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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Folks are talking about Irma "scrapping" Miami, when is a scrape not really a scrape with a hurricane this intense?  I look at satellite, radar and modeled paths and see a +\- 50 mile margin of error that is the difference between significant and catastrophic but still really bad either way for those who get "scraped".  Matthew scraped but was less of a rabid beast. 

If the same thing happens to Miami that is happening to PR, then yea, you avoid the full impact of a storm. An eye heading N 50 miles east of Miami could mean the difference between catastrophic damage and maybe a few hours of 60-80mph winds and rain. Irma ha spare those not directly in the eyewall for the most part. 

Obviously, we have to watch how the storm reacts in relation to wind field size. Hope this sheds some light on your confusion.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

If the eye goes within 50 miles of you, there'll probably be hurricane force winds, but the real damaging winds will be in the core. So a tick or two east might cause the impact for the Bahamas to be worse but eastern FL to be relatively spared. But west that same tick or two means catastrophic damage for eastern FL. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the eye goes within 50 miles of you, there'll probably be hurricane force winds, but the real damaging winds will be in the core. So a tick or two east might cause the impact for the Bahamas to be worse but eastern FL to be relatively spared. But west that same tick or two means catastrophic damage for eastern FL. 

Verbatim the Euro has the entire core over land for hours. 

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Uncle Bobby

Uncle Bobby

Posted
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16 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Assuming this ERC is happening, then PR radar seems to indicate the IEW eastern flank is beginning to break down.  Though it may just be gaining some distance from the station. Thoughts?

I'm running GRL3 at TJUA and can tell you that the eastern... "inner"... eyewall looks to be very much deteriorating.  It is about 60nm from TJUA, slicing at a altitude of ~5600 feet.  So that's pretty good data.

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Outer eye-wall appears closed with the inner contracting. Looks about 50% complete and God knows the size and strength after it's complete. 

What will happen is that the inner eyewall will disappear, replaced by a new outer eyewall.  The size of the hurricane will increase, but the winds will most likely go down somewhat.  That is actually a worse situation on landfall as a wider area will be subject to the highest winds.  That is not to say that in 24 hours the storm could restrengthen with new pressure falls.

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Latest microwave imagery shows the double eyewall pretty well. No question it's going through an ERC now, first time I believe since becoming a cat 5. Curious how she'll fare. 

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

gifsBy12hr_08.gif

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Considering the winds they likely experienced I'm surprised there are any relatively intact structures in Barbuda in those pics.  Look at the shed in this one, maybe even stronger than the epic shed in Harvey.

 

If anyone remembers the shed near the carwash Harvey video, that seems to be the safest place in a Hurricane. 

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Amped said:

And with the new eye starting to takeover, this will be a Rita clone by tomorrow morning.

I wonder if this ERC won't end up melding together like it did last night.  It looks like the two separate features are becoming less distinct in the last few hours on radar.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, JC-CT said:
51 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:
Folks are talking about Irma "scrapping" Miami, when is a scrape not really a scrape with a hurricane this intense?  I look at satellite, radar and modeled paths and see a +\- 50 mile margin of error that is the difference between significant and catastrophic but still really bad either way for those who get "scraped".  Matthew scraped but was less of a rabid beast. 
 

It's the difference between cat 4/5 and cat 1 winds

Maybe but i'm not sure it is that simple. 

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect winds come down to 160 with the 11pm advisory. You can't maintain 185 forever, not even a super typhoon has ever done that for more then 48 hours with much higher heat content to work with. 

recon going in, we will find out soon enough, I don't see why it would drop that dramatically unless it's due to the ERC

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

recon going in, we will find out soon enough, I don't see why it would drop that dramatically unless it's due to the ERC

This would be why it drops, otherwise I don't see a reason for it to weak, and other than ERC nothing in the data would suggest weakening.

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