Planoclima Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: More than half the 00z hurricane models have Irma maintaining Cat 5 or high end cat 4 status thorough day 5. Could be a record breaking storm in many aspects...hopefully not in casualties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, csnavywx said: I've written some doozy TAFs, but this takes the cake. I think I'd be forecasting a lower vis, but I doubt it terribly matters. Not like there's going to be a way to verify it with a sensor when it's been blown away. Yeah I was wondering about both the high visibility and the -shra. Like really? They probably know the airport is shutting down and just saying f it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Closer look of the 00z hurricane models... majority of them are east of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks like Antigua may end up on the good side of the eye...especially if it further jogs north. Barbuda needs a serious north movement and St. Kitts isnt looking good either Been watching St Kitts all day (family hunkered down)... and thinking the slight northern component has spared them the worst... do you disagree? Bleary eyes here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am wondering if Antigua misses the southern eyewall too. It looks like a direct strike to Barbuda as of now. The good news being that Barbuda is flat as a board and only lightly populated (especially by comparison to the dense populations of some of the other islands) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/905224461028380673 what do you guys think 190 mph at 11 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah I was wondering about both the high visibility and the -shra. Like really? They probably know the airport is shutting down and just saying f it. Haha yeah. Personally, I'd be doing 0200-0800 and +SHRA. Hell, throw some PY in there too, since it looks like they're close to water. I mean, if you're gonna forecast 140kt sustained, might as well go all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/905224461028380673 what do you guys think 190 mph at 11 PM Very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Does NHC leave the cone as is at 11 or move it east based on latest model trends and early 00z hurricane models? I think they're pretty far west now compared to most guidance, but then again they have the Euro on their side and that's never a bad thing. Tough call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, chances14 said: That things toast from the surge. Too bad. I think bet case for getting observations is when it goes through the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The timing/sharpness of the northerly turn somewhere near Florida has gotten a lot of attention, but also important to watch a less obvious turn before then. Much of the guidance has a subtle bend to the west commencing north of Hispaniola. How exactly that plays out could matter down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno23 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I think i see a WNW shift on the infrared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That things toast from the surge. Too bad. I think bet case for getting observations is when it goes through the Bahamas The problem there is they didn't bolt that thing to one of those blue sheds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Do the hurricane hunters actually go into the storms at 1,500 ft these days when it's this strong of a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/905224461028380673 what do you guys think 190 mph at 11 PM Doubt it. That was found about 23-24m above the surface IIRC from a poster who posted earlier. Not much but 75 feet off the ground isn't the "surface" to NHC. Hope they do as it would be awesome to see this tie Allen but I'm doubtful right now. I think 185mph is a good spot to stay at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 40 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: I mostly agree, but still think Florida will be spared the direct hit. Once the models can fully grasp the strength of the trough along the east coast, IRMA will head north. GA, SC , NC I feel currently have the best chance of getting a direct hit. Actually not, look at ensembles and looks like the eye coming ashore in Broward county and skirting the coast, Cat 4 winds all the way inland to Lake Okeechobee, not exactly sparring Florida. The big right turn as a fish or beelining to the Carolinas and sparing all of Florida is looking more like wishcasting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, keno23 said: I think i see a WNW shift on the infrared. It has def started. Very noticeable now. Barbuda looks to get hit bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The NOAA HHs are flying this mission at 750mb. At the end of the last pass that was at 8300 ft. In the center of Irma it was 5700 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Coach McGuirk said: Do the hurricane hunters actually go into the storms at 1,500 ft these days when it's this strong of a hurricane? It has to be higher or their cajones would drag the ground. OK, fellow mods. One of you delete me, I just could not resist that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Looks like a good size east shift on some of the models.00z global will be.... interesting. Not all models are created equal. The easterly models really don't matter on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Levi's latest update is up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFW2B5Og5yM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Haha yeah. Personally, I'd be doing 0200-0800 and +SHRA. Hell, throw some PY in there too, since it looks like they're close to water. I mean, if you're gonna forecast 140kt sustained, might as well go all out. Yeah Ive had blpy in a taf that I wrote during Igor in Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: It has to be higher or their cajones would drag the ground. OK, fellow mods. One of you delete me, I just could not resist that one. The reason I ask is because they went into Hurricane Hugo that low and their plane got really messed up. Lost an engine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: The reason I ask is because they went into Hurricane Hugo that low and their plane got really messed up. Lost an engine too. I think I would rather be a lot higher with all the up and down drafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Very possible. It's maxed out out 185. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah Ive had blpy in a taf that I wrote during Igor in Bermuda. Nick, quick OT, but what were your max winds during Igor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Nick, quick OT, but what were your max winds during Igor? 81 kts at the airport...i think the exposed hills hit close to 100 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: The reason I ask is because they went into Hurricane Hugo that low and their plane got really messed up. Lost an engine too. Here you go. Since we are all waiting for flight data I guess this can stay here. Both the WC-130 "Hercules" and the WP-3 "Orion" operate most efficiently at altitudes of 24,000 to 30,000 feet. Since most storms occur some distance from the aircraft's home station the crew usually flies to the storm at high altitudes to conserve fuel. About 200 miles from the storm the aircraft descends to its storm operating level. If the storm is in its infancy such as a depression or tropical storm with winds less than 50 ,mph, the crew operates as close to the surface of the sea as possible--from 500 to 1500 feet. If the storm is more fully developed, either a hurricane or a strong tropical storm, the aircraft flies its pattern, including penetrations to the center, at 10,000 feet altitude. A typical mission will last from 10-12 hours during which time the crew will penetrate to the center of the storm anywhere from 3 to 6 times. When the mission is completed, the aircraft will climb back to high altitude for the trip home. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/weather/hurricane/info/recon.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Does NHC leave the cone as is at 11 or move it east based on latest model trends and early 00z hurricane models? I think they're pretty far west now compared to most guidance, but then again they have the Euro on their side and that's never a bad thing. Tough call Unless I'm mistaken, it is only the 18z GFS that has shifted a bit east. Why would the cone change significantly just due to one model having moved east? What if it's an outlier or a anomaly? There would need to be a general trend, or a good solid reason to think the 18Z GFS was "more right" than everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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