Somesand Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: GOES-16 is actually providing 30-second imagery of Irma. Even better. I just started looking at it this morning. Much better than GOES-13! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Mercy...So could it get beyond the 185 mph sustained winds it had yesterday? Not clear, it could have lower central pressure and a wider expanse of Cat 5 winds or a higher wind max in the eyewall, time will tell which of these eventualities plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Pronounced secondary eyewall on that last pass. Solid cat 2-3 winds in that wind max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Bluescat1 said: Hurricane warning for Jose to hit Northern Leewards as a major hurricane. Hurricane watch, not warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, toller65 said: IN terms of structural stability, perhaps. But don't forget the potential devastating impacts of a 15-foot storm surge on a Florida coastline that is predominantly < 10 feet above MSL up to a mile inland.... If you look at the regional SLOSH models, you'll see that surge isn't the primary concern for mainland Miami and suburbs. The nearby continental shelf and deepwater give the water pushed around by Irma somewhere to go. The biggest concern for surge will be on the barrier islands and along the Miami River. This will primarily be a wind event for Miami proper. The Georgia/SC Lowcountry is much more vulnerable to the water pushed around by a 3-day Cat 5 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Its been steady state for awhile now. There nothing at the moment to suggest its strengthening. Its 150 kt cat 5 already its basically near the top limit of strength... 14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: There is no evidence to suggest that it is strengthening at this point, so disregard that user's post. Question for you guys. With those intense cloud tops expanding and exploding around the western and northwestern portion of the eyewall, wouldn't that be a signification that it is showing signs of wanting to strengthen again? I am assuming whatever shear it experienced earlier has relaxed, along with the bath water it is about to encounter, some strengthening is definitely possible correct? Or am I completely off here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Miami-Dade has a huge number of structures built before those building codes were in place. There's a lot of apartment complexes that are practically falling apart, especially in low-income areas. Not to mention all the high-rises. The skyline today is nothing like it was in 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said: If you look at the regional SLOSH models, you'll see that surge isn't the primary concern for mainland Miami and suburbs. The nearby continental shelf and deepwater give the water pushed around by Irma somewhere to go. The biggest concern for surge will be on the barrier islands and along the Miami River. This will primarily be a wind event for Miami proper. The Georgia/SC Lowcountry is much more vulnerable to the water pushed around by a 3-day Cat 5 storm. Water is absolutely a concern for MIA. The city floods with a few inches of rain, and Irma will inundate the area, and surge will also be a factor. Peeps should refer to NHC and local forecast office discussions and public statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Yeah, and if Miami gets the RFQ the rest of the extended metro area through PBI seems to as well. The nhc and euro tracks have been on or very close to tracking right through the highest population density. 2010 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Question for you guys. With those intense cloud tops expanding and exploding around the western and northwestern portion of the eyewall, wouldn't that be a signification that it is showing signs of wanting to strengthen again? I am assuming whatever shear it experienced earlier has relaxed, along with the bath water it is about to encounter, some strengthening is definitely possible correct? Or am I completely off here? The expansion looks somewhat minimal to me. There hasn't been a substantive enough change in the IR appearance since this morning to suggest strengthening. If anything, cloud tops have warmed slightly. Anyway, lets wait for the next recon pass or major changes to make the "strengthening" or "weakening" calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 cooling cloud tops at the time of the usual diurnal minimum are indicative of intensification, at least historically in every other Atl hurricane that has exhibited the same behavior...it's possible she's steady state, though at her current intensity I suppose it doesn't much matter sensible weather-wise...there's sufficient of recon to verify any structural changes, so I'll delete those intensification posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 With the slight shift West on the 12z HWRF, it's now close to the worse case scenario. It's a tick West of the 12z GFS. Outstanding consensus now for a track from Miami-Dade to Palm Beach County and then offshore somewhere around Palm Bay or Melbourne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Not sure if it was mentioned earlier in this long thread, but 12z GGEM also has the track inland over s.e. FL and the 12z Sunday position is roughly 25 miles west of MIA. From there it slowly emerges back over Atlantic near Cape Canaveral and makes a Monday landfall in western SC. The intensity depictions are clearly too conservative, from the upper component and past experience with GGEM, would estimate high end cat-4 landfall in s.e. FL, cat-2 east of JAX minimal cat-3 before cat-2 landfall in w SC. The Euro-GGEM similarity is not a good sign for Florida. THAT is worst case- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Our worst fears have come true, CNN is now reporting that Irma has gone nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Here is the latest mimic