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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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Just now, LandofLincoln said:

Guess the storm is not going through it's weakening phase just yet 

Yea, thought the concentric eyewalls would knock it down, but Irma just doesnt seem to care.

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3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

If they take this as genuine and upgrade to 195mph based on this, we pass Hurricane Allen, which holds the current record.

Why would they not take it as legit? Never seen a  dropsonde observation be disregarded before IIRC.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Why would they not take it as legit? Never seen a  dropsonde observation be disregarded before IIRC.

I dont know, but you gotta play it safe and just throw that in there as a qualifier 

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z GEFS don't really support the op. Shows the uncertainty but in a way, a good thing as it would've been alarming to see a mass shift that way.  

Yeah, looks to me like more than a little suspect.

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12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's true, after all these years of watching the weather, there have been few Category 5s. The historical record has about 32 Category 5's in the Atlantic, since 1924. So that's about 0.34 Category 5 hurricanes are expected in any given year. They don't usually last over 24 hours being classified as a Category 5.

Hurricane Ivan had the most hours at Category 5, since 2000, that was 60 hours. Other ones have been a mere 24 hours or less. Isabel was 42 hours.

Thank you.

I'm one of many here that are waiting for the definitive signal to find out which path Irma takes.

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9 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I see 1 fish member also. Anything still possible. 

The idea with the ensembles is to give weight to the cluster, to the mean. Having one member OTS doesn't suggest you weight that outcome as equally possible. The mean track for 18z is landfall SW Fla and then zig zag up the state.

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Inbound 154-156kt surface winds (NW):

231230 1725N 06024W 6971 02706 9576 +082 +047 059149 152 134 045 00
231300 1724N 06023W 6974 02656 9522 +085 +046 059158 161 151 063 00
231330 1723N 06022W 6955 02640 9472 +088 +048 057153 161 154 066 00
231400 1723N 06021W 6962 02582 9406 +098 +050 062136 143 156 061 03
231430 1722N 06020W 6989 02504 9345 +115 +052 066123 135 154 003 03
231500 1721N 06020W 6954 02503 9290 +132 +053 070108 122 138 000 03

 

Outbound 153kt surface winds (SE):

232400 1705N 06011W 6965 02492 9259 +166 +086 230109 118 133 004 00
232430 1704N 06010W 6986 02537 9369 +119 +087 228132 133 153 032 03
232500 1703N 06009W 6937 02658 9453 +105 +080 227135 137 153 064 00
232530 1702N 06008W 6980 02683 9551 +087 +076 230135 138 147 063 00

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The 226mph winds at 915mb on the dropsnode is ridiculous.

Considering the pressure of Irma is about 917-919 doesn't that means it's just above the surface or am I totally off?

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SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 60.5W
ABOUT  85 MI...140 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT  90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

They kept the winds at 185 for 8 pm

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NHC stayed with 185mph... 916mb at 8pm AST advisory.  Bellwethering, the stubborness of these places sometimes lol.

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Considering the pressure of Irma is about 917-919 doesn't that means it's just above the surface or am I totally off?

934mb surface at the eyewall where the dropsonde was - not center of the eye.

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5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

How high off the ground is that, 1000ft?

Lower, with the pressure as low as it is. It is barely off the surface, hard to give an exact number with pressure uncertain at that location though.

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It appears the 192mph was 3mb above the surface. Surface at 937mb (based on a tweet) data at 934mb. It's about 24 meters off the surface.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Lower, with the pressure as low as it is. It is barely off the surface, hard to give an exact number with pressure uncertain though.

Found an online calculator: 915mb is 178m with a surface pressure of 934mb and temp of 24.4C.

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Just now, Random Chaos said:

Found an online calculator: 915mb is 178m with a surface pressure of 934mb and temp of 24.4C.

Yeah so just a hair under 600' I mean we are talking not too much above skyscraper levels here.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah so just a hair under 600' I mean we are talking not too much above skyscraper levels here.

Below  - from wikipedia:

The U.S. city of MiamiFlorida has the country's third-tallest skyline with over 300 high-rises, 70 of which stand taller than 400 feet (120 m), mainly according to Emporis,[1] SkyscraperPage, and The Skyscraper Center, which is the online database of the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. The tallest building in the city is the 84-story Panorama Tower, which rises 868 feet (265 m) in Miami's Brickell district and on March 24, 2017 surpassed all other buildings in height. It is to be completed by the end of 2017.

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