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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

Barring negative interaction in some way with Cuba, I think Irma has a very good chance at strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. It's a big hurricane, so there's a limit to some extent, but I think the pressure could drop a decent amount.

Do you think it can become a cat 5 again?

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4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Kind of surprised. I thought the same, but really didn't take too much of a toll on the end result for Keys. Slightly weaker in pressure, but winds were fairly consistent. Splitting hairs at a few mph. Horrendous run for MTH and entire island chain. Miami I'm sure would take this and run. Feel bad for Keys though. 

Edit: Actually deepened further as it entered the Florida Bay. That's got the warmest waters in all the Eastern Gulf area. 90-92 degrees. Horrible run for Naples

Is that the same general area where the 1935 hurricane reached Cat 5 status?

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5 minutes ago, Morris said:

The pressure has risen 8 mb since last night. It might only be a Cat 3 at this moment.

Seriously doubt it.

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Do you think it can become a cat 5 again?

Yes, quite possible assuming it completes the ERC, as it appears it is.

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Something important to note is the location where Irma is forecasted to make landfall is incredibly flat and marsh-like. Southern Fla. is arguably the most hospitable area in the CONUS for a hurricane to make landfall. Given a Euro/GFS track I think it's more than likely that Irma maintains at least a high end Cat 3 status up to Lake Okeechobee.

Also the latest GFS/Euro track has southeast FLA in the RFQ, meaning winds will be strongest and the background flow will be additive, which will be especially important as she accelerates upon making LF.

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4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Is that the same general area where the 1935 hurricane reached Cat 5 status?

No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. 

1280px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.thumb.png.c5246aa688e9511557efb6f25fb6b918.png

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. 

1280px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.thumb.png.c5246aa688e9511557efb6f25fb6b918.png

Thanks!  One of the interesting stories I heard about that one was that the winds were so fierce that friction with the sand actually caused sparks and fires.

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15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. 

1280px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.thumb.png.c5246aa688e9511557efb6f25fb6b918.png

Near as I can figure, the closest analogy is Donna.

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:


Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida


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Those shifts are all in the margin of error at this point. 30-50 mile swings are nothing. The eye could be that big.

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4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:


Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida


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The model runs today and tomorrow will be really big in determining the final landfall. It's certainly within the margin of track error at 60-72 hrs to shift back to the east again closer to MIA.

Last few Euro runs

tr4.png.99deaf3650023143969111a1102653de.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The westward shift on 0z Euro keeps the core of eastern eyewall just west of the big SE FL population centers.

 

New run

ecmwf_uv10g_miami_12.thumb.png.31b9a6bafc6e6434568e0f83044dd3df.png

old run

OLD.thumb.png.1f5444b2d152299e48cc79bd6a83a426.png

 

Thanks for posting. Is that the closest pass to Miami?

Seperately, the exact track of the eye will never be resolved, and errors inside 48 hrs, can easily be 50 miles or more as a result of nuanced wobbles and mesoscale effects. That said, I think the important take away here is the graze track has lost considerable weight and if the east coast takes a direct hit it will most likely be in the strongest quadrant. 

 

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks for posting. Is that the closest pass to Miami?

Seperately, the exact track of the eye will never be resolved, and errors inside 48 hrs, can easily be 50 miles or more as a result of nuanced wobbles and mesoscale effects. That said, I think the important take away here is the graze track has lost considerable weight and if the east coast takes a direct hit it will most likely be in the strongest quadrant. 

 

See my reply above to DC

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4 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

If the ECMWF continues a west trend the area from MIA-FLL-PBI won't see too much damage. 

Big if. Even if the current ECMWF were to verify the surge comes up into MIA. Also...if you have a 40 mile wide eye it still puts those areas in the eye wall. Sure it could go west...and then again...it could go east. 

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Would any of the meteorologists here care to share their best guesses about the overall model track shifts?

We've seen an east trend, west trend, east a little bit and now west shift overnight so that Florida landfall

may be just on the left side of Key Largo.   LF  closer to Homestead?  Next collective model shift and why, please?

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