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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

108 hours EPS low positions. 

eps_slp_lows_wcarib_19.png

Thanks Nick, have been curious about this. Looks like a pretty big consensus right around south Florida. Does look east of 12z though so it has followed the trend so to speak, but it's hard to go against the EPS mean right now when it's crushing every other guidance, human or quantative. 

 

Also so what's interesting about this is that the strongest members of the ensemble are the ones that are to the east or Florida which seems to me to mean that there shouldn't be any weakening even if this thing passes by Floridaand that it may be stronger on its approach to GA/SC/NC than if it were to hit Florida unless there was a period of substantial weakening before LF, but just an observation.

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im pretty sure the handful on here at this hour including myself have been providing the same thoughts for days. I dont think I see any particular poster bouncing all over the place. Could be wrong. And mind you, there has been and is a trend happening past 12-18 hours. This isnt one model run shifting. Go back over past 24 hours which would be 4 tropical guidance forecast track plots. Definitely a certain direction they are heading and that is narrowing the cone quite a bit or moving it East at the very least.

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I'm going to respectfully disagree, the two major models we pay the most attention to for track forecasting and their ensembles have flip flopped several times in the last 24 hours, especially in the GFS' case. Noteworthy that the spread in the ensembles is still quite large despite how close we are getting to the de facto "zero hour" of being at or near 80W (if it reaches 80W and beyond a Florida landfall is nearly inevitable, as we all pretty much know), representative of the degree of options still on the table. As of now none of those potential outcomes look more "certain" than any others, which will probably be well represented in a nudge east for the OFCL on the next NHC full advisory to account for the push east in the 00z models. 

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3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Thanks Nick, have been curious about this. Looks like a pretty big consensus right around south Florida. Does look east of 12z though so it has followed the trend so to speak, but it's hard to go against the EPS mean right now when it's crushing every other guidance, human or quantative. 

The euro did blink a bit with this new 00z run and brought it significantly north when it buried it in Cuba at 12z, so I thought that was kind of interesting. 

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8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Is it just me or do the N and W sides of the storm look like the outflow has been impinged a little or it's encountering a little bit of shear on last several frames of IR? Kind has a little bit of a "squashed" look to it. I could be way off though, just an observation

There's a bit of mid-level NW shear right now on the system IIRC, believe Levi from TT mentioned it yesterday on twitter as well as tonight. Hindering it just a touch...

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Is it just me or do the N and W sides of the storm look like the outflow has been impinged a little or it's encountering a little bit of shear on last several frames of IR? Kind has a little bit of a "squashed" look to it. I could be way off though, just an observation

I've thought similar
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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

There's a bit of mid-level NW shear right now on the system IIRC, believe Levi from TT mentioned it yesterday on twitter as well a second tonight. Hindering it just a touch...

Crazy to think how long the system has had an annual shape to it for and how beautiful it has looked on satellite for a solid 24 hours now, obviously it has to change at some point though. Also just wanted to note that this became a Cat 5 at 8AM yesterday and the NHC forecast keeps this thing at cat 5 intensity until around 8AM Friday which would give it about 72 hours of being at cat 5 which I believe would tie the record for the longest at cat 5 strength with a couple other storms. Somebody posted an image a while ago about the longest lasting cat 5s but can't find it.

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So while the Euro has been pushing Irma ever more west, is the GFS somehow looking to be the correct data set? It seemed to me that the GFS (yes, I know it's still way too early yet) has had Irma tracking slightly off FL Coast or slightly inland around MIA, then straight north with a swift turn into the GA / SC region with a NW track into the central PA region (although no longer Tropical at that point). Thoughts? Or too early yet?


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Personally not buying the E shift lock-stock-and-barrell. I pray it's correct given all the data ingested. A wobble here and a wobble there...T(-)4D. There is no definite discernible scientific reason to conclude an outcome. Even if a Mathew track evolved this b**ch has a much larger wind-field combine that with a track just 10 miles to the W is huge. 
God I pray the E track is real. 12Z will just narrow the posts a little more, beware of that butterfly effect!    

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