moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 What's the take on the lower Keys? The west comments all talk about the peninsula but I've seen little in the way of Key West, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Roy said: Some people wondered if the west trend would continue, and it keeps happening. People in Miami may never listen to evacuation orders again.... You evacuate due to the possibility of a major hitting your area, not because it is certain. By the time it is certain, it is too late and many are now in harms way. This has been the way it has gone for years. Silly comment. Those folks know it is an abundance of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I agree. Also the 0z Euro has a west track that should begin right around now and last for a good part of the day. If that doesn't happen, or is shorter in duration than advertised, the LF near the SW coast is far less likely. Either way, we should find out over the next 6-12 hrs if this south/west trend is real. Yeah and right now its certainly moving North of Due West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 06z hurricane model guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What's the take on the lower Keys? The west comments all talk about the peninsula but I've seen little in the way of Key West, etc. The further west it tracks, the more of the middle/upper keys will get over wash, but I expect the lower keys will get Gulf side flooding. For what over wash will do, google some 1935 Islamorada storm pics. Especially the ones with the train engine. ETA: Here is a pic from the wiki page on the '35 storm. Note that the damage was what happened after the reef mitigated the surge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 34 minutes ago, Paragon said: Some people have the idea that they're going to escape the surge by going higher up- which is really bad for the reasons you stated. I'm not sure this can get back to Cat 5 again but it's definitely better to have it weakening right now than start intensifying from 170 later on- I'm not sure where that'd lead and really not willing to find out (even from afar.) In addition to going high up in tall buildings, in a city such as Maimi, there are high-rise buildings close toghether that will cause an "Venturi effect" that will increase the winds between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 My goodness what a nail biter. Went to bed with folks debating if the NAM was onto something, and wake-up to folks wondering if this goes to Fort Myers. I'm less confident today than I was yesterday. What a nail biter. Funny, I mentioned the potential major issues with the hi-rises last night and it was blown off by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jasons said: My goodness what a nail biter. Went to bed with folks debating if the NAM was onto something, and wake-up to folks wondering if this goes to Fort Myers. I'm less confident today than I was yesterday. What a nail biter. Funny, I mentioned the potential major issues with the hi-rises last night and it was blown off by some. I guess they forgot what Wilma did to the high rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Tropical models shift west too. Look out SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro has been quicker with NE trough and is now connecting the atlantic ridge to the lakes ridge...maybe a tick more west if that keeps up. Tight agreement with bulk of members over the keys now at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Even two days ago the national media was hammering away at Miami as absolute certain Ground Zero which I raised an eyebrow at. Concerning there isn't a single ECMWF ensemble member East of Miami. Have you been reading here at all last few days? Exact placement of the eye not critical, Miami still in very dire straits right now, being close if not in the RFQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Very happy to wake up and see a relatively ragged core. Sometimes these massive systems just never seem to recover from such an internal disruption. Hoping the NHC was correct with its earlier forecasts of steady weakening up to landfall. A further west track and a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 would alleviate so much potential devastation. And a track up the spine would also avoid significant damage to the west coast. Trying to make lemonade out of lemons here maybe, but the current trends are very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: A LF on west side Everglades NP is far better than a LF on the east side! Not good for Keys however, and Naples could now be looking at some serious wind issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: A LF on west side Everglades NP is far better than a LF on the east side! Not good for Keys however, and Naples could now be looking at some serious wind issues. Yeah that has to much NNW component after landfall. If it came in there and went N or NNE it would avoid population centers for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro has been quicker with NE trough and is now connecting the atlantic ridge to the lakes ridge...maybe a tick more west if that keeps up. Tight agreement with bulk of members over the keys now at hour 60. If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said: Have you been reading here at all last few days? Exact placement of the eye not critical, Miami still in very dire straits right now, being close if not in the RFQ. Oh please; it was more concern for Tampa than declaring Miami out of the woods. There is an unfortunate history in Florida of people having weird geographic constructs. In Charley (a tiny storm, mind you) people in the landfall area (despite having adequate hurricane watches and warnings) had a rock solid belief that landfall would be in Tampa and they would be unaffected; which is what the national media hammered away on. It took a deviation of a few degrees to bring it into Port Charlotte. This is still perceived by the public as some sort of massive, unprecedented forecast error which actually isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Seminole said: If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete Actually far worse for the west coast of Fla vs what Matthew was for the east coast of Fla- for two reasons. 1) west coast of Fla will be exposed to the RFQ if the west trend continues 2) the west coastline of Fla actually would slope towards Irma while the east coastline of Fla sloped away from Matthew. All of that has major surge implications (not to mention the geography of the basin in that region makes it much more vulnerable to surge than the east coast of Fla.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Last pass shows FL winds coming back up. Pressure is steady, but the p-min is broad. Still a bit of an IEW max there, so it's not totally dead yet (IR confirms this). Eye temp is back up to 20-21C at flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks like the ERC is finally finishing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames. That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track. Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well. Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work. SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The hurricane models show a different evolution than the Euro too. They don't really have it near Cuba, it just takes more of a NNW motion late in the track vs taking the strong west motion today into tonight so it may not weaken as much near Cuba on their track vs the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Radar out of Cuba also confirms. Still a bit of a ragged IEW, but that probably will diminish soon. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like the ERC is finally finishing up... Yeah will probably be done in a few hours. Max SFC winds down quite a bit at the moment, roughly 115 kts. We'll see if that holds when the ERC is done or if it begins to climb again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames. That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track. Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well. Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work. SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset. I see that too. If that last a few more frames.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete The trend has been for narrowing down the possible landfall within the expected area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames. That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track. Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well. Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work. SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset. There's some data to suggest that it'll avoid cuba, despite the Euro's better handle on this storm I really wouldn't be surprised if it manages to stay far enough away from Cuba to prevent significant disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, hazwoper said: You evacuate due to the possibility of a major hitting your area, not because it is certain. By the time it is certain, it is too late and many are now in harms way. This has been the way it has gone for years. Silly comment. Those folks know it is an abundance of caution. You have a lot of faith in the average person's understanding of the cone. No matter what, Miami will get bad stuff no doubt. The storm is huge. Just saying a big shift west means the perception on the ground will be less, and folks will say in future storms they survived a major so it's not that bad when one comes that hits them in the core directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Derecho! said: Oh please; it was more concern for Tampa than declaring Miami out of the woods. There is an unfortunate history in Florida of people having weird geographic constructs. In Charley (a tiny storm, mind you) people in the landfall area (despite having adequate hurricane watches and warnings) had a rock solid belief that landfall would be in Tampa and they would be unaffected; which is what the national media hammered away on. It took a deviation of a few degrees to bring it into Port Charlotte. This is still perceived by the public as some sort of massive, unprecedented forecast error which actually isn't true. The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida. I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm. The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point. I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 10 minutes ago, Seminole said: If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete The trend has been for narrowing down the possible landfall within the expected area. Gulf coast huger is still in the 'expected area'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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