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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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29 minutes ago, jgf said:

 

The School in L'Orient.., would be pretty low (pun intended..) on my list of places to shelter from a hurricane passing just north of the island...

i can't really think off hand of any large public buildings that are at high elevation, but many houses/villas are

i guess i would probably go to this party and hope for the best!

edit - for those who don't know.., even though it says "Guadeloupe".., it is in Gustavia, St. barth, so just a few miles south of the track- St barth is in the french department of guadeloupe, which includes all the french islands in the caribbean

 

 

FullSizeRender 4.jpg

 

 

Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while.

 

 

st jean beach.jpg

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Max winds up to 180MPH.

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist
mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves
west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions
should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much
of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are
likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place.  The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes
little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater
Antilles.
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20 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said:

Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct?  I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically!  I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE.  So many things still on the table.

Probably not. 

From my understanding 6z doesn't have the upper air included and is a little less reliable in some people'e opinion. 

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23 minutes ago, Wow said:

12z hurr models more east. Several getting back over water before hitting SC...

DPjzhMh.png

Latest advisory still shows west track. Based on this guidance we should be seeing a wnw track begin this evening.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

So did the pressure come up and the winds increased? I can't remember what the pressure was on the last advisory 

The pressure is way down, sub 925mb now.

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They are going to need a special advisory, 11AM only had the minimum pressure at 931mb, should be at least 924-925mb.

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5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

Probably not. 

From my understanding 6z doesn't have the upper air included and is a little less reliable in some people'e opinion. 

Midwest WFOs are launching every 6 hours, so 06z is ingesting some upper air data.

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1 minute ago, AcePuppy said:

11am NHC Forecast

 

7B1xXIE.png

And it's going to make a hard right turn Sunday morning which isn't reflected here.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

They are going to need a special advisory, 11AM only had the minimum pressure at 931mb, should be at least 924-925mb.

They probably can get by until 2pm adv unless winds have increased to something like 190

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5 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said:

This is 852.6... I know it looks like 863 next to the L but that's actually a 5.

Ah, I see now. I do believe that is unchallenged as far as I know in recent memory. It is certainly interesting to view how models project a storm stronger than Tip.

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9 minutes ago, hooralph said:

 

 

Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while.

 

 

st jean beach.jpg

This is moot. Seriously. This will all be wiped out in the storm surge.

 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

They are going to need a special advisory, 11AM only had the minimum pressure at 931mb, should be at least 924-925mb.

They don't issue special advisories based off pressure. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

They probably can get by until 2pm adv unless winds have increased to something like 190

The 11AM advisory was before they had sampled the NE quadrant, which they have since done, so I'm sure the winds are up.

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1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

They don't issue special advisories based off pressure. 

The 180MPH reading wasn't from the strongest part of the storm LOL

 

The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.

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Very concerned about St Kitts - Still slightly south east of them at this hour and the hoped for northern turn may now bring Irma right over them.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

The 180MPH reading wasn't from the strongest part of the storm LOL

 

The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.

I read the same thing you did, however, there's not another category for this storm to go up to (which triggers the special advisory,) so it will likely be updated with the intermediate advisory. 

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My uncle who has a house in Key West said the cop that lives next told him at the 2 pm advisory if it is stronger they are being told the state will issue a full and complete mandatory evacuation of all the FL keys effective by noon tomorrow.    

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4 minutes ago, gakmsg said:

Very concerned about St Kitts - Still slightly south east of them at this hour and the hoped for northern turn may now bring Irma right over them.

This may sound like hyperbole, but I don't know how anyone who is in the direct path that has less than 30' ASL is comfortable riding this out...

7ft - 11 ft surge. Then put massive breakers on top of that.

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