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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Yeah so clearly this is not a good run (in terms of impacts) on the Euro. At hour 72 the track is right through the keys and places the higher population densities in the RFQ. The pressure drops 12mb while it's in the straight so the Euro thinks it will be intensifying up to LF.

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4 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

Do you mean the 'nuclear hurricane' nonsense or the very real concern about the Turkey Point plant? And if the latter, should that be in banter or the evac thread? Thanks.

Stuff like nuking hurricanes (or nuclear hurricane) definitely goes in the banter thread. As far as TP plant...it can be either the banter or the evac. Just leave it out of this one, thanks. 

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Apacoliptic euro run. 

Another thing to remember from Katrina is the huge dome of water that's already moving with the core. So even if we do see this weaken down to cat 4. (I think that happens before another burst back to 5 before landfall) there is a cat 5 surge with this thing aimed at MIA. That and wave run up which caused most of the damage during sandy will mitigate the lack of shelf.

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5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

take the middle between and GFS and S.FL is in bad shape. This is going to be an epic disaster with long term social/economic implications for the area.

Certainly the worst fears are possible. I don't envy emergency management officials, the nhc, nws, or anyone who has to make a life or death decision to leave. It's crazy that the models are overall not that far apart but such small differences are so HUGE when it comes to impact and where. And It's scary to think about but we all know there are going to be a lot of people who stay behind and don't evac.

The euro is scary indeed but even the more east models show no room for error in se florida if you are hoping the eastern eyewall doesn't come ashore. 

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Still some time to go, but given the model clustering, it's becoming increasingly difficult to envision a way out for Florida.  And with this 12z Euro run, it's at the point where even a slight eastward adjustment would do nothing good for the eastern part of the state.  

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2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Not a trend. It has been bouncing 50-75 miles between runs. Regardless....all the latest runs across the models are putting Miami in a very bad spot

Disagree -- GFS went west. HWRF -- west. GEFS -- west. Euro -- West. Want to take "never makes Florida landfall" and I take the other side for a cold beer?

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4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

At this point west trends help mitigate damage - far lower population densities on FL Gulf Coast.

No, this run puts Miami in the RFQ along with FLL and PBI because the winds are out of the South and the mean motion is to the North, so that verbatim the greater Miami area would experience the highest possible winds. If Irma tracks a bit further West, you're still keeping Southeast Florida in the strongest quadrant, and now you're putting places like Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota in play that otherwise wouldn't be.

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7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

take the middle between Euro and GFS and S.FL is in bad shape. This is going to be an epic disaster with long term social/economic implications for the area.

Also worrisome is the short term impacts. Can't help but think of the few days after Andrew when there was basically little law enforcement in certain areas, lack of water, etc. and a degree of lawlessness and a breakdown in civil order. I would NOT want to be in some devastated area and have to deal with THAT, let alone the long term implications.

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The fact that we have the ECMWF and the GFS [and for that matter, the cmc] 72 hour forecasts projecting the eye of this likely cat4 (or worse) monster passing within 100 miles of downtown Miami is tbh completely terrifying. I haven't been on this board long, but I've been tracking TCs as a hobby since I was a kid (spurred by Andrew), and the nightmare scenario of cat4-5 aiming at south florida within 72 hours is now real.  

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