Major Hurricane Irma

[NJwx85]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think PBI or FLL would see as strong a winds with that as they would if it came right over top of them.  They could be over 40 miles from the center on that track conceivably.  The direction of the wind may be worse however 

I guess if you buy the NNW track up the spine of Florida, not sure I do. I think a NNE track after landfall is more likely.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I guess if you buy the NNW track up the spine of Florida, not sure I do. I think a NNE track after landfall is more likely.

that would be an unusual track...if you look at most canes there they tend to go up one coast or the other or cut NE from SW FL (Donna, Charley etc)

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. 

That said, simply having Irma absorbed into a cut -off in that position makes his outcome more interesting. 

Actually the trough pulls out and Jose ends up in weak steering currents East of the Bahamas. Also while we're all focused on Irma, Jose tracks excruciatingly close to the Leeward islands.

[Drz1111]

Also remember that despite folk repeatedly throwing around the 'epic' and 'biblical' and stuff, most damage in a hurricane is limited.  (When Harvey hit Houston, all of my earth-science friends stayed behind despite the squeals from this board, and all but one had no damage to their homes and none regretted staying behind.)  Most hurricane landfalls don't do that much damage, which is why the ones that DO cause a lot of damage are so notable.  If Andrew had made landfall 50 miles south, most of the kids on the board would remember it as a slightly strong Bret (and it likely wouldn't have been upgraded in reanalysis).

Recall that San Juan just missed a 185mph hurricane by what, 50 miles, and there was minimal damage.  A near-miss is still a miss and even with the wide windfield of this storm, Cat 1 conditions over Miami will cause minimal damage.  There's around a 60 mile hole - the Everglades - which a hurricane can slip through on a SSE-NNW approach.  The Euro hits -exactly- that spot.  Any deviation to the east would be disastrous.  Any deviation to the west puts Naples/Fort Myers in the line of fire, and that sucks, but it's WAY better than the Dade/Broward side which has 10x the population.

[andyhb]

3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Also remember that despite folk repeatedly throwing around the 'epic' and 'biblical' and stuff, most damage in a hurricane is limited.  (When Harvey hit Houston, all of my earth-science friends stayed behind despite the squeals from this board, and all but one had no damage to their homes and none regretted staying behind.)  Most hurricane landfalls don't do that much damage, which is why the ones that DO cause a lot of damage are so notable.  If Andrew had made landfall 50 miles south, most of the kids on the board would remember it as a slightly strong Bret (and it likely wouldn't have been upgraded in reanalysis).

Recall that San Juan just missed a 185mph hurricane by what, 50 miles, and there was minimal damage.  A near-miss is still a miss and even with the wide windfield of this storm, Cat 1 conditions over Miami will cause minimal damage.  There's around a 60 mile hole - the Everglades - which a hurricane can slip through on a SSE-NNW approach.  The Euro hits -exactly- that spot.  Any deviation to the east would be disastrous.  Any deviation to the west puts Naples/Fort Myers in the line of fire, and that sucks, but it's WAY better than the Dade/Broward side which has 10x the population.

Not a hurricane of the size of Irma.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

Also remember that despite folk repeatedly throwing around the 'epic' and 'biblical' and stuff, most damage in a hurricane is limited.  (When Harvey hit Houston, all of my earth-science friends stayed behind despite the squeals from this board, and all but one had no damage to their homes and none regretted staying behind.)  Most hurricane landfalls don't do that much damage, which is why the ones that DO cause a lot of damage are so notable.  If Andrew had made landfall 50 miles south, most of the kids on the board would remember it as a slightly strong Bret (and it likely wouldn't have been upgraded in reanalysis).

Recall that San Juan just missed a 185mph hurricane by what, 50 miles, and there was minimal damage.  A near-miss is still a miss and even with the wide windfield of this storm, Cat 1 conditions over Miami will cause minimal damage.  There's around a 60 mile hole - the Everglades - which a hurricane can slip through on a SSE-NNW approach.  The Euro hits -exactly- that spot.  Any deviation to the east would be disastrous.  Any deviation to the west puts Naples/Fort Myers in the line of fire, and that sucks, but it's WAY better than the Dade/Broward side which has 10x the population.

That's because Harvey didn't reach Houston as a Category 4 hurricane. You're literally making a fool of yourself.

