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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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44 minutes ago, Quincy said:

 

Floyd did, but it was also at least a couple hundred miles farther north and the upper level pattern isn't terribly similar. (Although if you shift Floyd's track W/SW, you'd probably see a similar curve with Irma)

Floyd hit NC causing extensive destruction... iirc, at the time it was the largest peacetime evacuation ever ordered (FL, southeast, etc.). More or less paralleled the coast, came onshore as a slightly weaker storm near Oak Island, NC, and proceeded northward, causing extensive flooding in NC all the way up to NY.

If Floyd flirted with Florida before heading north, then Irma is all-out seducing her.

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I really want to be within the 72 to 48 hour timeframes before I even start to get comfortable with the major model players concerning South Florida. Even with Gulf Stream flight data, balloons, etc., the geography of peninsula, shape of coastline and the sharp turn at play is just within too great an error. Two days out and we may still be struggling with southern peninsula landfall. This remains on the extremes of forecasting. We may have horror stories from evacuations and deal with regret, but we'll deal with that later. If I resided in southern Florida, I would have evacuated if told to do so, no regrets. Too much uncertainty and too great a risk.

 

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I’ve got friends in FL, not near Miami thank god more closer to Daytona somewhat inland but this forecast is crucial.  Isn’t the Euro basically the best at this range?  Should we be favoring the Euro over the GFS and other models at this point?  What are the differences that are causing this 50-75 mile difference in track?

Got to decide whether they need to go or can hunker down and wait it out...

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11 minutes ago, sirkan said:

I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here.  Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc..   Please???  AND Thank you!!!   I must be misunderstanding something??

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