skierinvermont Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Actually I think there is a 149kt SFMR reading. Does NHC use 10 sec or 30 sec FL winds for intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 she expands in areal coverage because she's entering the mid latitudes and because she gets nicely ventilated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Jfreebird said: So does this storm get bigger because it gets weaker? or is it pulling more moisture from somewhere? Well, the windfield does expand significantly on the models... But it also starts interacting with the trough which will greatly expand cloud coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: There's a lot more to it than water temps. Oh no doubt but I just think we're in uncharted territory when it comes to these storms. We've never seen what hurricanes can do in water this warm. These storms are becoming freight trains going at full speed with no brakes to slow them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polka1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said: Irma on IR sat looking the healthiest she has all morning, cooling cloud tops, an expanding CDO, less restricted outflow to the NW and a nice warm eye Not seeing any of the eye wall issues of earlier either. If it completed it's strange EWC then it could be interesting to watch over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The expanse of 100+kt winds on the north side of Irma (per latest recon) is something we've, or at least I, have never really seen before... wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12z GFS is about as bleak a forecast for the SE you want to see imho. Western eyewall onshore from Mia to Palm Beach while eye remains over water then landfall as potent cane farther N near GA/SC. Really hope this track doesnt verify. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Its not a worst case...that would be for MIA to get the RFQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: The expanse of 100+kt winds on the north side of Irma (per latest recon) is something we've, or at least I, have never really seen before... wowzers. Scary to see where she might be later on or during the overnight time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not a worst case...that would be for MIA to get the RFQ. Is not Miami more prepared for Hurricanes then Georgia/Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4waresnowcone Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Still moving @ ~14 kts or has it sped up/slowed down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 For example, that area of 100+kt winds is nearly one-degree longitude wide, which is roughly 69 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I believe Irma will be back down to 915 MB by 5pm NHC update, no discernible brakes on her intensification this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, CarbondaleWX said: Oh no doubt but I just think we're in uncharted territory when it comes to these storms. We've never seen what hurricanes can do in water this warm. These storms are becoming freight trains going at full speed with no brakes to slow them down. Tropical cyclones routinely develop in water this warm. Especially in the West Pac. It's very well-modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Is not Miami more prepared for Hurricanes then Georgia/Carolinas? Here are some building codes with regards to wind for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, 4waresnowcone said: Still moving @ ~14 kts or has it sped up/slowed down? It has been fairly status quo regarding the speed of the Cane. I know at times its been around 15-16. So really in the grand scheme it is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not a worst case...that would be for MIA to get the RFQ. Yeah, and if Miami gets the RFQ the rest of the extended metro area through PBI seems to as well. The nhc and euro tracks have been on or very close to tracking right through the highest population density. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Recon measuring FL winds of nearly 100kts (SFMR is only TS force though) ~85-90 miles from the eye. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 So to partially answer my own question regarding a Jose and Irma fujiwhara dance, a quick search revealed that the ideal maximum distance between the two storms would be 600-900 miles. So if this is accurate, wont these storms be close enough for interaction before Irma gets onshore in the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Its not a worst case...that would be for MIA to get the RFQ.6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is evacuation related, but also meteorological. We're ironically going to evacuate from coastal Pinellas and drive about 40-50 miles east CLOSER to the track of the storm. I wouldn't be surprised if I see higher winds where I'm evacuating! I bet a good number of people would head inland farther toward Orlando since there's a billion hotels there. It seems counterintuitive to drive into the storm, but that's what we're looking at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Recon measuring FL winds of nearly 100kts (SFMR is only TS force though) over 90 miles from the eye. That's impressive. Was looking it up and FL is 160 miles wide at its widest point - http://www.netstate.com/states/geography/fl_geography.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I made a post and deleted it saying the same thing. All scenarios modeled right now really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 And that census map is 17 years old, even more dense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Again....GFS is not the worst case scenario. Peeiod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 As soon as Irma gets to the Turks and Caicos, she will enter an extended area of 30C+ SSTs. Watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 So to partially answer my own question regarding a Jose and Irma fujiwhara dance, a quick search revealed that the ideal maximum distance between the two storms would be 600-900 miles. So if this is accurate, wont these storms be close enough for interaction before Irma gets onshore in the Carolinas?That and favorable distance interaction theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 hot towers going up, fun to watch the evolution but hoping a FL landfall is somehow avoided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk It's going to suck to see the devastation wherever GA/SC landfall ends up and it's going to be horribly impactful on people there, but the in scope populations and economic base are not even close. It's a much worse scenario for MIA to have the Euro track than something close offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 of 1 half dozen of the other. Your scenario yields a weaker LF in GA/SC probably a Cat 1 or 2. The GFS scenario has western eyewall devastation from miami to palm beach without weaking Irma 'much' and LF in GA/SC as a potent Cat 4. Both are horrible scenarios quite honestly. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL (MSA) is one of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in United States. . Its 2015 population of 6,012,331 ranked 8th in the United States. Savannah Metro population 384,024 Charleston Metro The OMB defines the area as comprising Berkeley, Charleston and Dorchester counties, an area with 664,607 in the 2010 census SE FL is significantly more populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: As soon as Irma gets to the Turks and Caicos, she will enter an extended area of 30C+ SSTs. Watch out. Kind of worried to see what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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