Major Hurricane Irma

[PSLwx]

Wow!

[andyhb]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure seems like folks getting upset it's "weaker". Check yourself. While it is fascinating as weather nerds, stuff like this has life altering impact to the person on your left or your right. There is also the economical impact that you yourself may eventually  feel one way or another. There is always a trickle down affect with catastrophic events. 

I'm seeing a lot of trying to attribute an effect to a cause without scientific support.

[LakeEffectKing]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100

Can't get better than above....that said, Jose is doing just fine as a little brother.

[Amped]

Yeah the maximum winds have gone down, but thats just because the pressure gradient and winds have spread out, not due to an actual energy decrease. 

In other words, it's not weaker, just less focused. Ignore the probably temporary lower wind speeds.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Are people looking at the same graphics?  Irma looks no less destructive/damaging than she did an hour ago.  

[Casualbrain]

FEMA chatter isn't positive about this storm folks - DHS is going to have to pull out all the stops, and they're already tapped out from Harvey.
If you can volunteer with relief efforts please do so, or see my earlier post (check my profile) about working this event for FEMA (provided they accept your application).

 

[OUGrad05]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Yeah the maximum winds have gone down, but thats just because the pressure gradient and winds have spread out, not due to an actual energy decrease. 

In other words, it's not weaker, just less focused. Ignore the probably temporary lower wind speeds.

Hopefully the windspeed decrease is permanent.  Even in relatively well built Miami 175mph winds will do some serious damage to many structures.  

[Coach McGuirk]

4 minutes ago, PSLwx said:

Wow!

They're different type of hurricanes.  the core is still the same. 

[Casualbrain]

4 hours ago, Casualbrain said:

IF YOU CAN HELP - just got this STAT message from DHS/FEMA:

 

On behalf of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's Director, Glen Woodbury

As you are all very much aware, our Nation has sustained severe flooding and damage as a result of Hurricane Harvey, and we are anticipating major impacts from Hurricanes Irma and possibly Jose. This is the peak of the hurricane season and it is far from over; to this end, we are reaching out to you to help in response and recovery efforts. FEMA is looking to recruit personnel, with an expected deployment of 30 days, in the following areas:

Program Area: Skillset Required

Individual Assistance: Survivor outreach and communication, case management

Logistics: Load and unload trucks; coordinate and deliver resources; track inventory

IT: Establish connectivity for facilities; install, track, and manage equipment; configure communications equipment

Disaster Survivor Assistance: Engage directly with survivors; demonstrate understanding of available programs; case management

Hazard Mitigation: Floodplain management, mitigation strategies for the built environment, flood insurance, FEMA’s grant programs and authorities

Disaster Emergency Communications: Set up, operation, and shut down of communications vehicles; installation of voice and data cables; knowledge of radio protocols

External Affairs: Communications, Congressional and intergovernmental affairs, media analysis, media relations, tribal affairs, private sector relations

Environmental and Historic Preservation: Knowledge of environmental, historic, and floodplain management processes and regulations

Human Resources: Human resources specialists and managers


Finance: Travel arrangements and budget controls


Acquisitions: Contracting officers, purchasing specialists, and procurement specialists

If you are available to serve in one or more of these areas, please send your résumé to FEMA-CAREERS at fema.dhs.gov, and please put “Higher Ed” in the subject line. Feel free to also share this request throughout your networks. This is a great opportunity to serve the Nation and support our survivors in this time of need.

Heather Issvoran

Director, Strategic Communications

Contract Support for The Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Cell: 831.402.4672

hissvora at nps.edu
1 University Circle, Building 220, Room 064

Monterey, CA 93943

 

Bumping this - mods feel free to delete my repost if improper.

[andyhb]

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

They're different type of hurricanes.  the core is still the same. 

Storm surge, i.e. typically the deadliest part of a tropical cyclone, is entirely different.

[LandofLincoln]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Are people looking at the same graphics?  Irma looks no less destructive/damaging than she did an hour ago.  

People are just seeing a decrease in maximum wind speed and jumping to irrational conclusions.

[Crazy4Wx]

Just now, andyhb said:

Storm surge, i.e. typically the deadliest part of a tropical cyclone, is entirely different.

Yeah....Irma has had a week to build her surge at cat 5 status...Andrew never had that. Also the angle she is projected to come in is about as bad as you can get. 

[tacoman25]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Yeah the maximum winds have gone down, but thats just because the pressure gradient and winds have spread out, not due to an actual energy decrease. 

In other words, it's not weaker, just less focused. Ignore the probably temporary lower wind speeds.

Yeah, I'm not sure a bigger hurricane is necessarily a more damaging one. People seem to be focused on the fact that Irma is so much bigger than Andrew, a storm that was very powerful and damaging. I would be interested to hear from the pros if larger hurricanes actually tend to do more damage than more compact ones, or vice versa.

I realize that larger wind fields are more likely to create a bigger storm surge, but there's more to it than that.

[Coach McGuirk]

Hurricane Andrew was small and strong and got cat 5 status at landfall.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can just ignore...but seems like you want to talk about it?

Its not a moral thing. You can be fascinated by it and still comprehend a societal impact. You can also stick to the facts/science and stop wishing it one way or another.

Whats wrong with being objective and full of common sense?

1

In this case, it is about to get you suspended.  Drop it now.