 

[AlaskaETC]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Also remember that despite folk repeatedly throwing around the 'epic' and 'biblical' and stuff, most damage in a hurricane is limited.  (When Harvey hit Houston, all of my earth-science friends stayed behind despite the squeals from this board, and all but one had no damage to their homes and none regretted staying behind.)  Most hurricane landfalls don't do that much damage, which is why the ones that DO cause a lot of damage are so notable.  If Andrew had made landfall 50 miles south, most of the kids on the board would remember it as a slightly strong Bret (and it likely wouldn't have been upgraded in reanalysis).

Recall that San Juan just missed a 185mph hurricane by what, 50 miles, and there was minimal damage.  A near-miss is still a miss and even with the wide windfield of this storm, Cat 1 conditions over Miami will cause minimal damage.  There's around a 60 mile hole - the Everglades - which a hurricane can slip through on a SSE-NNW approach.  The Euro hits -exactly- that spot.  Any deviation to the east would be disastrous.  Any deviation to the west puts Naples/Fort Myers in the line of fire, and that sucks, but it's WAY better than the Dade/Broward side which has 10x the population.

Your posts are highly uninformed and misleading. Not sure what you are trying to achieve here but it's not doing any good.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I guess if you buy the NNW track up the spine of Florida, not sure I do. I think a NNE track after landfall is more likely.

I'm not sure I even buy it coming in that far west to be honest.  I still think this is either on or 10-20 miles off the east coast 

[lwg8tr0514]

5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Surge isn't that much of a risk in SE FL, especially in the south part of Dade.  The narrow shelf protect them and the barrier islands aren't built up densely until Key Biscayne.  I mean, yeah, you're sacrificing the Keys, but you'd trade Key West for Miami Beach or Key Biscayne every time.

 

This NJWX85 guy has never met a run that isn't historical.  As SFL landfalls go this is more or less the perfect spot to minimize damage, unless you're an alligator living SE of Everglades City or you have a $5M house in Marathon.

 I lived in So Fla for 45 years. this is a horrendous track.  Up through Homestead, Kendall, into western Broward where the eyewall hits Fort Lauderdale, Coral Springs, Oakland Park, then into Palm Beach county clips Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, West Palm, Jupiter and then up and out the coast.  Almost all 6 million residents in hurricane winds(some at 130mph+) and storm gigantic surge. Stop being contrarian and lurk for a while if you can't control yourself.

[bdgwx]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Better check your geography, Miami sits at the North end of Biscayne Bay. Southerly winds of 120kt+ are going to push all that water North and into the Downtown area. At least if the track was further East so that the winds remained Easterly, the barrier islands known as Miami Beach would mitigate a lot of the storm surge potential. 

Yep, and just about every model is suggesting that the pressure will drop (or least stay steady state) while at the same time the wind field expands. That can only mean one thing. The integrated kinetic energy of Irma will increase as it approaches LF even if the raw wind speeds decrease. One of the lessons we learned from Katrina and Sandy is that surge is very sensitive to the total integrated kinetic energy; possibly more so than with the max wind speed. See Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy.

[OSUmetstud]

The center point of the storm tracks 60 to 70 miles west of miami.  Thats most likely a miss from the eyewall itself.  This is a worse solution than a close miss east but better than the center tracking closer to miami.  Either way all these solutions are within the normal level of uncertainty with a 72 hour lead.

[LakeEffectKing]

Anyone post the 12z Ukie?

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Not a hurricane of the size of Irma.

He's comparing apples to oranges, and that might be too generous. 

Equally important as intensity is the size and angle approach. If the center tracks just West of Miami, that pushes all the water in Biscayne Bay North into the downtown area.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Also remember that despite folk repeatedly throwing around the 'epic' and 'biblical' and stuff, most damage in a hurricane is limited.  (When Harvey hit Houston, all of my earth-science friends stayed behind despite the squeals from this board, and all but one had no damage to their homes and none regretted staying behind.)  Most hurricane landfalls don't do that much damage, which is why the ones that DO cause a lot of damage are so notable.  If Andrew had made landfall 50 miles south, most of the kids on the board would remember it as a slightly strong Bret (and it likely wouldn't have been upgraded in reanalysis).

Recall that San Juan just missed a 185mph hurricane by what, 50 miles, and there was minimal damage.  A near-miss is still a miss and even with the wide windfield of this storm, Cat 1 conditions over Miami will cause minimal damage.  There's around a 60 mile hole - the Everglades - which a hurricane can slip through on a SSE-NNW approach.  The Euro hits -exactly- that spot.  Any deviation to the east would be disastrous.  Any deviation to the west puts Naples/Fort Myers in the line of fire, and that sucks, but it's WAY better than the Dade/Broward side which has 10x the population.

