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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I would take bastardi with a grain of salt. 

 

First off, there is very little precedent for a hurricane strengthening to sub 900 in the Atlantic basin. It has only happened once in this position with the Labor Day storm.

 

Two, bastardi is a known overhyper.


Yep.  Everything in there might be what he "wants" to happen, but probably not what will actually happen...

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3 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

NAM is gonna NAM...it struggles with TCs...I wouldn't get too hung up on the NAM at this point.  It's solutions will trend toward the Euro and/or GFS with time.  

Yeah, wouldn't even look at it, I remember a couple years ago it had Hurricane Joaquin hitting the USA 12 hours prior to the event when every single other model had figured out it was going OTS. It is not worth looking at IMO.

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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.
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15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I would take bastardi with a grain of salt. 

 

First off, there is very little precedent for a hurricane strengthening to sub 900 in the Atlantic basin. It has only happened once in this position with the Labor Day storm.

 

Two, bastardi is a known overhyper.

 

edit: obviously it could happen, but I tend to "wait and see" on a scenario that extreme.

The thing about strengthening close to S FL is that the Florida Current comes out of the Florida Strait, deep and full of hot water from the GOM. Since it is a current, Irma could stop all forward motion, and the current would continue delivering hot water to the storm. The FLorida Current, IMHO, is why '35 and Andrew spun up to Cat 5 before landfall. 

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

~2500' feet up. Some of the taller buildings in Miami are around 700'.

59b15c35025af.png

925mb isn't a finite level of height, same with any other pressure level. If the surface pressure of the storm at center location is less than 925mb than the 925 mb level intersects the ground just outside of center.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

925mb isn't a finite level of height, same with any other pressure level. If the surface pressure of the storm at center location is less than 925mb than the 925 mb level intersects the ground just outside of center.

Thanks, so in other words if Irma is sub 925mb then what's listed as 925mb is actually the surface? Learn something new everyday. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Thanks for the explanation. I'm guessing that the deeper the system gets under 925mb, the more forecasted 925mb winds that are brought down to the surface. 

Yes as the area would be larger, we are still talking about very small areas here though.

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4 minutes ago, Rickg2 said:

IIRC Andrew strengthened over the everglades. Does anyone else remember seeing that? Andrew was upgraded to a cat 5 after reevaluation. 

Also my family survived Andrew in Homestead. I  remember seeing the pictures of the devastation . Incredible. 

 

Here's the paper that was the basis for Andrew's reclassification: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/04landsea.pdf

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Irma will be experiencing her diurnal max tonight at about the same time that she is at her furthest point from land between Haiti and Cuba, this is also prior to when any significant shear is forecast to begin impacting her circulation and well into the rocket fuel-esque TCHP region...for all of these reasons, tonight's intensity trend should be a pretty good indicator of her potential to max out below 900mb, in other words, she should start intensifying on her way to record low pressure this evening if she's going to break records later in the Florida straits

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Guidance is really hammering the idea of strengthening in the Florida straits while at the same time Irma will be getting larger. 

Yes winds may lower but the overall storm will get more powerful with devastating storm surge potential. 

One of my concerns has been that we are just coming out of a full moon so the tides will be astronomically high as it is.

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