jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, bobbutts said: 24 hr ago It's useful in a sense. Looks like most of these models were slightly too far NE with the center yesterday compared to where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 guys and gals, not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but we've had a couple of X-class and a couple of M-class solar flares over the last 36 hours (one of which was an X-9). I know this won't directly affect Irma itself. But we've been apparently been wavering between a G-2 and G-4 geomagnetic storm over the last few hours, and may do so for another 24-48 hours. this type of geomagnetic storm may affect satellites and their data, as well as some radio transmissions. hopefully this doesn't degrade any data we will be getting on Irma (and Jose and Katia) from up top for the next few days, when we need it the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just want to say I appreciate all the Mets along with all the great posters on here. Makes dealing with these kinds of events much easier when you have the best information. I'll be happy when it's over, already been a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I haven't seen her look this heathy since right before she hit the Leeward Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otown Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: Edit: Updated. Sorry put wrong map at first. Maybe I've looked at too many models the past couple of days & I'm going crazy but doesn't this look like its pushing east again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, andyhb said: Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good. Well it's unfortunate that it's partial coverage, but yeah, I'm not seeing much of IEW in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 0Z Hurricane models are horrifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, otown said: Maybe I've looked at too many models the past couple days & I'm going crazy but doesn't this look like its pushing east again? The models seem to oscillating 30-50 miles per run..they go east...they go west..then back east...and on. Unfortunately...those shifts mean a lot due to the population densities. All in all though..pretty good model agreement on a Southern Florida hit/raking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 With negligible rain rates found in the SE inner wind maxima vs an absence of an outer wind maxima on in the NW side of the eye, I'd imagine convection of the IEW is "crescent moon" shape in the northern semicircle and is starting to get aborbed/breaking down. See the rain rates in the SFMR upper right chart below.Appears this will be the first ERC process in days that will fully complete. The OEW looks large and menacing on that microwave pass.I know people are probably sick to death of seeing people talk about ERCs the past few days that were or were not there, or were there and failed to complete. That does not appear to be the case now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z Hurricane models are horrifying Definitely moved west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: guys and gals, not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but we've had a couple of X-class and a couple of M-class solar flares over the last 36 hours (one of which was an X-9). I know this won't directly affect Irma itself. But we've been apparently been wavering between a G-2 and G-4 geomagnetic storm over the last few hours, and may do so for another 24-48 hours. this type of geomagnetic storm may affect satellites and their data, as well as some radio transmissions. hopefully this doesn't degrade any data we will be getting on Irma (and Jose and Katia) from up top for the next few days, when we need it the most. yup, my power went out for a few seconds this morning. (which it almost never does) kinda odd. The effects from the big one (X-9 or X-10) won't reach earth till tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 1/2 times the IKE of Andrew at this point. If anyone at this point is comparing potential surge/surge impacts between the two, yeah we're on an entirely different scale here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z Hurricane models are horrifying Wow. 100% consensus of landfall. Major west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 40+ foot waves right now targeting Turks and Caicos. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: 5 1/2 times the IKE of Andrew at this point. If anyone at this point is comparing potential surge/surge impacts between the two, yeah we're on an entirely different scale here. Katrinas size and Andrews wind speeds hitting one of the most populated areas in the United States. Absolute worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Any info coming out of the Turks and Caicos?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otown Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 All schools in Florida closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Uh no? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes they did, pretty big shift W in fact compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Uh no? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Def west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Need this to shift another 30 miles west..maybe 40 and have it just go up the gut of florida. Probably best chance to minimize destruction. Keeps it dead middle between Glades City/Naples and the east coast cities and weakens it enough by the time it gets to ORL maybe it's just a strong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 40+ foot waves right now targeting Turks and Caicos. Wow. That is a disaster for them. Some areas around there, barely have any elevation. I feel like that place might be ruined like Barbuda was when word gets out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Need this to shift another 30 miles west..maybe 40 and have it just go up the gut of florida. Probably best chance to minimize destruction. Keeps it dead middle between Glades City/Naples and the east coast cities and weakens it enough by the time it gets to ORL maybe it's just a strong 2 The Euro basically did that and still would be extremely destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Winds much lower in SW quad this pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z Hurricane models are horrifying Yeah, that's about as hopeless looking as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Need this to shift another 30 miles west..maybe 40 and have it just go up the gut of florida. Probably best chance to minimize destruction. Keeps it dead middle between Glades City/Naples and the east coast cities and weakens it enough by the time it gets to ORL maybe it's just a strong 2 Think the Euro did this, eye was so big it resulted in the eyewall hitting basically the entire southern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 There are only about 500k people in Miami....Miami metro is about 5.5 million. No idea at what elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: There are only about 500k people in Miami.... That's just the city limits, the metropolitan area is being referred to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdcrds4 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The 0z model runs are really not any father west other then the ones that were out in the water moved close together right over the Lake. This all makes for good talk and to be prepared but until the turn happens i really don't think anyone from my coast in Sarasota or the other coast Miami are any more safe then the other. I think it stands more of a chance to go up the east coast then the west but i would put odds at only 60/40 of it going east coast then west coast. This makes it very hard on what to do as right now on the West coast we are looking at a wind event but if it were to come up the west coast then come up the east the difference is huge. If i was on the east coast it would be simple id leave. But in Sarasota it is hard. I have kids are there Dads house as it is his days with the kids and he is staying put. I can't up and leave my kids and go out of state. But if it changes to the west coast that is a whole new ballgame. I really think all these models and runs are just something to latch onto to pass time away till we see with our own eyes the turn that matters for millions of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, otown said: All schools in Florida closed tomorrow. All schools closed tomorrow and Monday. Some terrible admin's in South Florida were telling parents they might be open Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Cloud tops warming right now, maybe she'll weaken quite a bit and there's always the potential for land interaction from Cuba. It could still shift further west and minimize the damage. There's always something to be optimistic about, remember how Lili rapidly fell apart prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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