weatherdude888 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion: INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading? Also the first line is 06/300z and the second is 06/1200z which is 9 hours and not 12.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NHC is def not biting on the eastward trend yet. I don't blame them. Models still wavering quite a bit. Several days out. But personally I'm not thinking it will be as close to Cuba as they are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jaguars said: I will be mildly surprised if GFS doesn't come back west tonight Doesnt really matter what it shows though. We should heavy ens this until Sat, or there abouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherdude888 said: So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion: INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading? That's 9 hours, given the initial of 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 ABS TV (Antigua and Barbuda) are live-streaming the approach of Hurricane Irma. This is exceptional coverage from the primary source, check it out for as long as they are able to maintain their broadcasts https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/ www.abstvradio.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's 9 hours, given the initial of 03z. Somewhat confused then (my apologies if I am misunderstanding), but that line shows 12H....why then is the time difference only 9 hours then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said: Somewhat confused then (my apologies if I am misunderstanding), but that line shows 12H....why then is the time difference only 9 hours then? It is confusing. I'm not sure why it's like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: It is confusing. I'm not sure why it's like that. I've never really noticed....is it usually like that or is this an error in the 11PM discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion: INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading? Also the first line is 06/300z and the second is 06/1200z which is 9 hours and not 12.... The storm wobbles along it's path. Wouldn't that affect it?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wxsynopsis on Facebook ALERT: G-4 recon data has been injected into the 00z model suite, NOAA NHC says track will likely be adjusted at 5am advisory to reflect the data and the WNW track that has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said: I've never really noticed....is it usually like that or is this an error in the 11PM discussion? I believe that's how they've always done it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It looks like Barbuda is about to get nailed. Also, I'm not seeing the double concentric return maxima on the radar like what I saw earlier this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: It looks like Barbuda is about to get nailed. Also, I'm not seeing the double concentric return maxima on the radar like what I saw earlier this evening. That confirms why the NDBC station only has 51kt gusts. Looks like this has a somewhat small area of highly intense winds. Looking at that it appears 20 mi or so out from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said: I've never really noticed....is it usually like that or is this an error in the 11PM discussion? It's always like that. Initialization refers to the current model cycle not time of the NHC forecast. Therefore 12h = Initial Model cycle + 12 hours or, in this case, 0z Model cycle +12 or 12z. The NHC bulletins coincide with the following model cycles: 5 am: 6z 11 am: 12z 5 pm: 18z 11 pm: 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure I buy the east solutions though. I still like a track near, or just off of the east coast of FL and up into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Tick south so far on 00z GFS. Didn't take long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 ABS TV live streaming: The roofs have come off of some small homes on Antigua, and a Caribbean Television transmission tower is on fire. Winds are gusting over 50 knots. The central pressure of Hurricane Irma has been steady, and intensity shows no sign of weakening, as the storm nears the islands. Telephone system is still intact throughout both islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Tick south so far on 00z GFS. Didn't take long. Still misses Haiti/DR to the N through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 That confirms why the NDBC station only has 51kt gusts. Looks like this has a somewhat small area of highly intense winds. Looking at that it appears 20 mi or so out from the centerIs that dry air entrainment I see on radar? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, mempho said: Is that dry air entrainment I see on radar? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Nope. Check on the water vapor satellite imagery. No dry air close to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mempho said: Is that dry air entrainment I see on radar? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk No, atmospheric conditions are perfect, that's why it's a cat 5. If it's weakening slightly it's just because of internal processes, although none of that is occurring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 No, atmospheric conditions are perfect, that's why it's a cat 5. If it's weakening slightly it's just because of internal processes, although none of that is occurring right now.So, is it still on the table for further strengthening during the diurnal max tonight? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 00z GFS seems to have Irma moving WNW between 36 and 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 identical to 18z thru 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just a smidge West of 18z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mempho said: So, is it still on the table for further strengthening during the diurnal max tonight? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk I supposed so however things seem to have leveled off for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 in the SE Bahamas at 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks a tick faster by 60 also a tick SW of 66hr 18z projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pressures are more reasonable at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Subtle changes so far. Let's see if this run moves closer to the NHC track with a wider turn than shown at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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