image from CIMSS. You can still clearly see the concentric eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said: If you look at the regional SLOSH models, you'll see that surge isn't the primary concern for mainland Miami and suburbs. The nearby continental shelf and deepwater give the water pushed around by Irma somewhere to go. The biggest concern for surge will be on the barrier islands and along the Miami River. This will primarily be a wind event for Miami proper. The Georgia/SC Lowcountry is much more vulnerable to the water pushed around by a 3-day Cat 5 storm. Agreed on the more considerable impact to GA/SC lowcountry, no question My point was that even though the building codes along So. Fla coast line are quite protective, there are other dangers from this storm that should not be ignored - with a ground surface elevation of 3-5 feet above mean sea level in greater Miami and a potential storm surge of 15-20 feet, one needs to be cognizant of the strong potential for storm surge flooding, because a surge of that nature will get into the city regardless of your shelf configuration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Water is absolutely a concern for MIA. The city floods with a few inches of rain, and Irma will inundate the area, and surge will also be a factor. Peeps should refer to NHC and local forecast office discussions and public statements. Yes, there are numerous concerns with Irma, but the storm surge causing widespread coastal flooding will be the number one concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, sielicki said: Our worst fears have come true, CNN is now reporting that Irma has gone nuclear. Wait a second... are you telling me that this sucker is nuclear?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, sielicki said: Our worst fears have come true, CNN is now reporting that Irma has gone nuclear. CNN is clearly not reporting that themselves. Did you miss the part where the mayor said it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Wait a second... are you telling me that this sucker is nuclear?! It will be once it goes over Turkey Point Nuclear Station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: It will be once it goes over Turkey Point Nuclear Station It survived a direct hit by Andrew so I would think it could handle this. The only way this goes nuclear is if North Korea decides to get involved with it. I understand the mayor's urgency but really? Nuclear? Not the best word choice IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, toller65 said: Agreed on the more considerable impact to GA/SC lowcountry, no question My point was that even though the building codes along So. Fla coast line are quite protective, there are other dangers from this storm that should not be ignored - with a ground surface elevation of 3-5 feet above mean sea level in greater Miami and a potential storm surge of 15-20 feet, one needs to be cognizant of the strong potential for storm surge flooding, because a surge of that nature will get into the city regardless of your shelf configuration I agree flooding will be a concern, but it will be of a storm drain backing up variety, not the wall of water variety normally associated with storm surge. The big danger will come from being trapped with rising water while sustained winds are around 120 mph, and no chance of rescue for at least 12-18 hours. Edit - wanted to add that storm surge will be an enormous problem south of Miami proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Not to change the subject but isn't the 12 Euro coming out now? Anyone have early access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Michigander said: Not to change the subject but isn't the 12 Euro coming out now? Anyone have early access? Starts shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Michigander said: Not to change the subject but isn't the 12 Euro coming out now? Anyone have early access? i've found instantweathermaps to be the fastest free site. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2017090712®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=000 not the greatest map quality, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, sojitodd said: It survived a direct hit by Andrew so I would think it could handle this. The only way this goes nuclear is if North Korea decides to get involved with it. I understand the mayor's urgency but really? Nuclear? Not the best word choice IMO. Surge has the potential to be much worse than Andrew. Have you read how vulnerable Turkey Creek is to a major hurricane? It's been an elephant in the room for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: CNN is clearly not reporting that themselves. Did you miss the part where the mayor said it? Yes, but CNN ... in their continuing need to sensationalize without care ... is reporting it and making a big deal out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 You'll have to pardon me if this was already posted. Sometimes it's hard to follow along with the banter. Anyway, here is the 12Z GEFS mean at 72 hours right at landfall. Now that we're getting to the D3 lead times we can probably start fine turning the track. There's still below average confidence in the track due to the timing of the turn, but obviously the GEFS track is...umm...not the most desirable for Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Wow said: Wait a second... are you telling me that this sucker is nuclear?! The mayor has been watching the SyFy channel again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jasons said: Surge has the potential to be much worse than Andrew. Have you read how vulnerable Turkey Creek is to a major hurricane? It's been an elephant in the room for a long time. Ding! Also, Andrew wasn't a Cat 5 for a week before landfall moving across the Caribbean coming in from a south/south eastern angle. That surge has had plenty of time to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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