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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Just now, TellicoWx said:

Starting to wonder if a sub 900 reading is possible...as bad as it is to say, need this beast to have some land interaction before Florida if that's its final destination. Not alot over open water to slow it down with a no shear environment. Track away from Cuba is a really bad scenario.

 

It's definitely going sub-900.    Many other canes reached sub 900 with less optimal conditions.   Irma still has everything going for it. 

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1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Starting to wonder if a sub 900 reading is possible...as bad as it is to say, need this beast to have some land interaction before Florida if that's its final destination. Not alot over open water to slow it down with a no shear environment. Track away from Cuba is a really bad scenario.

It's possible over that 30-31C bathwater near the Straits and the Bahamas. I'm not sure if it is where it's sitting right now. However, since we're already tested and exceeded MPI values a couple of times with this storm, it's really hard to tell exactly where the bottom is.

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19 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Just the differential shear stress alone would be enough to deform even a very well-reinforced building. 130kt at base vs 200kt at 800' is about a 4x differential.

Scary scenario to contemplate (and worthy of more discussion later if it looks like Miami will take a direct hit).  We've had tornado and weaker hurricane encounters with skyscrapers in US cities, but nothing like the potential that this could bring.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Much further off of Cuba and much more intense at 72

Agreed, so far this run tracking significantly more NE than 12Z.  Let's see if that translates to no Cuba hit and coming much closer to the FL east coast than west coast (which was hit for 12Z) or even missing FL altogether, like the GFS/CMC.  

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed, so far this run tracking significantly more NE than 12Z.  Let's see if that translates to no Cuba hit and coming much closer to the FL east coast than west coast (which was hit for 12Z) or even missing FL altogether, like the GFS/CMC.  

Have never bought the big Cuba impact/ GOM and west coast rider.

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