in my experience. Looking at h25 on all the models, the only weakness is due north once she gets to the Bahamas. I believe the trough is going to weaken the WAR enough to allow here to move North, while at h5, it will allow her to be pulled back into the coast. Likewise, the WAR will keep her from being kicked ots. Just my two cents.

[Eduardo]

How does this trend compare with the dynamics which drove Floyd up the coast in '99?  Anyone have upper air maps handy for comparison?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Can't wait for models to trend west again. Lol...  It'd be nice if everyone could chill out with changing their opinion of what's "going to happen" with every single model suite that swings or "trends" a certain direction. Wait for some consistency, which should be ascertained shortly. 

Im pretty sure the handful on here at this hour including myself have been providing the same thoughts for days. I dont think I see any particular poster bouncing all over the place. Could be wrong. And mind you, there has been and is a trend happening past 12-18 hours. This isnt one model run shifting. Go back over past 24 hours which would be 4 tropical guidance forecast track plots. Definitely a certain direction they are heading and that is narrowing the cone quite a bit or moving it East at the very least.

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[SnowGoose69]

It looks like METAR reporting from TNCM may have been suspended at 06z.

[Mountain_Patch]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im pretty sure the handful on here at this hour including myself have been providing the same thoughts for days. I dont think I see any particular poster bouncing all over the place. Could be wrong. And mind you, there has been and is a trend happening past 12-18 hours. This isnt one model run shifting. Go back over past 24 hours which would be 4 tropical guidance forecast track plots. Definitely a certain direction they are heading and that is narrowing the cone quite a bit or moving it East at the very least.

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I've always thought it was going to end up in South Carolina, but I don't think the models have it exactly right. There are too many variables to make that kind of prediction this far out. If it so much as wobbles twice it's making landfall in Miami, or it's visiting Charleston. It's impossible to say x is going to happen because there are too many other variables yet to be decided right now.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Is the 00z GEFS out yet? 

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Is the 00z GEFS out yet? 

Yes. Still a solid spread... but one that can be separated into three regimes: 1. Keys/far eastern gulf/South Florida landfall, 2. FL scare + landfall in GA/SC/NC coast, and (this one features the least amount of member support) 3. OTS or NE hit.

[Quincy]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That little bump W from the WNW motion models have after hr 72 is so important for SE FL purposes. What a nail biter for Miami. 

Mean consensus track is pretty major for Miami. Eastward fetch prior to passage (surge) and relatively undisturbed western eyewall (while storm center remains over open waters). You don't need the center of the eye to pass overhead for significant impacts. 

[OSUmetstud]

108 hours EPS low positions.