PressureDrop2017 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: That leaves a lot of folks unaccounted for – concerning. Out of curiosity, do you have a source for that number I could reference? This is live reporting from ABS-TV, located in St. Johns, Antigua. They intend to keep broadcasting throughout the night, so long as it remains possible to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, csnavywx said: They need a version that's coupled to the ocean. Its uncoupled state is currently causing some issues with forecast intensity in Irma (runs with <860mb for instance). True, but that's down the road, let's see what happens. For the example I gave, the HMON was 13 mb off its 54 hr forecast, while the Euro was 49 mb off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'm not sure if they are in a half hourly time zone or not. If they are not the reports appear to be lagging by 30 minutes. I think it's lagging - ADT is GMT-3 (it's 01:34 there right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: That leaves a lot of folks unaccounted for – concerning. Out of curiosity, do you have a source for that number I could reference? https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/?rc=p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It seems like the ABS stream on facebook went down. If there's another place to view it, please post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 978mb in Barbuda as of 1am ADT (12am EDT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: It seems like the ABS stream on facebook went down. If there's another place to view it, please post it. They went off air until 2 am local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: It seems like the ABS stream on facebook went down. If there's another place to view it, please post it. They plan to resume streams at 2:00 AM local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 webcam from St. Barth which may be interesting later http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: It seems like the ABS stream on facebook went down. If there's another place to view it, please post it. Their feed says they will be back at 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Codrington, Barbuda in western eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 sustained 61kts gusting to 82.9kts 12:18 Eastern Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: sustained 61kts gusting to 82.9kts 12:18 Eastern Time Pretty much hurricane conditions, gusts to 95+mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 That whole island may end up in the center. Unreal. God bless those people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This reminds me of when Hurricane Linda hit Socorro as a Cat. 5 back in 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I've been following the HMON and its tracking thus far has been quite accurate. On Sunday runs at 18z, the Euro had the pressure for 00z Wed. at 965 mb. The HMON had the pressure at 903 mb. Actual was 916 MB. Their forecasted positions @ 00z were within 50 miles or so of the actual position. Here is the NWS/NOAA explanation of how HMON was added to the fleet in July. Seems the NHC was impressed with its 3 year trial run, a lot of which was in the Pacific: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/scn17-45discontinue_gdflaaa.htm What is the Mean Absolute Error you have calculated for the HMON track forecasts? So you're saying the U. of Albany verification site is wrong? At 72 hours the ECMWF Mean Average Error is about 150 miles at 120 hours; it's over 600 miles for the HMON. Or, are you going by one vague anecdote? The HMON track forecasts were a disastrous failure for Harvey. as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 UKMET has shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Derecho! said: What is the Mean Absolute Error you have calculated for the HMON track forecasts? So you're saying the U. of Albany verification site is wrong? At 72 hours the ECMWF Mean Average Error is about 150 miles at 120 hours; it's over 600 miles for the HMON. Or, are you going by one vague anecdote? The HMON track forecasts were a disastrous failure for Harvey. as well. I was discussing this particular storm only. The pressure reading differences I gave are not in dispute. NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new hurricane model (HMON) through evaluation of 3-year (2014-2016) retrospective experiments run by EMC showed the HMON model consistently showed improved performance for track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL hurricane model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recon about to make another pass into NE eyewall & Eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Found this cool animation with lightning overlaid. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/category/goes-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, ALhurricane said: UKMET has shifted west. Inland in northern Florida at 144. Looks like it still passes over part of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 80 knots sustained winds on Barbuda / gusting to 105 knots 951mb and falling rapidly So it was as exactly as predicted and feared, this will be a direct hit on the northern island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Approaching Cat 2 (83 knots sustained) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Approaching Cat 2 (83 knots sustained) 110.6 knots gusting Gusting to almost cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Whatever the update interval is for the Barbuda station, it had a 10 mb drop within it. EDIT: That is if I'm using the same one as y'all? https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9761115#sensors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 110.6 knots gusting Gusting to almost cat 4. I'm sorry, very tired. Confused... When did the storm so suddenly die down? Or are you referring to the conditions on the island?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 93 knots sustained 113 knots gusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Inland in northern Florida at 144. Looks like it still passes over part of Cuba. Fairly close to what the last GEFS run shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Convection seems to be exploding again around the center. Man if this undergoes another nightly rapid deepening RIP. That lightning popping near the core just shows the power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, nycemt123 said: I'm sorry, very tired. Confused... When did the storm so suddenly die down? Or are you referring to the conditions on the island? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It's okay. We are getting updates on Irma being reported by a Station on Barbuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.