friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Live in an independent/assisted senior facility well inland in Stuart FL. If Irma is forecast to hit here as a Cat Five 150 people will have to evacuate by bus to Tarpon Springs. Roads will be gridlocked and I'm afraid the risks for 150 seniors being stuck on a bus are far greater than staying in this very sturdily-built 3-story building. (See Rita/Houston). So it's not just the forecast of where Irma's going but how intense it will be when/if it gets here that's critically important to us. This board is a Godsend in that regard; keep up the great work. [Just to share one of many such stories playing out in SFL; now back to lurking] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Fair enough. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and then the Euro. Yeah, the 6z GEFS had quite the spread only 48 hour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift It looks like its about 50 miles further west. Which is the difference between hurricane and non-hurricane conditions for SE FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift Much greater impact for the coast however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: It looks like its about 50 miles further west. Which is the difference between hurricane and non-hurricane conditions for SE FL. Oh i dont disagree with that. Just like my two phantom 24-36" blizzard warnings here in CNJ the past 3 years...few miles can make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Much greater impact for the coast however Absolutelt. This would be catastrophic for the entire southeasr coast of Florida (very expensive and vulnerable real estate, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 People are already starting to leave southern and coastal FL. I just checked out the traffic map on Bing for Florida and I-75 on the west coast is already showing heavy traffic northbound in places from Fort Myers up to Inverness as people flee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Well, this latest 12z GFS run should serve as an adequate answer to the poster who was asking why the NHC didn't move the cone more to the east after the 00z and 06z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: People are already starting to leave southern and coastal FL. I just checked out the traffic map on Bing for Florida and I-75 on the west coast is already showing heavy traffic northbound in places from Fort Myers up to Inverness as people flee. They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Much greater impact for the coast however Absolutely. This would be catastrophic for the entire southeasr coast of Florida (very expensive and vulnerable real estate, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet. I agree with you on that, we are hearing nothing here, no one has a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Similar run to the 0z Euro where the western eyewall made to the SE FL Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The Canadian Landfall is way up the coast in North Carolina then continues up the coast going inland around the Delmarva - just remember being 6 days out this track is still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Per the San Juan radar, looks like the eye is jussssst gonna miss the northern PR coast. San Juan will definitely be in the southern eye wall however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet. It is all over the news here in Columbia, SC. SC will be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: They've been in the bullseye for days. I worry about GA/SC more as they may take a direct hit but the media isn't focused on that area yet. Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said: Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC. A lot of stuff I continue to see is OTS, maybe a little rain, I am 147 miles from the coast, and we flood with a bad thunderstorm. I am thankful I found your site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC. Thats good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said: Local media in Charleston at least has been well aware of what's going on for days now. At work we're at our second site-wide message about it and with alternative sources, the local Reddit sub has a pretty good megathread going. It's not about to sneak up on coastal SC. I'm concerned about Georgia where no major hurricane has come ashore since 1898. Lack of experience with hurricanes may well lead to a lack of preparedness, complacency, and/or overconfidence among some of the residents living in coastal areas or adjacent islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 SC Governor has just declared a State of Emergency for South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Question for the meteos here - how much are we learning by the fact that we have a 185mph Cat 5 cane totally visible on a US-based dual-pol radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians. I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians. Maybe older ones, but that is 28 years ago, a generation ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm concerned about Georgia where no major hurricane has come ashore since 1898. Lack of experience with hurricanes may well lead to a lack of preparedness, complacency, and/or overconfidence among some of the residents living in coastal areas or adjacent islands. yes, we are not experienced even inland, I don't even have a clue what needs to be done. Our area is already suffering gas shortage from Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Hurricane hunter flight about to take off - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Starting to see a relatively high amount of lightning activity in the eyewall as it approaches the San Juan radar. Irma wants to be like her older brother Harvey.Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then... Yep. You can find the storm surge mark on the concrete walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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