Major Hurricane Irma

[JC-CT]

Right Front Quadrant, the side with the forward momentum associated with it as it hits land.

Haha thanks. Knew it had to be something simple.

[Neblizzard]

8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi

 

Euro was too far west on Matthew, GFS known bias likely too far east. Landfall between the 2 as 5, 2cnd landfall 4. no changes from am idea

 

 

So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that.  I do agree with his landfall though.

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that.  I do agree with his landfall though.

That looks terrible, can't be JB. 

[Tatamy]

Interesting appearance on the latest radar loop from San Juan.  You can clearly see the mesovortice rotating around the edge of the eyewall in a counter-clockwise manner.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that.  I do agree with his landfall though.

Actually his track looks like the 18Z GEFS mean almost to a t. So there is certainly 'some' support for his recurve track. 

[JC-CT]

That looks terrible, can't be JB. 

Looks more like DT

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

That looks terrible, can't be JB. 
 

Looks more like DT

DT has better maps than that!

[jojo762]

Presentation on IR is definitely deteriorating to a degree. Odd thin band of subsidence (or dry air?) has even appeared on both IR and WV to the northwest of the eye in latest GOES16 imagery. 

[MJO812]

Shifted east from 18z

[SN_Lover]

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Presentation on IR is definitely deteriorating to a degree. Odd thin band of subsidence (or dry air?) has even appeared on both IR and WV to the northwest of the eye in latest GOES16 imagery. 

The inner eyewall is attaching itself to the outer eyewall. Saw this happen with Harvey when the inner eyewall died. 

[TimChgo9]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

From Craig Allen:

 

Hurricane hunters looking up at the full moon, in the calm/clear eye of Irma.

looks like they are looking at the moon over a snow drift on a cold, clear, winter night....  amazing.....

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Presentation on IR is definitely deteriorating to a degree. Odd thin band of subsidence (or dry air?) has even appeared on both IR and WV to the northwest of the eye in latest GOES16 imagery. 

Wut

[jojo762]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Wut

lol. 

[illinois]

1 hour ago, SN_Lover said:

If anyone remembers the shed near the carwash Harvey video, that seems to be the safest place in a Hurricane. 

It is because it has smaller surface area. The larger the building the more pressure on the walls. 

[RockyMountainWinter]

First, thank you all for so much of this detailed information in regards to the behavior, strength and direction of this nasty storm. I have learned a great deal about this hurricane. More importantly I hope others have come across this site like I have and have been able to make a more informed decision on their safety. I have family in Hollywood, Florida that have only been there a few years. They have been told there is no need to evacuate because this is overhyped in the media. I showed them pictures of the destruction on the islands and hope this changes their minds. Keep up the good work!

[JC-CT]

lol. 

Link please

[jpeters3]

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

lol. 

 

What you are pointing out may indeed be a subsidence ring between the outer and inner eyewall.  I personally wouldn't go so far as to call the IR presentation "degraded," but based on how things typically go during an ERC, I wouldn't be surprised if the presentation became "less perfect" over the next 12ish hours.

[jojo762]

Just now, JC-CT said:

 

 

Link please

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-48-0-10

[Ralph Wiggum]

The whole argument about "it's weakening", "its an ERC", "dry air is entering Irma", "clearly it is losing it's structure", "the eye wall on the NE side is deteriorating rapidly", "the eye just winked at me", etc are almost all moot points. Anyone who has studied or tracked tropical systems will know there are always fluctuations and there are always random imperfections in even the most perfect looking storms. They dont remain textbook/ meteo 101 hardback cover photo worthy the entire life cycle of the TC. It's not how it works. Some of you guys seriously need to step away from the maps for a couple of hours. 

[OUGrad05]

12 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Presentation on IR is definitely deteriorating to a degree. Odd thin band of subsidence (or dry air?) has even appeared on both IR and WV to the northwest of the eye in latest GOES16 imagery. 

Agreed, looks like perhaps some dry air.  Some if it is easier to see on the loop and doesn't even have to be high res to notice a slight change in structure.  

