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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Silver Meteor

Silver Meteor

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

So that is 50 ft waves on top of the Storm Surge...so is that 70+ ft?

Also, I have trouble seeing the comparison to Andrew, since it didn't hit Cat 5 status till very late...in the Bahamas. Irma has been a Cat 5 since before the Leewards and has had a long time to build up wave heights. 

A wave cannot be higher than the water is deep. At about 80% of the water's depth the wave has no choice but to break. This is why large ocean waves never reach the coast. If you can get a good vantage point with good visibility you can even see "near shore" waves break on the horizon before reforming to become final beach breakers.

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Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Weakening is relative though, NHC has it at 145 mph at landfall, worst since Andrew.  I don't know if there is a perceptible amount of difference in damage caused by a 145-150 mph Cat 4 vs a 160 mph Cat 5.  Also remember that Irma will be pushing along the surge it raised from when she was 185 mph.

I get that. And not underplaying it by any means. But just saying I think it could be stronger than that

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cut

cut

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Goes 16 is just amazing right now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

 

mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05.thumb.gif.9a3634521ee0c7d31a8bfa8b54caf496.gif

I was just looking at that - those 'ripples' that seem to come off of P.R. - Land interaction?

 

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Michigander

Michigander

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

South Florida needs that track to shift since they aren't remotely prepared  for a hurricane of this magnitude.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/23/bryan-norcross-hero-of-hurricane-andrew-florida-is-not-remotely-prepared-for-the-next-one/

He talks about the worst case, and storm surge for Miami:

Quote

What, in your mind, is the worst-case scenario for a South Florida hurricane?

There are two kind of worst-case scenarios for Greater Miami-Fort Lauderdale. One is Hurricane Andrew coming ashore 10 to 12 miles farther north so that the destruction corridor includes South Beach, the Port of Miami, the banking district, the Miami International Airport, and the Coral Gables and Doral business districts. Besides the unimaginable destruction and widespread homelessness, it would be dagger to the economic heart of the region. Tourism and business would be incapacitated for an indeterminate length of time. With no jobs and housing, people would have to leave. It is impossible to imagine how the region would resurrect itself and how long it would take.

The other worst-case scenario is exactly the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. Because of its size — covering all of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties — that storm would incapacitate the entire region of nearly 5 million people. The estimate is that damage would approach $200 billion.

In addition, there is a little-mentioned threat from a storm that generates a storm surge in the range of 10 feet along the oceanfront. Tens or hundreds of thousands of people would likely be stranded and immobile in their buildings after the storm. People staying in high-rise buildings would be safe, if they rode out the storm in a lower-level hallway. But the grounds and streets around the buildings within range of the storm surge would be deep in sand and debris — as happened in 1926. So people will be stuck in buildings with no power, no water, likely little or no communications, and no way to get out or get people in with supplies and aid for an extended time after the storm.

 

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, cut said:

I was just looking at that - those 'ripples' that seem to come off of P.R. - Land interaction?

 

I think what you're talking about are the gravity waves.

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/04/21/paper-on-gravity-waves-caused-by-hurricanes-and-a-potential-new-way-to-estimate-hurricane-intensity-released-online-in-geophysical-research-letters/

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GFS might have ticked East which is probably just noise and will wobble back and forth with every run. Takeaway for me isnt track but much deeper than past 4 runs in general MIA vicinity. 

Have to wounder if those skyscrapers will hold up against CAT5 winds.... Catastrophic run after run!

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

A wave cannot be higher than the water is deep. At about 80% of the water's depth the wave has no choice but to break. This is why large ocean waves never reach the coast. If you can get a good vantage point with good visibility you can even see "near shore" waves break on the horizon before reforming to become final beach breakers.

And that's why 100 feet rogue waves occur out at sea not near the shore.

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