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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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4 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

With this type of landfall how far in would  tornado's come in inland? Also, the amount of rain. New here sorry if asking in the wrong area

With TCs, the highest probability of tornadoes is always ahead of and to the right of the center track. With Irma's structure and angle of approach, I don't envision tornadoes being a particularly notable threat with it. Of course like everything else that could change at this range. It also depends on what synoptic features it interacts with once inland. TC remnants can and have become prolific tornado-producers when they inject a surge of moisture and vorticity into the warm sector of a mid-latitude trough.

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Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... 

 

The NHC also posts a forecast discussion. This morning in the discussion they talk about why they moved the cone incrementally: "The official forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. " http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060854.shtml

Personally, I learned a lot more about the weather from NWS & NHC forecast discussions that from these threads.....

Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk

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42 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looking rough for Hilton Head & Charleston area right now looking at the hurricane models.  From  there on, it's not far at all from what Hugo did coming inland so far.

Most of those models have the storm going in right around Tybee/HHI. Hugo came in at McClellanville, farther N. That would be a WCS for the Charleston area. The immediate Charleston area didn't get the worst effects from Hurricane Hugo, instead the areas between the landfall and Myrtle Beach got it. 

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah changed, it, still wrecked.. can't find much on St. Marteen right now, but caribbean hurricane network had a post that the news out of that area is grim.

Not surprising..Saint Marteen Dutch side is poorer than the French side...would expect bad news from the West part of the island.

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33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

When Irene hit New England / E NY everybody was prepared for heavy wind and rain but the way it played out was 8-12" of rain over the course of a day w/o much wind of note.  It really just seemed like a really rainy day but bullet dodged. Wrong. The rain pouring out of the hills turned streams to rivers and rivers to violent churning lakes of water.  The destruction was catastrophic and somehow many were caught of guard by the flooding.  The rain sneaks up on you and then it's too late for those in flood prone areas who took it for granted. 

I had a metric sh*t ton of rain in Irene and enough wind to bring a tree down on my house. The creek below us that's rarely more than a muddy trickle was a raging beast 5-6 feet deep and it took out all sorts of backyard stuff that people didn't even consider to be at risk. The only other time I've seen it like that here was Foyd in 1999 when we got 14 inches of rain in an afternoon. That was insanity! A fair portion of my backyard ended up in my front yard but it was ok because the neighbors yard washed into mine to replace what would have been lost :o

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32 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Why haven't they updated the cone yet . Seems to me they don't believe the model runs and still think the trough will not be as strong pulling the system east . This is what the 5th run and still saying direct hit in Florida... 

 

Because you don't significantly move a probability cone 72-84 hours out ... just based on the few model runs we see here ... and some degree of apparent model consensus just in the past 9 hours. These cones take other things into consideration including meteorological experience, judgement, climatology, and other models that we don't necessarily review in detail here. Imagine if they moved the cone eastwards, and at 12z ... a couple of major models or ensemble means shifted back west. You have to realize that the cone is an overall probability, and that further ... its position potentially affects millions of people and evacuation orders. 

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13 minutes ago, hickory said:

Looking at pictures of the island it seems to have some elevation to it, but not too sure if this is the best plan. 

https://twitter.com/richardbranson/status/905415713225146368

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Just a PSA - depending on what Spaghetti Plot you are looking at and what models they include, keep in mind there are a TON of models that are based off the GFS - including HWRF and HMON, etc. etc. It can give a false impression of model consensus because the models derived from the GFS move with the GFS.


The GFS has actually performed quite poorly with Irma, actually even worse than the Canadian, actually. 

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