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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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19 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Just the differential shear stress alone would be enough to deform even a very well-reinforced building. 130kt at base vs 200kt at 800' is about a 4x differential.

Scary scenario to contemplate (and worthy of more discussion later if it looks like Miami will take a direct hit).  We've had tornado and weaker hurricane encounters with skyscrapers in US cities, but nothing like the potential that this could bring.

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1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Perhaps I'm looking at this wrong, but the Euro initialized Irma at 961 MB, when its currently at 914.  Is that an issue?

No. Like wxmx mentioned earlier today, it has an intense, vertically stacked vortex at initialization, which is what's important.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Much further off of Cuba and much more intense at 72

Agreed, so far this run tracking significantly more NE than 12Z.  Let's see if that translates to no Cuba hit and coming much closer to the FL east coast than west coast (which was hit for 12Z) or even missing FL altogether, like the GFS/CMC.  

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed, so far this run tracking significantly more NE than 12Z.  Let's see if that translates to no Cuba hit and coming much closer to the FL east coast than west coast (which was hit for 12Z) or even missing FL altogether, like the GFS/CMC.  

Have never bought the big Cuba impact/ GOM and west coast rider.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the GFS here...in general.

Crazy, if it turns out like 0z gfs we're talking about a a couple of miles of error between staying offshore and a raking up much of entire fl e. coast.. And really bad impact for SC.

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2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

What's your basis for this?  You've posted various flavors of this repeatedly today without any scientific reasoning.  Considering that the Euro smokes all other forecasters, human or quantitative, either back it up with sound reasoning or stop weenieing and polluting the threads.  

I've posted several times that I believe that the models overcorrected to the west, as recurvatures often occur faster and with more fervor as the forecast range decreases...especially with deep systems.

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Just now, TellicoWx said:

Seems like the new G4 data NHC was waiting for has tightened the track up some...GFS little further west, Euro so far North

Yeah, I don't know how either would be preferred over the other though, they both moved closer together so a compromise would be a better way of doing this forecast.

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