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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, 892 mb is the lowest barometric pressure ever observed in the US, which was during the 1935 hurricane.   But that was in the Keys.  I *think* the US mainland record is around 920 mb, and if that's the case, Irma might have a shot...

900mb in Camille in 1969 from the NOAA AOML hurricane reanalysis.  They are doing the 1960s now but did a special reanalysis of Camille since there was a fair amount of speculation about wind speed (which was reduced to 175 mph) and barometric pressure. 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/kieper-landsea-beven-bams-2016.pdf

And, just because it's cool, here's a radar .gif animation of the approach to landfall. Made from photocopies of the wet-film images that were captured by a camera pointed at the old WSR-57 radar display. You can clearly see the double-eye wall structure of Camille  

IMG_2724.GIF.eb79901e5fc37c2fbbc5dc8df2a51e42.GIF

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5 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

One would have to think that should the 18Z GFS verify, Irma would shatter all storm records in terms of damage cost in dollars.  Certainly 2017 will go down as the costliest hurricane season on record.

Not to mention This run would also result in very high inland wind/gusts into ga, sc and the mountains. It would appear winds will be enhanced by the fact of wedging/high over the northeast. Euro was showing 10 meter winds gusting as high as 75 to 90mph  over all of ga/sc and this run of the gfs would likely be even worse since the track remains closer to the coast (less weakening vs an inland track) yet the low ends up near atlanta by 105. So widespread power outages are likely well inland...including atlanta. Such a track would also keep make for significantly higher storm surge along the ga/lower sc coast. A 18z gfs track is about as bad as it gets. 

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5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Not to mention This run would also result in very high inland wind/gusts into ga, sc and the mountains. It would appear winds will be enhanced by the fact of wedging/high over the northeast. Euro was showing 10 meter winds gusting as high as 75 to 90mph  over all of ga/sc and this run of the gfs would likely be even worse since the track remains closer to the coast (less weakening vs an inland track) yet the low ends up near atlanta by 105. So widespread power outages are likely well inland...including atlanta. Such a track would also keep make for significantly higher storm surge along the ga/lower sc coast. A 18z gfs track is about as bad as it gets. 

Yeah this track can affect 20+ million people easily...maybe even 25 million.

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4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Not to mention This run would also result in very high inland wind/gusts into ga, sc and the mountains. It would appear winds will be enhanced by the fact of wedging/high over the northeast. Euro was showing 10 meter winds gusting as high as 75 to 90mph  over all of ga/sc and this run of the gfs would likely be even worse since the track remains closer to the coast (less weakening vs an inland track) yet the low ends up near atlanta by 105. So widespread power outages are likely well inland...including atlanta. Such a track would also keep make for significantly higher storm surge along the ga/lower sc coast. A 18z gfs track is about as bad as it gets. 

Yeah, verbatim the inland wind damage looks to be significant.  I recall that more lives were lost in W Ga and E Ala from trees falling onto peoples homes while they slept than were killed were Opal made landfall in the Fla panhandle.  

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Here's my track map and performance so far (in better quality, I update it in my sig...but it is pretty low quality).

 

If I had to make some tweeks, I might adjust the LF position by a few miles west, and a compelling argument could be made for a closer track along the Cuban coastline, however, I still believe there will be enough of a tug from the trough in the eastern US to keep Irma a bit more north of Cuba.

untitled.png

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9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Not to mention This run would also result in very high inland wind/gusts into ga, sc and the mountains. It would appear winds will be enhanced by the fact of wedging/high over the northeast. Euro was showing 10 meter winds gusting as high as 75 to 90mph  over all of ga/sc and this run of the gfs would likely be even worse since the track remains closer to the coast (less weakening vs an inland track) yet the low ends up near atlanta by 105. So widespread power outages are likely well inland...including atlanta. Such a track would also keep make for significantly higher storm surge along the ga/lower sc coast. A 18z gfs track is about as bad as it gets. 

I'm thinking about the 1 billion dollars in damage in North Carolina from Hugo, mostly from wind damage. If this run inland into Georgia verifies, it could be the state's most damaging natural disaster, like Hugo was for NC until Fran. 

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I hope the mods and members don't mind me taking the time to give a shout out to @forecasterjack and his introducing me into his site weather.us. (Since it is a bit of Irma dead time)  I know we often get people pimping sites (personal and others), but this is one of the better ones that have been "sold" to me/us (free of charge!!) since I've been a member here (and at Eastern) ever.

Kudos Jack!  Look forward to more products, and thank you!

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29 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

One would have to think that should the 18Z GFS verify, Irma would shatter all storm records in terms of damage cost in dollars.  Certainly 2017 will go down as the costliest hurricane season on record.

If you would have told me three weeks ago that we could be staring down the realistic barrel of unseating 2005 for the rather dubious distinction of the costliest season on record before the peak of the season, I would have swiped Randy's credentials and tagged you on the spot,myself.

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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I hope the mods and members don't mind me taking the time to give a shout out to @forecasterjack and his introducing me into his site weather.us. (Since it is a bit of Irma dead time)  I know we often get people pimping sites (personal and others), but this is one of the better ones that have been "sold" to me/us (free of charge!!) since I've been a member here (and at Eastern) ever.

Kudos Jack!  Look forward to more products, and thank you!

Agreed! The fact that it offers free ECMWF HRES 3-hr panels is absolutely stunning. That's something the weather forum community has been seeking for years.

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2 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said:

Agreed! The fact that it offers free ECMWF HRES 3-hr panels is absolutely stunning. That's something the weather forum community has been seeking for years.

Off topic but is it legitimate to be giving away hi-res EURO data for free? Might want to keep this one under wraps.

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I hope the mods and members don't mind me taking the time to give a shout out to @forecasterjack and his introducing me into his site weather.us. (Since it is a bit of Irma dead time)  I know we often get people pimping sites (personal and others), but this is one of the better ones that have been "sold" to me/us (free of charge!!) since I've been a member here (and at Eastern) ever.

Kudos Jack!  Look forward to more products, and thank you!

Much appreciated, I'm glad you guys are enjoying the site! We're a startup with a relatively small base, so if you guys can help spread the word about some of the stuff we do that no one else does (like the full res ECMWF for free :)), please do! 

As always, let me know if you have any questions about the site!

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