You just said it yourself... the wide wind field.  Not paying attention to model wind/gust products verbatim.  Given the expected wide wind field and conceptually, it would be pretty surprising if Miami only had cat 1 conditions on this track.

[Hazey]

Looks like the Turks and Caicos Islands are next up to take a thrashing. Man as far as small islands go, Irma is showing no mercy.

[bigtenfan]

Question for the experts:

 

IF the euro track verifies as is , given how large the storm is, how far from the center to the east would 120mph winds extend? 100MPH winds?

 

Thanks in advance

[Drz1111]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

That's because Harvey didn't reach Houston as a Category 4 hurricane. You're literally making a fool of yourself.

 

Contextually that's not what happened: folks insisted that everyone should flee the 'biblical' flooding.  Well, yeah, if you were in a low-lying place.  If you were in the Heights or in older housing stock that had been built on high ground, you sat at home and ate nachos and tried to keep your kids from being bored out of their skulls.

Similarly here:  its a big, bad storm, and if it hits you its going to be bad, and evacuating is prudent.  That doesn't mean that a near-miss isn't going to still be a miss.  If this landfalls in the unpopulated everglades as forecast by the Euro, it will mostly be a squib outside of the keys.  If it runs up the East or West coast where people and property are, it's a whollle different ballgame.

I only need to go back to yesterday to find the doomsday posts about PR or other near-miss islands in the northern leewards.  Hurricanes are remarkably binary and fickle in their damage.  You're either in the eyewall or you're not, and the codes in S Fl will result in minimal damage anywhere that doesn't see the eyewall*

*exception made if this keeps intensity up the spine into places with lots of trailers and below-code housing, in which case you might see a similar scenario like you had with Katrina where there was lots of inland wind damage to poor construction in poor towns.  Plenty of that in inland LF once you get north of the Everglades, though a west track helps in making the wind at Belle Glade off'shore'.

[NJwx85]

Looks like the UKMET is further North, but still scrapes Cuba, then splits the difference between the Euro and GFS

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Anyone post the 12z Ukie?

It didn't run on meteocentre for some reason.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Contextually that's not what happened: folks insisted that everyone should flee the 'biblical' flooding.  Well, yeah, if you were in a low-lying place.  If you were in the Heights or in older housing stock that had been built on high ground, you sat at home and ate nachos and tried to keep your kids from being bored out of their skulls.

Similarly here:  its a big, bad storm, and if it hits you its going to be bad, and evacuating is prudent.  That doesn't mean that a near-miss isn't going to still be a miss.  If this landfalls in the unpopulated everglades as forecast by the Euro, it will mostly be a squib outside of the keys.  If it runs up the East or West coast where people and property are, it's a whollle different ballgame.

I only need to go back to yesterday to find the doomsday posts about PR or other near-miss islands in the northern leewards.  Hurricanes are remarkably binary and fickle in their damage.  You're either in the eyewall or you're not, and the codes in S Fl will result in minimal damage anywhere that doesn't see the eyewall*

*exception made if this keeps intensity up the spine into places with lots of trailers and below-code housing, in which case you might see a similar scenario like you had with Katrina where there was lots of inland wind damage to poor construction in poor towns.  Plenty of that in inland LF once you get north of the Everglades, though a west track helps in making the wind at Belle Glade off'shore'.

OK, that is enough.  Drop this now or I will suspend you until Irma is declared a remnant low.  This is not an invitation for a debate, it is a simple statement. Drop it NOW.

[NJwx85]

12z HMON, eventually heads inland near the Florida-Georgia line on the coast.

[USCG RS]

12z HMON, eventually heads inland near the Florida-Georgia line on the coast.

872.8mb...

[donsutherland1]

With the ECMWF yet again forecasting Florida landfall, strong agreement with the GEFS for such landfall in just under 72 hours, and historical climatology favoring Florida landfall, it is reasonable to conclude that Florida landfall is likely. The exact track remains somewhat uncertain, but there is a possibility that Miami could experience some of Irma's strongest winds as the powerful storm moves northward.

