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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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34 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The eye is currently just shy of 1 degree of longitude wide -- or almost the entire width of the southern tip of Florida. To put things in perspective, that is. Worst winds are likely to be in a band about 20 miles in thickness around that (little wider on the right and a little thinner on the left).

Yes, this isn't some pinpoint eye hurricane, as I stated earlier, this reminds me of Donna (similar track too) which had a 100 mile eye when it passed over LI and created nearly a 9 ft storm surge in Manhattan even though the center of the eye passed over Suffolk County.

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know some places will get hit harder, but the western solutions are a reduced aggregage impact to the majority of the populous.Very manageable for the densely populated east coast.

Way to early to know that for sure, We wont know until 79W and where it makes the turn.

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9 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Every model continues to trend west. Some of them are small trends, but Naples and Ft. Myers better be looking sharp on this one. By the way HMON data fouled up on Tidbits, but it looks like it never makes landfall until it reaches the Big Bend. I know, I know, HMON .....

Let's hope the trend continues all the way out in the GOM and no forecasted strengthening.  I have family(Mom and Daughter) in Palm Beach and Broward counties, both are scared witless.  One thing I must say, not scientific at all, but not being in the bullseye 48 hours out does not give me comfort.  Models have a way of reversing, seen it 100's of times, left left left up till 24 hours then a big correction back as real life happens. Like the trend on the models today though.  

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know some places will get hit harder, but the western solutions are a reduced aggregage impact to the majority of the populous.Very manageable for the densely populated east coast.

Conversely the west side of the state hasn't been evacuating and preparing like the east side and we are within 48 hours. That would be disastrous if it runs up the west side instead.

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Just now, lwg8tr0514 said:

Let's hope the trend continues all the way out in the GOM and no forecasted strengthening.  I have family(Mom and Daughter) in Palm Beach and Broward counties, both are scared witless.  One thing I must say, not scientific at all, but not being in the bullseye 48 hours out does not give me comfort.  Models have a way of reversing, seen it 100's of times, left left left up till 243 hours then a big correction back as real life happens. Like the trend on the models today though.  

The move West today was probably your typical over correction, just like we saw it over correct East last night. We probably won't know for sure until tomorrow morning.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know some places will get hit harder, but the western solutions are a reduced aggregage impact to the majority of the populous.Very manageable for the densely populated east coast.

Fort Myers metro area has ~725,000 people. Naples metro is ~370,000. I get what you are saying here, but I want to remind people there is not a path up South Florida where this storm does not have dangerous impacts for a large population.

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16 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Wow, HMON takes a huge dive south on the 12z run -- makes Cuban landfall and doesn't reemerge until it gets to 81W -- which is roughly the longitude at which the GFS makes FL landfall. Can only assume that's an outlier run from what has been an outlier model for the most part.

Almost looks like it takes a bit of a southward jog into the coast.

I remember Isidore unexpectedly plunging into the Yucatan in 2002, but is there anything about the Cuban landmass or this setup that would cause a southward jog?

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2 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Wouldn't that track still keep Broward and PB counties  in the sub 100MPH range?  Not trying to down play it at all but at least it keeps the very worst winds a bit west.

Yes, it wouldn't be the worse case scenario for those areas, but it would be really bad for the Keys, Marco Island and places along that coast.

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3 minutes ago, BMulkey said:

Fort Myers metro area has ~725,000 people. Naples metro is ~370,000. I get what you are saying here, but I want to remind people there is not a path up South Florida where this storm does not have dangerous impacts for a large population.

In case people aren't familiar with some of the areas on the SW FL coast, this is what Marco Island looks like.

 

marco.thumb.JPG.04859f81b0ee6e400acd3315d91881cb.JPG

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Manageable meaning not catastrophic for the most densely populated areas. 80mph gusts in Miami is not a disaster.

Yes, still a nighrmare in general.

Taking the 12z HWRF wind field verbatim, they would likely still experience sustained hurricane force winds for a period, with gusts to 100mph, but obviously that's much less impactful than 160MPH with higher gusts.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

In case people aren't familiar with some of the areas on the SW FL coast, this is what Marco Island looks like.

 

marco.thumb.JPG.04859f81b0ee6e400acd3315d91881cb.JPG

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS MIAMI FL
1141 AM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

FLZ069-082309-
/O.CON.KMFL.SS.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1141 AM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

...Storm Surge Warning issued September 8 at 11:40AM EDT by NWS Miami
FL...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Naples
- Marco Island
- Everglades City

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 3 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 95-115 mph with gusts to 155 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday afternoon
until early Monday morning
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Sunday morning until
Sunday evening
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening and historic storm
surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 8-12 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins Sunday morning
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Yeah you're right Miami is over populated but guess what . Most people from the east coast evacuated to the west coast thinking it wouldn't be as bad . So if the east coast is a ghost town I rather it go there and deal with building issues then all the people who weren't evacuated on the east coast . Hence my mother father nephew broinlaw and pregnant little sister .  

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12 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Wouldn't that track still keep Broward and PB counties  in the sub 100MPH range?  Not trying to down play it at all but at least it keeps the very worst winds a bit west.

I think it would.  In these large ass wind field storms the models overdue the wind speeds far from the center.  I said earlier if the eye passes 60-80 miles west of that corridor they'd probably see 70-80 gusts to 100 but I would be amazed if they saw anything more than that and also it would be a 2-3 hour period probably where they saw winds that strong 

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1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

Yeah you're right Miami is over populated but guess what . Most people from the east coast evacuated to the west coast thinking it wouldn't be as bad . So if the east coast is a ghost town I rather it go there and deal with building issues then all the people who weren't evacuated on the east coast . Hence my mother father nephew broinlaw and pregnant little sister .  

I doubt that most people living in Miami metro left, but I really have no idea. I'm curious how many people actually left and how many stayed.

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