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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Just now, psv88 said:

I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then...

If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much.

I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here.

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26 minutes ago, PSLwx said:

Live in an independent/assisted senior facility well inland in Stuart FL. If Irma is forecast to hit here as a Cat Five 150 people will have to evacuate by bus to Tarpon Springs. Roads will be gridlocked and I'm afraid the risks for 150 seniors being stuck on a bus are far greater than staying in this very sturdily-built 3-story building. (See Rita/Houston). So it's not just the forecast of where Irma's going but how intense it will be when/if it gets here that's critically important to us. This board is a Godsend in that regard; keep up the great work. [Just to share one of many such stories playing out in SFL; now back to lurking]

I don't think this point has been emphasized enough. The gridlock is going to be incomprehensible as folks try to escape northward out of the peninsula...they need to impose a travel deadline.

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In August 1992 Hurricane Andrew hit Homestead, FL as a Cat 5. Destruction in the southern Miami suburbs was unprecedented. In April 1993 my wife and I took a vacation to south Florida. We drove around the Homestead area. At the time there were undeveloped areas along with ravaged neighborhoods. We drove down Palm Dr. (SW 344th St.) which is the road that leads to the Turkey Point Nuclear Plant. Destruction in the area was total (The nuclear plant was okay and back in operation). Entire forests were ripped out of the ground by the roots and the trees were laying on their sides. The tops of the trees were pointed towards the east as the center of the storm had passed slightly to the north of that street.  Of course they were dead. If you are familiar with south Florida it is topsoil layered on top of coral. The coral has the consistency of concrete and has a tan color. The trees that I saw were covered in this tan dust - it had an apocalyptic look to it. In any case if you live or know people who live in South Florida you should make plans on where you are going to weather the storm. If you have a concrete safe room in your home you might be okay. If you do not you are not going to be safe there. If you are in a low lying area that can flood plan to leave. Same goes if you in the Keys. Know where your neighborhood shelter is located. If you are going to drive north it is 5 hours and 30 minutes to Jacksonville and 4 hours to Orlando - without traffic. Don't wait until later in the week to make this decision. The highways will be jammed once people start to realize what this storm can do. While it is not definite that the storm will make a direct hit in the Miami area the simple fact is that numerous model runs are indicating exactly that. While we all know that the rule regarding these forecast models is to wait until we get closer to the event the simple fact is by the time a Hurricane Watch is issued it will probably be too late to leave due the amount of traffic that will be going on to the highways.          

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4 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much.

I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here.

Destroyed, severely damaged, potato, potato....you get the idea. 

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6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much.

I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here.

I have a friend and her dad who live in Savannah and much to my chagrin they both decided to ride out Matthew instead of evacuating. I've warned them again, but knowing their stubbornness, I suspect they're going to put themselves in danger by staying put.

That said, let me ask a bit of a question for the entire board: how well modeled is the ridge sitting in the Atlantic? I ask this because it's my assumption that with less data than we have over land, it would be harder to model that piece of this puzzle. Is that right or am I (as usual) talking out my butt?

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There was a 172 kt sfmr in the northwest eyewall on the latest pass. Not sure if it's corroborated with other data.  

dude, come on.  you know better.

 

8 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

I'm not sure if this was mentioned already, but it looks like 170+ knot winds were found at the surface according to recon...

Irma.png

rain contaminated like a mf and in shallow waters.  

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