TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Didn't Hurricane Floyd have this problem? Evacs were made all over the SE and Floyd stayed just offshore enough not to cause huge problems? Or am I remembering that incorrectly? Yeah I think that was true with Floyd and likely other canes at smaller scales. There's always the implicit risk in putting the masses on the road, because people can die in that process, and of course the cry wolf syndrome sets in if there's no impact. Seems like it's going to be a big test of model skill within the 72 hour window coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 21 hours ago, jojo762 said: 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Didn't Hurricane Floyd have this problem? Evacs were made all over the SE and Floyd stayed just offshore enough not to cause huge problems? Or am I remembering that incorrectly? Floyd did, but it was also at least a couple hundred miles farther north and the upper level pattern isn't terribly similar. (Although if you shift Floyd's track W/SW, you'd probably see a similar curve with Irma) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Storm located south of all the 0z guidance very close to NHC track. got the tracks in google earth from http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.kml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: Storm located south of all the 0z guidance very close to NHC track. got the tracks in google earth from http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.kml The eye track is going to wobble a bit. Longer term trends are more important, unless we start to see an unexpected, sharp deviation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Is it me or did 0z GFS op make second landfall further north in SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Biggest difference that I see biggest is the trough in the Northeast the GFS does not have it retreating as fast thus pulling Irma further North. Looks like that could be the key player in what ultimately happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, ice1972 said: Is it me or did 0z GFS op make second landfall further north in SC? Um yes it did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It this misses FL, which is very possible, I think the landfall in the Carolinas may be pretty manageable, albeit still major. I do not buy this maintaing cat 4 or 5 intensity that far up given the deteriorating upper envt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The models continue to focus more and more on the 500mb cutoff over new England I mentioned last night. Definitely a trend towards a SC/NC landfall. Favors the weak upper low/trough over the southeast. This is causing Irma to pull north towards the trough and then curve NNW at the end towards the coastline after it is left behind. It is left to move around the weak ULL disturbance. Exactly. It’s trending slower causing more interaction with Irma thus a quicker N pull. Here’s the past 4 GFS runs. Now here are 3 runs of the NAM showing a similar trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara Yes... but its track looks weird... it visits C Cuba at 72... then moves N at 96 to NE at 120 across S FL from the GOM side to the ATL side... then moves back N to hit SC at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like some dry air and sheer for Irma when she gets to Florida.http://i.imgur.com/6dynUpe.gifv The upper ridge and 250 mb pattern is modeled to follow Irma near to Florida. The transition occurs as Irma begins a more northerly motion. Shear will eventually be an issue as southerly mid level flow around the mid-to-upper trough/cutoff to Irma's west strengthens. But when does that become significant enough to induce significant weakening? Irma will be increasing its forward speed NNW or N as well. Poleward outflow is on steriods at the 250-200 mb level. Irma may even be able to reintensify after a first potential landfall in southern Florida (if that occurs) if it moves over the Gulf Stream towards the Southeast coast. Some dry continental air may get forced into the system. But that being substantial enough before a second landfall is in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 DT (WxRisk) on Irma https://www.wxrisk.com/florida-se-georgia-or-south-carolina-or-all-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is still visiting Castro and Guevara That could be a precursor that the Euro may hold serve or move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: That could be a precursor that the Euro may hold serve or move west. Doubt it tonight... 00z UKIE's track for Irma is just silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) on Irma https://www.wxrisk.com/florida-se-georgia-or-south-carolina-or-all-3/ Just remember this post was written and posted before the new GFS ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Doubt it tonight... its track for Irma is just silly The takeaway should be to absolutely not shut the door on a farther west solution than the GFS, but people should already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That could be a precursor that the Euro may hold serve or move west. We are roughly 72-78 hours out for the south Florida coast. So probably on the last 2-3 model cycles where I may trust the globals over the hurricane models. Once inside 48 it's pretty much the Euro or the hurricane models so if I lived in south Florida and the Euro doesn't stay or come west tonight I'm starting to feel better but probably need to sweat another 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 https://twitter.com/ChrisDeVitoWX/status/905491591359496195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Z-Cast said: https://twitter.com/ChrisDeVitoWX/status/905491591359496195 That was from yesterday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danny007 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The eye looks to be increasing in size per radar https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=jua&product=N0Z&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Jason WX said: Updated. Doesn't have tonights GFS run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 0z GEFS mean low track is west of the operational. Mean low near S SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle Those 6 or so eastern ones have to be out to lunch. Hard to imagine all the other guidance would be missing that sharp of an early turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle Most of the members are east of Miami, which I think verifies. Going to be tight, but I think Miami avoids catastrophe. Carolinas probably deal with a strong cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 0z GEFS mean low track is west of the operational. Mean low near S SC Really? It looked like most were east...I stand corrected, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those 6 or so eastern ones have to be out to lunch. Hard to imagine all the other guidance would be missing that sharp of an early turn Its the NE trough leaning back juuust enough to overcome the wave break. Possible.. lets see ehat the Euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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