[Jim Martin]

Evening look at Major Hurricane Irma.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Yeah, I'm not sure a bigger hurricane is necessarily a more damaging one. People seem to be focused on the fact that Irma is so much bigger than Andrew, a storm that was very powerful and damaging. I would be interested to hear from the pros if larger hurricanes actually tend to do more damage than more compact ones, or vice versa.

I realize that larger wind fields are more likely to create a bigger storm surge, but there's more to it than that.

Much more widespread damage with a bigger storm along with a bigger surge. Bigger storm at this capacity is much worse than a small core storm like Andrew.

[jasons]

2 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Yeah, I'm not sure a bigger hurricane is necessarily a more damaging one. People seem to be focused on the fact that Irma is so much bigger than Andrew, a storm that was very powerful and damaging. I would be interested to hear from the pros if larger hurricanes actually tend to do more damage than more compact ones, or vice versa.

I realize that larger wind fields are more likely to create a bigger storm surge, but there's more to it than that.

Damage to FLL was minimal from Andrew. Put Irma at the same location, and FLL gets pounded. Big difference. Especially when it comes to surge.

[andyhb]

5 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Yeah, I'm not sure a bigger hurricane is necessarily a more damaging one. People seem to be focused on the fact that Irma is so much bigger than Andrew, a storm that was very powerful and damaging. I would be interested to hear from the pros if larger hurricanes actually tend to do more damage than more compact ones, or vice versa.

I realize that larger wind fields are more likely to create a bigger storm surge, but there's more to it than that.

Well with it approaching a large, low lying metropolitan area (not to mention having spent a very long time as a Cat 5), it's really just that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks very healthy to me with typical fluctuations expected when you get a systematic set of clouds maxing out the atmosphere while traveling 2000+ miles. 

[CheeselandSkies]

7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

All I can say is I hope your joking or that this is your first post on this board...

Pretty sure he meant better organized than it was, not better organized than Irma. Irma, no matter a 10 mph difference in the winds, has maintained remarkably perfect or near-perfect high end hurricane structure for an astounding length of time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Jim Martin said:

Evening look at Major Hurricane Irma.

A thing of beauty. One of the healthiest looking TC's I've seen in a long time.

[JayPSU]

I don't think I've ever seen a cat 5 hurricane be more than halfway through an ERC and maintain cat 5 status.  Truly amazing.  Btw, it's the ERC that is causing the temporary "disorganization," not phantom dry air or land interaction.  

[kenavp]

I feel pretty confident that we're not going to see the acute damage as seen with Andrew. You look at pictures of Andrew's devastation and it actually looks like a giant EF4 tornado swept through southern Florida. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough, but I don't think I've ever seen pictures of comparable hurricane structural damage. 

Not saying Irma's total impact isn't going to be far greater, but on the micro level, Andrew was just insane. 

[ALhurricane]

It's pretty simple. Microwave data and recon show an ERC. As a result, the wind field has expanded and peak winds have come down a bit but still measured at Cat 5 in the NW eyewall. Pressure holding steady as well. Once ERC is complete, it may be off to the races again. 

Those are the facts. 

[superjames1992]

Just curious on any meteorologists' opinions on whether this thing has any chance to continue to trend west and end up going into the eastern Gulf and make landfall on the western FL coast or panhandle?  I don't think it's particularly likely, but it would be a complete disaster here considering what marginal cat 1 Hermine did here last year...

It just seemingly wouldn't take too extreme or a shift to make it a possibility, which is a bit scary.  A major hurricane hitting Tampa Bay would be a nightmare with storm surge, too.

[CarbondaleWX]

1 minute ago, kenavp said:

I feel pretty confident that we're not going to see the acute damage as seen with Andrew. You look at pictures of Andrew's devastation and it actually looks like a giant EF4 tornado swept through southern Florida. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough, but I don't think I've ever seen pictures of comparable hurricane structural damage. 

Not saying Irma's total impact isn't going to be far greater, but on the micro level, Andrew was just insane. 

Buildings are better prepared for hurricanes since Andrew as well.  Doesn't mean to take this storm lightly but Andrew changed the game when it came to building codes in Florida.

[tacoman25]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Much more widespread damage with a bigger storm along with a bigger surge. Bigger storm at this capacity is much worse than a small core storm like Andrew.

Ok, so you think a larger area with lesser damage is worse than a smaller area of more intense damage?

I realize these things can be complicated, depends exactly where it hits and what the storm is doing when it hits, etc. What would the most comparable storm, as far as current size/strength/longevity to Irma? People keep on pointing to Andrew because of Miami, obviously, but I'm wondering what more similar storms have hit the U.S.

 

[jasons]

1 minute ago, CarbondaleWX said:

Buildings are better prepared for hurricanes since Andrew as well.  Doesn't mean to take this storm lightly but Andrew changed the game when it came to building codes in Florida.

Yes, new ones. But most of the older structures in Miami proper were mostly untouched by Andrew since it was so small. Homestead and the southern suburbs were ground zero. There are a lot of older buildings in North, NW Miami, Hialeah, etc., that are low-income apartment buildings and practically falling over.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, jburns said:

In this case, it is about to get you suspended.  Drop it now.

Huh?

The midwest trough looks a tad progressive on WV. Curious how guidance handles it overnight and tomorrow.