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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

It had to come at some point. I also noticed that it's looking a bit less annular and a bit more like convenctive banding especially on the out edges of the storm

I just noticed that. Western side almost seems to be contracting or caving in some. Weird. Eye still looks good and symmetric. I would think land interaction with those tiny islands would do it

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4 minutes ago, socar2001 said:

I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst.  is that still true with this storm?  looks to be equally strong in all quads.

It's the front right that has the winds + forward speed = max winds.  Subtract the forward speed on the left side. 

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1 minute ago, Jaguars said:

Know it's supposed to veer a little north but PR really looks like it could be under the gun.

I think they're going to be good.  That thing is getting real W-NW movement

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6 minutes ago, socar2001 said:

I know usually its understood that the northeastern quadrant of a storm is the worst.  is that still true with this storm?  looks to be equally strong in all quads.

You can't use compass directions. It seems the NE is the worst because we mostly are concerned with hurricanes moving north up the east coast.  Think of it as a vehicle you are driving. Look straight ahead and then over at your front seat passenger.  You just scanned the strongest quadrant.

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161KNOTS SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, SO SHOULD BE 185MPH AT 11

Wait- didn't we just have 167 knots at the surface just a few minutes ago?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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20 minutes ago, jburns said:

You can't use compass directions. It seems the NE is the worst because we mostly are concerned with hurricanes moving north up the east coast.  Think of it as a vehicle you are driving. Look straight ahead and then over at your front seat passenger.  You just scanned the strongest quadrant.

On the weather map, how do they model a wife screaming, "If you are going to drive like a manic,

let me out of the car right now!"

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Just now, mempho said:

Wait- didn't we just have 167 knots at the surface just a few minutes ago?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

The 167 was 3mb up. It looked like the surface due to how Tropical Tidbits is coded. If there is no surface wind report, the surface pressure does not show up.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Crazy how Barbuda only 60 miles or so from the eye are only gusting 40kts

Hmm, very interesting, I suspect that will change.  Looks like a touch of dry air on the west has impacted the storm a bit on the western fringes but the core is holding out strong.  Those wind speeds will ramp quickly I suspect.

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49 minutes ago, senc30 said:

I was thinking that all GFS runs today had shifted some what east.

If that is the case ... and the "shifting" was anything more than "noise", then I stand corrected as far as the GFS is concerned.

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2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

Hmm, very interesting, I suspect that will change.  Looks like a touch of dry air on the west has impacted the storm a bit on the western fringes but the core is holding out strong.  Those wind speeds will ramp quickly I suspect.

that station stopped reporting a while ago. Looks to have gone offline.

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The 167 was 3mb up. It looked like the surface due to how Tropical Tidbits is coded. If there is no surface wind report, the surface pressure does not show up.

3 mb is very close to 10 meters (isn't maximum sustained winds supposed to be a 10m, 10 second sustained wind measurement?

Question is, you drop two sondes, wouldn't you take the higher one because you're trying to sample the maximum 10 second sustained wind?

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Just now, vinylfreak89 said:

that station stopped reporting a while ago. Looks to have gone offline.

Oh, great timing!

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2 minutes ago, mempho said:

3 mb is very close to 10 meters (isn't maximum sustained winds supposed to be a 10m, 10 second sustained wind measurement?

Question is, you drop two sondes, wouldn't you take the higher one because you're trying to sample the maximum 10 second sustained wind?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

how high are the ocean waves at that point?  probably more than 10 meters.  maybe it splashed the top of one.

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That graph is in knots, so 160 knots is 185 MPH.

I know.  They never said it was going to get this strong during the discussions I read.  There's little reason to believe it will lose much intensity until if/when it turns north.  There's too much energy and not much shear. 

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