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/h5-mloop-wv.html

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/h5-mloop-ft.html

[OUGrad05]

2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

 

What you are pointing out may indeed be a subsidence ring between the outer and inner eyewall.  I personally wouldn't go so far as to call the IR presentation "degraded," but based on how things typically go during an ERC, I wouldn't be surprised if the presentation became "less perfect" over the next 12ish hours.

No one is saying the storm is going to get weak, but the presentation has definitely changed over the last couple of hours and yes the ERC may be the biggest culprit.

[tacoman25]

Has Irma set the record yet for longest sustained Cat 5?

[jpeters3]

1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said:

No one is saying the storm is going to get weak, but the presentation has definitely changed over the last couple of hours and yes the ERC may be the biggest culprit.

 

Agreed.  I am interested to see what this would look like after another ERC, given that the core is reasonably wide right now.  Would be wild to see a storm with a giant Isabel-esq eye approaching Florida.

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The whole argument about "it's weakening", "its an ERC", "dry air is entering Irma", "clearly it is losing it's structure", "the eye wall on the NE side is deteriorating rapidly", "the eye just winked at me", etc are almost all moot points. Anyone who has studied or tracked tropical systems will know there are always fluctuations and there are always random imperfections in even the most perfect looking storms. They dont remain textbook/ meteo 101 hardback cover photo worthy the entire life cycle of the TC. It's not how it works. Some of you guys seriously need to step away from the maps for a couple of hours. 

Just because its something that happens "always" in all tropical cyclones doesn't mean that it is a "moot point."... just like when someone dies you don't ignore it because it "always happens." Pointing out various changes in satellite and radar presentation in addition to recon data is critical to short-term and even medium-term forecasts. 

[jh28wd40]

looks like some drier air to the ssw of it. I think it's grabbing that, with that said it's going to be out of the dry air very soon and it will just have some shear (which is light) to deal with. 

[bigtenfan]

33 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi

 

Euro was too far west on Matthew, GFS known bias likely too far east. Landfall between the 2 as 5, 2cnd landfall 4. no changes from am idea

 

 

First of all is he talking about Matthew or Irma? Which tract is actually his prediction?

[toller65]

I was just browsing for some data on Miami topography and ran across this http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/ . 

It would appear to me that if storm surge from Irma exceeds 10 feet, a very high percentage of the city of Miami will be inundated by salt water...

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Just because its something that happens "always" in all tropical cyclones doesn't mean that it is a "moot point."... just like when someone dies you don't ignore it because it "always happens." Pointing out various changes in satellite and radar presentation in addition to recon data is critical to short-term and even medium-term forecasts. 

Wasn't pointing at you....go back the last 2-3 pages. Lots of nitpicking. I understand what you are saying and you are right....short-term some of those structural changes are critical. But in the overall scheme of Irma especially, those minor imperfections we are seeing are likely not going to have massive consequences on strength long-term. 

[jpeters3]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wasn't pointing at you....go back the last 2-3 pages. Lots of nitpicking. I understand what you are saying and you are right....short-term some of those structural changes are critical. But in the overall scheme of Irma especially, those minor imperfections we are seeing are likely not going to have massive consequences on strength long-term. 

What becomes annoying are the "I don't believe the intensity forecast because there is a blemish in the IR presentation" posts.  Sounds like he was just pointing out a feature in the IR.

[OUGrad05]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wasn't pointing at you....go back the last 2-3 pages. Lots of nitpicking. I understand what you are saying and you are right....short-term some of those structural changes are critical. But in the overall scheme of Irma especially, those minor imperfections we are seeing are likely not going to have massive consequences on strength long-term. 

So in a tropical cyclone thread we shouldn't discuss tropical cyclone structure?  That's part of what makes these message boards fun is the discussion and dialogue and learning from each other, if we all sit here in silence because the storm is cycling just like every other TC we should have a moderator post a thread that says "a tropical depression is born, turns into a storm, which then turned into a hurricane that later weakened and fell apart" and no need for comment right?