As noted above, historic climatology favors Florida landfall. Since 1851, 12 major hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of Irma’s 11 am position (20.4°N 69.7°W) in August or September. 75% made U.S. landfall. Of those that made landfall, 56% made landfall in Florida. Two thirds of the landfalling storms did so as major hurricanes and 80% of those that made Florida landfall were major hurricanes.

The Florida landfalling storms from the above sample were:

Great Miami Hurricane (1926): 125 kts (145 mph)
Lake Okeechobee Hurricane (1928): 125 kts (145 mph)
Hurricane #9 (1945): 115 kts (130 mph)
Donna (1960): 125 kts (145 mph)
Frances (2004) 90 kts (105 mph)

In terms of track, the 1945 hurricane’s track to Florida landfall and shortly afterward is probably closest to the track shown on today’s 12z run of the ECMWF.

In terms of intensity, even as the some of the guidance suggests weakening over the next 24-36 hours, Irma is forecast to traverse waters that have seen hurricanes intensify and sometimes rapidly. Both the GFS (>30 mb forecast deepening) and ECMWF (approximately 15 mb deepening) suggest that Irma could strengthen again as it approaches Florida. Such an outcome would also be consistent with historic climatology. For August-September hurricanes that did not make landfall on either Cuba and/or Hispaniola, 80% retained their strength or grew more intense as they crossed the waters of the Florida Straits (50% grew stronger).  Most of those storms deepened by 10 mb-15 mb.

Taking that into consideration, it still appears likely that Irma will be a Category 4 hurricane upon Florida landfall (best guess:  120 kts – 130 kts). There is some possibility that it could make landfall as a Category 5 storm.

Florida’s strongest landfalling hurricanes:
Labor Day Hurricane (1935): 160 kts (185 mph)
Andrew (1992): 145 kts (165 mph)
Hurricane #2 (1919): 130 kts (150 mph)
Charley (2004): 130 kts (150 mph)
Hurricane #4 “Lake Okeechobee Hurricane” (1928): 125 kts (145 mph)
Hurricane #7 “Great Miami Hurricane” (1926): 125 kts (145 mph)
Donna (1960): 125 kts (145 mph)
Hurricane #8 (1948): 115 kts (130 mph)
Hurricane #4 (1947): 115 kts (130 mph)
Hurricane #9 (1945): 115 kts (130 mph)
Hurricane #2 (1949): 115 kts (130 mph)
King (1950): 115 kts (130 mph)

[Wow]

A little less due N movement after Florida on the 18z hurricane models

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HMON, eventually heads inland near the Florida-Georgia line on the coast.


 

872.8mb...

Yeah, at 6z it said that Irma should be 895mb right now. Disregard that aspect.

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

A little less due N movement after Florida on the 18z hurricane models

That says September 6.

[TellicoWx]

8 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Contextually that's not what happened: folks insisted that everyone should flee the 'biblical' flooding.  Well, yeah, if you were in a low-lying place.  If you were in the Heights or in older housing stock that had been built on high ground, you sat at home and ate nachos and tried to keep your kids from being bored out of their skulls.

Similarly here:  its a big, bad storm, and if it hits you its going to be bad, and evacuating is prudent.  That doesn't mean that a near-miss isn't going to still be a miss.  If this landfalls in the unpopulated everglades as forecast by the Euro, it will mostly be a squib outside of the keys.  If it runs up the East or West coast where people and property are, it's a whollle different ballgame.

I only need to go back to yesterday to find the doomsday posts about PR or other near-miss islands in the northern leewards.  Hurricanes are remarkably binary and fickle in their damage.  You're either in the eyewall or you're not, and the codes in S Fl will result in minimal damage anywhere that doesn't see the eyewall*

*exception made if this keeps intensity up the spine into places with lots of trailers and below-code housing, in which case you might see a similar scenario like you had with Katrina where there was lots of inland wind damage to poor construction in poor towns.  Plenty of that in inland LF once you get north of the Everglades, though a west track helps in making the wind at Belle Glade off'shore'.

I guess all my guys on the swift water team were saving imaginary people in Houston Metro....goodbye

[mfgmfg]

Are there any radar sites that cover Turks & Caicos?

[mulen]

I will try to send out videos if conditions allow my neighbors and myself are at defcon 4 folks were  battening  down the hatches . see ya

[USCG RS]

I guess all my guys on the swift water team were saving imaginary people in Houston Metro....goodbye

Ty. I refrained from answering about my colleagues in Houston.. But Ty.