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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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A good thing for everyone to remember is the GFS has been shifting east and west every other run for the past two days, and that's to be expected, consistency probably won't be achieved for another day or two of runs. However if the Euro is around the same mark and not jumping around tonight again too, I'll be surprised. 

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The models continue to focus more and more on the 500mb cutoff over new England I mentioned last night. Definitely a trend towards a SC/NC landfall.

Favors the weak upper low/trough over the southeast. This is causing Irma to pull north towards the trough and then curve NNW at the end towards the coastline after it is left behind. It is left to move around the weak ULL disturbance.

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Will be interesting to see what weight NHC gives the GFS after this evening's Euro, and any tweaks to the track and cone.  It's a really bad dilemma for emergency mgmt and local govts from basically NC down around Florida up to at least Tampa.  Roads already jammed in much of Florida, and not being able to declare evacs with enough notice or confidence in other places is every official's nightmare.  Prob be a lot of better safe than sorry decisions made over the next few days.

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Just now, TPAwx said:

Will be interesting to see what weight NHC gives the GFS after this evening's Euro, and any tweaks to the track and cone.  It's a really bad dilemma for emergency mgmt and local govts from basically NC down around Florida up to at least Tampa.  Roads already jammed in much of Florida, and not being able to declare evacs with enough notice or confidence in other places is every official's nightmare.  Prob be a lot of better safe than sorry decisions made over the next few days.

Didn't Hurricane Floyd have this problem?  Evacs were made all over the SE and Floyd stayed just offshore enough not to cause huge problems?  Or am I remembering that incorrectly?

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