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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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8 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Intuition suggests that it can't intensify much more.   This storm has an extremely asymmetric relationship

with the surrounding airmasses.  At some point, it will encounter cold upwelling, friction with islands and

eventual dry air ingestion.

  An old adage says that the pinnacle is the most unstable place to be

as it is the easiest place to fall off. 

It's true, after all these years of watching the weather, there have been few Category 5s. The historical record has about 32 Category 5's in the Atlantic, since 1924. So that's about 0.34 Category 5 hurricanes are expected in any given year. They don't usually last over 24 hours being classified as a Category 5.

Hurricane Ivan had the most hours at Category 5, since 2000, that was 60 hours. Other ones have been a mere 24 hours or less. Isabel was 42 hours.

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1 minute ago, cmillzz said:

Aren't the 0z and 12z runs supposed to be more reliable than the 6z and 18z runs? I've heard that a while ago, not sure if it's true anymore.

Modeling has improved since those days, errors tend to not be as large as they once were.

In addition, these 18/06z runs are ingesting Hurricane Hunter data as well as extra balloon soundings from Midwest WFOs. These should be better than a typical 18/06z data ingest.

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as mentioned yesterday -

On 9/4/2017 at 7:17 PM, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

you guys need to look at all aspects, not just what the models are saying.

If the disturbance in the gulf forms into a TD  (which it currently looks like it's close to doing) , the moisture flowing out would strengthen the trough along the east coast more than expected...and could cause a further north trend of Irma.    You can already see on satellite and water vapor, moisture is flowing out towards that trough...and all the way up east coast.  

 

also, these little mini-land interactions (Islands) will assist Irma to expand outwards in time.  Just like all hurricanes do when interacting with land.

Typhoon Haiyan needs to be remembered here.  It was the same intensity when hitting the Phillipines .  The residents there said "we knew big hurricane was coming, but didn't know it was going to be Tsunami...if they would of said Tsunami, we would of left".   That's basically what a hurricane like this creates...a 25 foot Tsunami.  (surge)  People think surge comes in slowly.. but it doesn't.  It truly is like a Tsunami, and areas along the coast,that are getting a direct hit should be preparing for such.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

If they take this as genuine and upgrade to 195mph based on this, we pass Hurricane Allen, which holds the current record.

Why would they not take it as legit? Never seen a  dropsonde observation be disregarded before IIRC.

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12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's true, after all these years of watching the weather, there have been few Category 5s. The historical record has about 32 Category 5's in the Atlantic, since 1924. So that's about 0.34 Category 5 hurricanes are expected in any given year. They don't usually last over 24 hours being classified as a Category 5.

Hurricane Ivan had the most hours at Category 5, since 2000, that was 60 hours. Other ones have been a mere 24 hours or less. Isabel was 42 hours.

Thank you.

I'm one of many here that are waiting for the definitive signal to find out which path Irma takes.

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9 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I see 1 fish member also. Anything still possible. 

The idea with the ensembles is to give weight to the cluster, to the mean. Having one member OTS doesn't suggest you weight that outcome as equally possible. The mean track for 18z is landfall SW Fla and then zig zag up the state.

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Inbound 154-156kt surface winds (NW):

231230 1725N 06024W 6971 02706 9576 +082 +047 059149 152 134 045 00
231300 1724N 06023W 6974 02656 9522 +085 +046 059158 161 151 063 00
231330 1723N 06022W 6955 02640 9472 +088 +048 057153 161 154 066 00
231400 1723N 06021W 6962 02582 9406 +098 +050 062136 143 156 061 03
231430 1722N 06020W 6989 02504 9345 +115 +052 066123 135 154 003 03
231500 1721N 06020W 6954 02503 9290 +132 +053 070108 122 138 000 03

 

Outbound 153kt surface winds (SE):

232400 1705N 06011W 6965 02492 9259 +166 +086 230109 118 133 004 00
232430 1704N 06010W 6986 02537 9369 +119 +087 228132 133 153 032 03
232500 1703N 06009W 6937 02658 9453 +105 +080 227135 137 153 064 00
232530 1702N 06008W 6980 02683 9551 +087 +076 230135 138 147 063 00
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SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 60.5W
ABOUT  85 MI...140 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT  90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

They kept the winds at 185 for 8 pm

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