LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 For the love of God....there has not been and there is no indication of an ERC. As long as the outer eyewall attaches occasionally to the IEW (transporting angular momentum inward), you will not see the IEW contract. Concentric eyewalls can be very stable, as long as they remain far enough apart, as to not rob the IEW of surface "energy"....as a matter of fact, if the IEW remains very stout...an outer eyewall will struggle to "take over"...that's where we are at now... I'm drafting up my thoughts/track map....I'll post in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 95% of St Martin inhabitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 The ERC may have been disrupted due to some land interaction thanks to the close pass to PR. With that being said, it still has 3 more days over very warm water with nearly optimal atmospheric conditions to work with. All guidance shows Irma strengthening in the Southern Bahamas, so current intensity is irrelevant now that we temporarily don't have any threats to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: No I don't think so, I think the longest was a hurricane that hit Cuba in the 30s and it was a Cat 5 for 3 or 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: lots of people are befuddled. we just dont have much data on storms like this. haiyan did weird ERC stuff too... Similar to the often erratic, stubborn, and mind-boggling behavior toward what "appears" to be the end of the life-cycle of violent tornadoes... Just not a lot known about how ERCs work exactly, especially in intense hurricanes that tend to act quite stubborn to outside influences and have rather solid/steady inner-core dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: For the love of God....there has been and there is no indication of an ERC. As long as the outer eyewall attaches occasionally to the IEW (transporting angular momentum inward), you will not see the IEW contract. Concentric eyewalls can be very stable, as long as they remain far enough apart, as to not rob the IEW of surface "energy"....as a matter of fact, if the IEW remains very stout...an outer eyewall will struggle to "take over"...that's where we are at now... I'm drafting up my thoughts/track map....I'll post in a bit. Everyone loves buzz words, they throw them around when they don't know anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 95% of St Martin inhabitable uninhabitable like inflammable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Why are they keeping it at 185 mph? Nothing recently supports it. No dropsonde or SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Everyone loves buzz words, they throw them around when they don't know anything. See: annular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: For the love of God....there has not been and there is no indication of an ERC. As long as the outer eyewall attaches occasionally to the IEW (transporting angular momentum inward), you will not see the IEW contract. Concentric eyewalls can be very stable, as long as they remain far enough apart, as to not rob the IEW of surface "energy"....as a matter of fact, if the IEW remains very stout...an outer eyewall will struggle to "take over"...that's where we are at now... I'm drafting up my thoughts/track map....I'll post in a bit. Why is half of the inner core gone on radar? TWC, Brad Panovich, and the Hurricane Hunters are saying it's a ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ncskywarn said: Oops, yeah I made a mistake. Allen holds the record for above cat 5 winds. Irma passed Allen at longest time period of winds over 185mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: uninhabitable like inflammable oops. yes multitasking with conference call going on at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Morris said: Why are they keeping it at 185 mph? Nothing recently supports it. No dropsonde or SFMR. My guess is with what I've seen so far they'll go with 170 at 11, give or take. Up until this last pass though the entire storm hadn't been sampled in some time. So, they didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Why is half of the inner core gone on radar? TWC, Brad Panovich, and the Hurricane Hunters are saying it's a ERC. mets disagreeing...nothing new here. we are clueless, this is all theoretical. we have never ever had data like this to even interpret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Why are they keeping it at 185 mph? Nothing recently supports it. No dropsonde or SFMR. FL winds at 163kt... They probably are holding the same belief that the max winds just aren't being sampled by recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 95% of St Martin inhabitable News source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 #barbudo https://twitter.com/AlbertoRT51/status/905608260010606593 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Why is half of the inner core gone on radar? TWC, Brad Panovich, and the Hurricane Hunters are saying it's a ERC. You can clearly see the OEW is "connecting" occasionally to the IEW....this ENHANCES the strength of the IEW....when the connection happens, you often will see a slight deterioration of part of the IEW. I bet in a bit, you see one large eyewall....not necessarily an EWRC...more of an EW "enhancement" cycle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I hate information disseminated via FaceBook, but this appears to be an official St Martin source and they have a ton of photos in an album. https://www.facebook.com/stmartinnewsnetwork/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 95% of St Martin inhabitable 2 of my friends live on that island, haven't heard from them since the storm started. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hail indicators keep popping up in the IEW. I love it. Eye wall looking pretty menacing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Best set of pictures out of St. Barths. That post I shared above, fortunately (and to my shame) was FAKE NEWS. In the preview below you can see the hotel is still standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otown Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mfgmfg said: News source? https://twitter.com/reenaninan/status/905595136264073221 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: You can clearly see the OEW is "connecting" occasionally to the IEW....this ENHANCES the strength of the IEW....when the connection happens, you often will see a slight deterioration of part of the IEW. I bet in a bit, you see one large eyewall....not necessarily an EWRC...more of an EW "enhancement" cycle... Yes, and this is what happened with Harvey prior to landfall IMO With Harvey, the outer eyewall assume dominance and the inner eyewall degraded slowly prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: 2 of my friends live on that island, haven't heard from them since the storm started. =/ I hope they're ok and that you will hear from them once communication is restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Apologies for jumping in with such a busy thread but at this point, an ERC failure would be a good thing for the US or bad? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk As just noted by another poster, an ERC is typically complete within a 24 hour period, and is usually followed by restrengthening if conditions allow. Thus, it's currently so far away, it's highly likely there will be a minimum of at least one more ERC prior to reaching the USA. Although ERC's can help moderate intensity somewhat, in the aforementioned short term, it also helps expand the hurricane force wind field. In cases such as Matthew and a potential track just offshore of the Fl Peninsula, an ERC can actually be the difference between a hit by the W eyewall and a near miss. Moreover, a larger hurricane could be more devastating than a somewhat smaller, yet slightly more intense one; relative to MSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, mfgmfg said: News source? AFP quotes Guadeloupe prefect Eric Maire who says 65-70% homes destroyed. Six confirmed deaths bitnthey expect many more. The airport is going to need to be rebuilt too apparently. https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irma-kills-six-caribbean-island-st-martin-235333198.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mfgmfg said: News source? https://twitter.com/AlbertoRT51/status/905605881156567040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: Maybe JB should look at the Euro verification for Irma so far vs. Matthew. He's right about GFS being NE, but way off on Euro too far W. It maybe the most accurate but even at 4 days is showing difference of about 100 mile and in this case 100 mile either way will have giant implications on exact land fall locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 As just noted by another poster, an ERC is typically complete within a 24 hour period, and is usually followed by restrengthening if conditions allow. Thus, it's currently so far away, it's highly likely there will be a minimum of at least one more ERC prior to reaching the USA. Although ERC's can help moderate intensity somewhat, in the aforementioned short term, it also helps expand the hurricane force wind field. In cases such as Matthew and a potential track just offshore of the Fl Peninsula, an ERC can actually be the difference between a hit by the W eyewall and a near miss. Moreover, a larger hurricane could be more devastating than a somewhat smaller, yet slightly more intense one; relative to MSW. Understood. Thank you to you and the other person who answered (so much going on in lucky I didn't miss either!).Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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