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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested, here's a crude plot of Irma's forecast path (NHC's 11 am advisory) through a box where the Labor Day Hurricane (1935) and Andrew (1992) rapidly intensified and then maintained their peak intensity. What's relevant is Irma's path over water. The portion of land enclosed in the box should be excluded, as this was a quick sketch for purposes of illustration, only.

AndrewLaborDayHurricane.jpg

Yep, the Florida Current goes east through the Florida Straits, then turns north between Miami and the Bahamas. Lots of hot water, with no appreciable surface cooling. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again....GFS is not the worst case scenario.

Peeiod.

Completely agree.  Miami would "miss out" on the truly cataclysmic storm surge if the eyewall stayed offshore.  Don't get me wrong, it would still be bad, but you wouldn't have the nightmare scenario that the Euro has.

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4 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close.  It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore.

Yes.

Heavy a situation be horrific, yet not a worst case are not mutually exclusive.

Track the eye bodily over the southern peninsula, WEST of Miami....that would be more devastating.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly.

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It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close.  It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore.

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6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Wondering the current state of the concentric eyewalls that were seen on microwave this morning. As LEK said, if they remain far enough apart they can remain stable, but I'm interested to see how that structure has evolved.

Still there on recon. Last pass had double wing maxima at flight level.  Heading inbound for another pass now.

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Not sure if it was mentioned earlier in this long thread, but 12z GGEM also has the track inland over s.e. FL and the 12z Sunday position is roughly 25 miles west of MIA. From there it slowly emerges back over Atlantic near Cape Canaveral and makes a Monday landfall in western SC. The intensity depictions are clearly too conservative, from the upper component and past experience with GGEM, would estimate high end cat-4 landfall in s.e. FL, cat-2 east of JAX minimal cat-3 before cat-2 landfall in w SC. 

The Euro-GGEM similarity is not a good sign for Florida. 

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1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close.  It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore.

 The Euro track would be horrible. Even the best-constructed buildings could suffer varying degrees of damage.

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Just now, JasonOH said:

Still there on recon. Last pass had double wing maxima at flight level.  Heading inbound for another pass now.

As expansive as this wind field is in the process of becoming, it will become impossible not to see multiple maxima on most of the recons from here on out I am surmising

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Exactly. Miami is far more prepared for a Cat 4/5 than areas farther north. 

IN terms of structural stability, perhaps.  But don't forget the potential devastating impacts of a 15-foot storm surge on a Florida coastline that is predominantly < 10 feet above MSL up to a mile inland....

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Has the winds been equal or close on all sides of the eye wall so far during recon? Also, wouldn't it depend on how close east or west the eye wall actually was....a dead center strike would atleast allow the structures some stress relief due to being in the eye, where being just to the east or west there would be no relief.

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Normally we say all the time don't focus on the exact path of the storm because the effects are going to be felt far away from the center. Irma takes this statement to a new meaning. Roughly a 100x100 mile radius of hurricane force winds centered around the eye with a 20 nautical mile wide EF-3 tornado around the eye itself.

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